□本报记者 王雪青 2026年1月4日，中欧瑞博公众号更新了新一年的策略展望——这是吴伟志亲笔写下的第140篇"伟志思 考"。 从2014年到2026年，12年来，他几乎从不停笔：最早写"投资像种庄稼""别拔苗助长"，后来用"春夏秋 冬"标注市场的季节更替，再用"树粮菜"拆解不同投资风格的收益与代价。他把一位基金经理最难被量 化的资产——思想——沉淀成一套可追溯、可复盘、可传承的方法论；也把一家机构的成长轨迹，写成 一份长期的运行日志。 2014年7月初，A股在阶段底部徘徊。吴伟志却旗帜鲜明地提出："这里是播种的时节，我们会保持较高 的仓位。"这一年，"伟志思考"多次用"播种"来形容投资策略，核心表达是"底部确认""保持耐心""不要 在犹豫纠结中错过春播好时机"。随后，A股市场开启了一段趋势性上涨行情。 事后来看，吴伟志"从估值、利率与政策态度"综合判断市场"土壤已变"的框架，与桥水强调的"宏观因 子驱动资产价格"有异曲同工之妙。 更难的是在市场高潮中感知风险。2015年，吴伟志在市场快速上涨中提示"下车"。2015年5月，他撰文 称，"珍惜涨潮时光""更重要的是能够在退潮之前或退潮初期及时下车"。 2015 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that under the current weak replenishment cycle, A-shares are expected to outperform other asset classes, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to A-shares while reducing commodity assets [2][24][25] - The report predicts a weak recovery in A-share earnings, with a projected growth rate of 0-5% for the second half of 2025, and a valuation contribution of 0-7%, leading to an expected median increase of 7% in A-shares [39][40] - The report identifies small-cap stocks, strong reversals, high valuations, and high profitability as the dominant market styles for the second half of 2025, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [46][47][48] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as a high-probability choice for index breakout, supported by stable capital market commitments and sufficient policy reserves [54] - The report outlines two scenarios for industry allocation: one under a fluctuating market and another under a potential upward breakout, indicating the need for strategic planning [54] - The report suggests that the AI and humanoid robotics industries are expected to experience significant growth, with a focus on high-growth and consumption styles in the top ten recommended industries for the second half of 2025 [24][39]

Group 1 - The article highlights the career trajectory of a prominent analyst,牟一凌, who transitioned from an intern to a chief strategist and has recently left his position at Minsheng Securities amid a wave of mergers in the Chinese securities industry [1][4] - In 2021,牟一凌 returned to Minsheng Securities as the chief strategist after a decade of experience, having previously worked at various firms including Guotai Junan and Kaiyuan Securities, where he gained recognition for his market insights [2][4] - His notable predictions included a bullish stance on cyclical stocks during market fluctuations, which later proved accurate as these stocks outperformed others in 2021 [2][3] Group 2 - The merger between Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities marks a significant event in the industry, with Guolian acquiring a 30.30% stake in Minsheng for 9.1 billion yuan, leading to a complete takeover by the end of 2024 [4][5] - Following the merger, the new entity, Guolian Minsheng Securities, is undergoing integration challenges, with a reported 40.80% decline in net profit for the year 2024, indicating difficulties in recovering from the impacts of the merger [1][4] - The restructuring of research operations within the merged entity poses challenges, as both firms have distinct strengths, with Minsheng excelling in investment banking and Guolian in wealth management and fund advisory [5]