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锂电4月洞察:电车储能销量持续走高,钴价止涨正极盈利企稳
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-07 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant increase in sales for electric vehicles and energy storage, with lithium carbonate prices declining by 4.8% to 70,000 yuan per ton [1][5] - In March 2025, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [1][20] - The transition from lead-acid to lithium batteries in the start-stop battery market is becoming clearer, driven by performance improvements and cost reductions in sodium batteries [3][12] Summary by Sections Monthly Insights - In April 2025, the lithium battery-related sectors, except for new energy vehicles, experienced varying degrees of decline, with significant drops in the phosphate iron lithium positive electrode and lithium battery copper foil sectors [2] - The monthly transaction volume for most sectors decreased significantly, while the new energy vehicle sector saw a slight increase in transaction volume [2] Research Topic - The start-stop battery market is in a growth phase, with lead-acid batteries currently dominating but facing competition from lithium and sodium batteries [3][12] - The market for start-stop batteries is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 14.5% from 2024 to 2032 [14] Industry Insights - In March 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China and Europe were strong, with sales of 1.128 million and 304,000 units respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36% and 26% [4][20] - Energy storage installations in China and the US saw significant growth, with domestic installations reaching 3.4 GWh in March, a year-on-year increase of 57% [24][27] Lithium Battery Production Tracking - In May 2025, lithium battery production is expected to fluctuate between -5% and 13% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth ranging from -1% to 41% [5][30] - The report indicates that the lithium battery sector is entering a seasonal low period, with production adjustments anticipated [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the lithium battery sector is poised for a BETA-level market driven by both industry demand and technological advancements, recommending key players such as CATL and EVE Energy [6][39]
电力设备与新能源行业研究:锂电4月洞察:电车储能销量持续走高,钴价止涨正极盈利企稳
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-06 14:58
2025 年 5 月 6 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入(维持评级) 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师:姚遥(执业 S1130512080001) yaoy@gjzq.com.cn 锂电 4 月洞察:电车储能销量持续走高,钴价止涨正极盈利企稳 本月行业重要变化: 1)锂电:4 月 30 日,碳酸锂报价 7.0 万元/吨,较上月下降 4.8%;氢氧化锂报价 7.0 万元/吨,较上月下降 0.4%。 2)整车:2025 年 3 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 113 万辆,同比+35.5%,环比+35.9%;1~3 月累计批发 285 万辆, 同比+43%。 行情回顾: 2025 年 4 月以来,锂电关联板块中除新能源车环节外,均有不同幅度的下跌,磷酸铁锂正极、锂电铜箔和柴发产业链 等环节跌幅较大,相对沪深 300 的涨跌幅超额分别为-8%、-7%和-5%。多数环节月度成交额较上月大幅下跌,只有新 能源车的月度成交额环比提升,市场关注度不减。锂电关联版块多数环节 3 年历史估值分位处于低值,锂电电解液、 负极和智能驾驶的 3 年历史估值分位仅个位数区间,未来存在估值修复的空间。 本月研究专题: ...