周期板块景气扩张
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朝闻国盛:周期板块景气预期开启扩张
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-10 01:15
Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that the cyclical sector is expected to enter an expansion phase, with both cyclical and growth sectors currently in the analysts' expansion zone, resonating with the industry mainline model [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative amount of pending foreign exchange settlement funds since 2022 is approximately 1.13 trillion USD, with a weighted average exchange rate of 7.1 [2] - It is projected that the USD to RMB exchange rate will likely stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 in 2026, with an overall upward trend but limited potential for sustained unilateral appreciation [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report lists the top-performing industries for January, March, and the past year, with notable performances in the oil and petrochemical sector (32.0% increase over the past year) and construction materials (42.7% increase) [1] - Conversely, the report identifies the worst-performing industries, including defense and military (-6.7% in January) and pharmaceuticals (-3.6% in January) [1] Group 3: Company Analysis - Huijia Times - Huijia Times is recognized for its competitive advantages, including a dense store network and deep local market insights, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers in the Xinjiang region [6] - The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats and exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to open a second growth curve [6] - Revenue projections for Huijia Times from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively [6]