Group 1 - China's economic growth has been remarkable, achieving an average of 9.7% from 1978 to 1995 and projected to maintain an average of 8.3% until 2024, making it the fastest-growing country during these periods [1][3] - By 2024, China's GDP per capita is expected to reach $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold of $14,005, indicating significant economic progress [1] - China's growth has positively impacted not only East Asian economies but also contributed to global economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The sustained high growth in China post-reform is attributed to continuous improvements in productivity and the emergence of new high-value industries, leveraging the advantages of latecomers [3] - The shift towards labor-intensive industries after 1978 allowed China to effectively utilize its comparative advantages, which is a key reason for its rapid economic development [3] Group 3 - The recurring "China collapse theory" stems from historical failures of many developing countries that adopted capital-intensive import substitution strategies, leading to resource misallocation and corruption [4][5] - Contrary to mainstream economic theories that advocate for marketization and privatization, China's gradual dual-track reform has resulted in stable and rapid growth, avoiding the stagnation seen in other countries [5] Group 4 - Future economic prospects for China remain optimistic, with potential for over 8% growth until 2035 and 6% growth until 2049, despite challenges like aging population and trade tensions [6] - If growth expectations are met, by 2049, China's GDP per capita could reach half of that of the U.S., and its economic size could be double that of the U.S., enhancing its global economic position [6]

本次活动由北京大学国家发展研究院、北京大学新结构经济学研究院、北京大学出版社共同举办，北大国发院传播中心主任王贤青全程主持，北大出版社学 科副总编林君秀出席活动。 在主题演讲中，林毅夫回顾了《解读中国经济》一书的缘起和出版历程，阐释了中国经济增长的内在逻辑，回应了"中国崩溃论"等观点，并在当前面临中美 贸易摩擦等新挑战的情形下，对中国未来发展的前景给出了客观理性的预期。 中国日报5月6日电（记者 欧阳诗嘉）近日，北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长、新结构经济学研究院院长、南南合作与发展学院名誉院长林毅夫，携其经 典著作《解读中国经济》参加承泽论坛第39期暨北大博雅讲坛第656期活动，并做"中国经济的内在逻辑与新挑战"的主题演讲。 林毅夫在发表主题演讲 林毅夫指出，对中国经济前景的判断要基于中国继续发展的潜力，也即中国的后来者优势还有多大。这种后来者优势可以用中国人均GDP与美国的差距水平 来衡量。按照德国、日本、韩国的历史经验，并以2019年中国与以美国为代表的发达国家的技术差距来衡量，从2019年到2035年，中国应该还有16年8%以 上的增长潜力，有可能实现5%—6%的增长；从2036年到2049年，中国应该 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of US tariff policies on Chinese exports is significant but not as severe as some institutions predict, due to China's large economic scale and policy flexibility [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - China's export to the US reached $524.656 billion in 2024, accounting for 14.65% of total exports [2]. - The government is implementing policies to boost domestic consumption, such as subsidies for replacing old appliances and a $200 billion plan by JD.com to support domestic sales [2]. - There is a need to enhance consumer willingness to spend, which is currently hindered by unstable income expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Dynamics - Investment remains a key driver of economic growth, particularly in technology innovation and industrial upgrading, contrary to the view that China should shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth [2][3]. - China's actual consumption potential is not fully realized, necessitating a wider range of quality products and improved market confidence to stimulate spending [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - China has maintained an average growth rate of 9.7% for 16 years until 1995 and 8.3% from 1995 to 2024, with a per capita GDP of $13,445 in 2024, nearing high-income status [3][4]. - Unless a global economic crisis akin to the 1929 stock market crash occurs, achieving a 5% growth rate remains highly probable, with potential for 5.3% growth without US tariff influences [3][4]. Group 4: Structural Advantages and Reform - The key to China's sustained high growth post-reform is the continuous improvement of productivity and the emergence of new productive forces through technological innovation [4][5]. - China's gradual dual-track reform has allowed it to maintain stable growth, contrasting with other countries that faced stagnation or crises after market reforms [5].

Core Viewpoint - Lin Yifu emphasizes that China's economic advantages lie in talent, a large domestic market, and a complete industrial chain, which are crucial for addressing new challenges in the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - Lin Yifu discusses the recurring "China collapse theory," attributing it to the misallocation of resources and corruption stemming from government interventions in developing countries post-World War II [1][2]. - He argues that the mainstream economic theory's prescription of marketization and privatization has led to stagnation and crises in many countries, while China's gradual dual-track reform has facilitated stable and rapid growth [2][3]. - Despite challenges such as an aging population and trade tensions with the U.S., China is projected to maintain a growth rate of 5% to 6% until 2035, leveraging its advantages [3][4]. Group 2: Future Projections - If growth expectations are met, by 2049, China's per capita GDP could reach half of that of the U.S., and its economic size could be twice that of the U.S., altering the dynamics of U.S.-China relations [4]. - Lin Yifu highlights that China's continued development will not only support its modernization goals but also contribute to global stability [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Miracle - From 1978 to 1995, China experienced an average growth rate of 9.7%, and from 1995 to 2024, an average of 8.3%, making it the fastest-growing economy without systemic financial crises [6][7]. - By 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to be $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold, showcasing its significant impact on the East Asian economy and global recovery [6][7]. - The key to China's sustained growth lies in its ability to enhance productivity and leverage its latecomer advantage through technology absorption and innovation [7].