Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

《基金经理投资笔记》宏观策略系列 把脉经济周期拐点 实现财富管理升级 作者：魏凤春（博士），创金合信基金首席经济学家 上期基金经理投资笔记从增长、通胀和流动性三大基础因子出发，分析了大类资产配置的基准线。其中提到主要由政 策偏好决定的风险溢价这一因子非常难以量化。2025年最后一周的首席视点将会重点分析政策因子，推演其中的交易 逻辑，至此，2026年投资策略的整体分析将会完成。 策略研究讲究"道法术器"、"谋定而后动"，谋定所指的道与法，在本周首席视点中将会完成，年后的首席视点将会侧 重术与器。也就是说，元旦新年之后，我们将会从过去一个半月的"坐而论道"转向"起而行之"。其中隐含的意思是， 再继续等待就有些靡费时日了。 一、政策分析的基本逻辑 政策因子一直是资产配置中非常具有"艺术性"的代表性内容，此处的艺术性，特指因各具特色，分歧极大，事前无法 验证对错。我们在长期的实践中认识到做好政策交易，首先要做好政策分析，而要做好政策分析，首要的工作是要明 确政府的性质。其次要采取投资者易于理解的方法来解释和推演政策。这里还有个前提，那就是政策实施是有规律 的，政府行为不是"黑匣子"，"包打听"式的政策分析并不能准确 ...

Core Insights - Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans have maintained their positions in broad-based ETFs, providing support to the stock market, with minor adjustments in sector-specific ETFs [1][2] - As of the end of Q3, the total ETF holdings of Central Huijin Investment and its affiliates reached approximately 1.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarterly increase of over 200 billion yuan [1][5] ETF Holdings Stability - Central Huijin Investment has not made any adjustments to its ETF holdings, maintaining significant positions in 15 ETFs where it holds over 20% of the total shares [2] - Central Huijin Asset also retained its holdings in 12 ETFs, with no changes reported in the third quarter [2] Minor Adjustments in Specialized Asset Management Plans - Central Huijin Asset's specialized asset management plans made slight adjustments, including a redemption of 800,000 shares in the Guotai CSI 800 Automotive and Parts ETF, reducing its holdings to 61.7069 million shares [3] - The plans also completely divested from the Huaxia Hang Seng China Enterprises High Dividend ETF, which had 80.5888 million shares at the end of Q2 [3] Performance of Specialized Asset Management Plans - In the first half of the year, the specialized asset management plans increased their holdings in certain ETFs while reducing positions in others, such as the Fuguo CSI Tourism Theme ETF [4] Significant Growth in ETF Scale - The equity market saw a substantial rebound in Q3, contributing to floating profits for Central Huijin Investment's ETF holdings, with notable gains from major ETFs like the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, which generated over 55 billion yuan in floating profits [5] - The best-performing ETF in Q3 was the Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF, which surged over 80% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The disclosure of the third-quarter reports indicates that Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans have maintained their positions in broad-based ETFs, providing support to the stock market, while making minor adjustments to some thematic ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Holdings - Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans have not made significant adjustments to their ETF holdings, with a notable presence in the top ten holders of various ETFs [2]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the total ETF holdings of Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans exceeded 1.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous quarter [1][5]. - Central Huijin Investment was among the top ten holders in 21 ETFs at the end of the second quarter, with 15 ETFs having over 20% of their total shares held by them [2]. Group 2: Thematic ETF Adjustments - The asset management plans under Central Huijin made minor adjustments to their ETF holdings, including a redemption of 800,000 shares in the Guotai CSI 800 Automotive and Parts ETF [3]. - The asset management plans primarily focus on thematic ETFs and have a higher frequency of adjustments compared to Central Huijin Investment's strategy of investing in broad-based ETFs [3][4]. - As of June 30, the two specialized asset management plans held approximately 10 billion yuan in ETFs, which is relatively small compared to the broader holdings of Central Huijin Investment [3]. Group 3: Performance and Gains - The equity market experienced a significant rebound in the third quarter, leading to substantial unrealized gains for the ETFs held by Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans [5]. - Notable contributions to unrealized gains came from major broad-based ETFs, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF yielding over 55 billion yuan in gains [5]. - The best-performing ETF in the third quarter was the Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Thematic ETF, which saw a quarterly increase of over 80% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The life insurance sector is expected to continue its growth momentum, driven by effective cost control and product optimization, which will enhance the new business value margin (NBVM) and new business value (NBV) [3][5] - Non-auto insurance is emerging as a new growth driver, with increasing premium contributions and regulatory support expected to improve underwriting performance [3][5] - Investment strategies will be crucial for valuation recovery, with a focus on long-term interest rates and equity market performance [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Overview - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with the Shenwan Insurance Index rising by 18.79% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [11] - Regulatory policies are encouraging long-term capital inflows into the market, with insurance companies' investment in stocks and equity funds exceeding 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 12% of their total investments [12][15] 2. Asset Side: Stability in Fixed Income, Growth in Equity - The net investment yield for major insurance companies has faced pressure, with varying total investment returns across firms [27][28] - The insurance industry is expected to increase its allocation to equity assets, with an average investment weight of 13.75% in stocks and funds as of mid-2025, reflecting a 1.07 percentage point increase from 2024 [34][38] 3. Liability Side: Easing Cost Pressures and Expanding Spread - Life insurance companies have reported positive growth in new premium income, particularly in the bancassurance channel, while the individual insurance channel has faced challenges [44][46] - The shift towards participating insurance products is evident, with significant increases in their share of new premiums, indicating a strategic response to lower interest rates [51]

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Group 1 - Central Huijin significantly increased its holdings in core broad-based ETFs such as CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 during Q2, with total investments amounting to 202.47 billion yuan [1] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF saw the largest increase, with Central Huijin purchasing 10.874 billion units, amounting to approximately 42.21 billion yuan, raising its shareholding from 29.78% at the end of last year to 40.26% [3] - Central Huijin also made substantial purchases in multiple CSI 1000 ETFs, including 5.655 billion units of Southern CSI 1000 ETF (approximately 13.42 billion yuan) and 3.805 billion units of Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (approximately 9.07 billion yuan) [3] Group 2 - Additional purchases included 8.183 billion units of Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (approximately 22.22 billion yuan) and 3.366 billion units of Southern CSI 500 ETF (approximately 18.91 billion yuan) [3] - In April, Central Huijin expressed a strong outlook on the development of the Chinese capital market and committed to continue increasing its ETF holdings [3] - The announcement in April also included a clear positioning of "quasi-stabilization fund" and a statement from the central bank regarding support for relending [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that under the current weak replenishment cycle, A-shares are expected to outperform other asset classes, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to A-shares while reducing commodity assets [2][24][25] - The report predicts a weak recovery in A-share earnings, with a projected growth rate of 0-5% for the second half of 2025, and a valuation contribution of 0-7%, leading to an expected median increase of 7% in A-shares [39][40] - The report identifies small-cap stocks, strong reversals, high valuations, and high profitability as the dominant market styles for the second half of 2025, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [46][47][48] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as a high-probability choice for index breakout, supported by stable capital market commitments and sufficient policy reserves [54] - The report outlines two scenarios for industry allocation: one under a fluctuating market and another under a potential upward breakout, indicating the need for strategic planning [54] - The report suggests that the AI and humanoid robotics industries are expected to experience significant growth, with a focus on high-growth and consumption styles in the top ten recommended industries for the second half of 2025 [24][39]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the small-cap indices, particularly the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000, has outperformed larger indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext, indicating a strong preference for small-cap stocks in a market characterized by ample liquidity and moderate economic fundamentals [2][4]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 2000 index has achieved a year-to-date increase of 13.49%, while the CSI 1000 index has risen by 5.36%, outperforming U.S. stocks [2]. - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has surged by 28.93%, exceeding the CSI 2000 index by 15.44%, and the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) has increased by 13.56%, outperforming the CSI 1000 index by 8.20% [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The strong performance of these indices is attributed to multiple interest rate cuts and a clear stance from the central bank on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which has enhanced market liquidity and favored technology growth [7]. - The CSI 1000 index is closely linked to concepts such as "specialized and innovative" and "new quality productivity," while the CSI 2000 index, with its smaller market capitalization, has greater elasticity, making it a favored target for funds in the absence of major market trends [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has set 18 new historical highs this year, with a remarkable increase of 71% from last year, indicating strong excess returns [7]. - The ETFs utilize a three-layer enhancement mechanism to amplify returns: 1. Industry rotation through a quantitative model that captures hotspots like AI and high-end manufacturing [9] 2. Stock selection using a multi-factor model to identify undervalued small-cap stocks [9] 3. Risk control measures to limit industry deviation and manage tracking errors [9]. - Recent inflows into these ETFs suggest a market shift towards a more aggressive investment stance, making small-cap index-enhanced ETFs worthy of consideration for portfolio inclusion [9].

Group 1 - China's economic data for May indicates a shift in growth momentum from exports and investments to consumption, with retail sales growth reaching a high point since 2024, exceeding market expectations [2] - The A-share market has shown a significant reduction in trading volume, with the major indices collectively declining, reflecting a lack of incremental capital [2][3] - Defensive sectors, particularly liquor and banking, have demonstrated stronger performance amidst market adjustments, with notable gains in companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shanxi Fenjiu [2] Group 2 - The recent adjustment of the "Everyday Brand 100 Index" included nine new companies, with Gujing Gongjiu showing a remarkable weekly increase of 4.4% [4] - Gujing Gongjiu's chairman emphasized the need to address long-term industry challenges while maintaining sustainable growth, aiming to keep its market share in Anhui above 60% [4] - Vipshop, another new entrant in the index, has seen a slight increase in stock price, focusing on providing high-quality products and services to enhance shareholder returns [5] Group 3 - The liquor industry is currently in a valuation recovery phase, presenting short-term investment opportunities as defensive sectors regain investor interest [6] - The liquor ETF has experienced a decline of 9.42% in 2025, underperforming the broader market, yet its share count has increased by 15.07 million, indicating continued investor interest [7] - The index tracked by the liquor ETF focuses on companies involved in the production of various alcoholic beverages, with major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for over 50% of the index weight [7]