Core Insights - The uncertainty of US tariff policies in the first half of 2025 has exacerbated global economic instability, with major economies in Europe and the US experiencing continuous contraction in manufacturing PMI, while China's manufacturing PMI has stabilized and rebounded, injecting some vitality into global manufacturing [1] - The Wind Commodity Index led major asset classes in the first half of 2025, with a significant divergence in commodity market performance, where precious metals and some non-ferrous metals performed strongly, while chemical and black metals were dragged down by weak demand [1] Asset Performance Overview - The Wind Commodity Index increased by 13.81% in the first half of 2025, compared to 8.15% in 2024 and -2.50% in 2023 [2] - The A-share market (万得全A) rose by 5.83%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 5.50% [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 10.79% [2] Commodity Futures Market - As of June 2025, the domestic commodity futures market saw a year-on-year increase in settled funds by 16.05%, totaling 428.37 billion yuan, driven by geopolitical risks and concerns over the US dollar, leading to significant increases in gold holdings [4] - The trading volume in the domestic futures market increased by 20.68% year-on-year, reaching 339.73 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's trading volume exceeded 115 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [9] Financial Futures Market - Financial futures accounted for 33.13% of total trading volume in the first half of 2025, up from 28.54% in 2024 [11] - The top trading company in terms of volume was Guotai Junan Futures, with a total trading volume of 737.33 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 54.07% [13][14] Trading and Delivery Rankings - Guotai Junan Futures ranked first in both buying and selling delivery volumes, with a buying delivery volume of 257,779 contracts and a selling delivery volume of 378,055 contracts [15][17] - In terms of profitability in popular futures, Zhongcai Futures topped the gold futures profit ranking [18][19] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector led the trading volume with 59.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.05%, while the chemical sector also saw significant growth [23] - The precious metals industry saw a capital inflow of 46.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.37% [26] Price Movements - Gold futures led the commodity market with continuous price increases, while most energy and chemical products experienced declines [39] - The delivery amount for gold reached 15.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 529.41% [42]

【本周商品市场整体下行，CTA趋势策略净值修复】本周商品指数下跌 1.01%，分板块来看，贵金属指 数上涨 0.07%，能化指数下跌 0.40%，农产品指数下跌 0.91%，工业品指数下跌 1.34%，有色金属指数 下跌 1.62%，黑色金属指数下跌 4.25%。分品种来看，原油指数上涨 2.95%，黄金指数上涨 1.47%。本 周趋势策略净值修复，CTA 中短周期策略指数上涨 0.25%，产品池中上涨产品占比 68%，CTA 中长周 期策略指数上涨 0.32%，产品池中上涨产品占比 72%。CTA 量化套利策略指数上涨 0.05%，产品池中上 涨产品占比 38%。后续商品市场分化料将持续，各板块走势可能改变，有色强势或继续保持，黑色趋 势下行可能中止，原油企稳带动能化板块有所企稳但全面向上还需进一步信号，农产品内部继续分化， CTA 策略全面增配可能还需等待，且内部分化可能增大。中短周期策略环境中性偏差，日内流动性回 升，历史分位数在 0.7 左右；日内波动性回落，历史分位数 0.1 左右；趋势流畅性回落，接近历史最低 值。中长周期策略环境中性偏差，市场的趋势流畅性小幅回升，品种趋势流畅性在 0.4 左右， ...