16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-26） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量 3278.4 万吨， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 环比减少 238.0 万吨。47 港外矿到港量大幅回升 569.6 | | | | | 万吨至 2939.5 万吨。日均铁水产量环比回落 0.6 万吨至 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | | | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水 | | | | | 平，内需疲弱难改。港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 | | | | | 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润 | | | | | 再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 率不大，铁矿价格高位偏强震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保 | | | | | 供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦盘面大 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤 | | （元/吨） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | 5月-1月 | | | 9月-1月 | | 9月-5月 | | 2025/11/25 | 21 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/24 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/21 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/20 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/19 | 32 . | 6 | 0 0 . | | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 25, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][38][48] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal - The basis of thermal coal from November 18 to November 24, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The basis, price ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil on November 24 was - 8.81 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 75 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2297 yuan/ton [9] - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rubber on November 24 was - 370 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 29 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on November 24 was 161.0 yuan/ton [21] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on November 24 was 90 yuan/ton [30] (2) London Market - On November 24, 2025, for LME non - ferrous metals, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 24.88 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 24 was - 130 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 49 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.88 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 24 was 12.85 [49] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 156 [49]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on November 24, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol rose over 3%, glass nearly 3%, and ethylene glycol (EG), corn, cotton yarn, and polysilicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and pure benzene fell over 2%, and styrene (EB), coking coal, palm oil, and urea dropped over 1% [5][6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84%. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.06%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.15% [6]. - As of 15:18 on November 24, in terms of capital flow, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an inflow of 1.456 billion yuan, Shanghai Silver 2602 had an inflow of 260 million yuan, and Shanghai Copper 2601 had an inflow of 240 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 7.289 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 4.312 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 2.562 billion yuan [6]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened low and trended higher, showing a strong oscillation. Data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but with a data vacuum before the next Fed meeting, the uncertainty of rate cut expectations is high, and the market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively large, causing the US dollar index to continue to rebound [8]. - Nvidia's strong earnings boosted optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand. Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in Q2 next year. Refined copper imports decreased month-on-month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have also been accumulating [8]. - The 770th document has not been implemented, causing cautious operations in recycled copper rod enterprises. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month-on-month decline of over 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [8]. - Overall, the Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a stalemate, and the market believes the probability of a rate cut in December is small, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the off-season demand and increasing SHFE inventories have weakened market confidence. Short-term copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to Fed rate cut expectations [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, dropping nearly 3% during the day. As of October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 21, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In October, China's energy storage battery production was 54.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, year-on-year increases of 21.1% and 20% [11]. - The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and demand. Although there is news of the resumption of production at the Jiuxiaowo mine, the authenticity is uncertain. Until the actual negative impact is realized, there is support at the bottom of the market [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The end of the peak demand season, combined with increased production and exports, has led to a supply surplus in the crude oil market [12][13]. - EIA data shows that refined oil inventories increased more than expected, but due to increased net exports, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected. US crude oil production is near a record high. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [12][13]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand due to the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US manufacturing index, and the unclear prospects of US interest rate cuts. The supply surplus in the crude oil market has become a consensus, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year-on-year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) [14]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed performance. The national asphalt shipments increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. Asphalt refinery inventory ratios remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years [14]. - With the decline in crude oil prices and the end of road construction in the north, demand is expected to weaken further. With the stable production of some refineries, the asphalt operating rate will increase. Asphalt futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly compared to last year [16]. - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%. The production ratio of standard-grade PP increased to around 29%. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years [16]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Downstream demand is in the late peak season, and orders are limited. The lack of large-scale purchases and the absence of anti-competition policies have led to limited market support. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with stable orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film peak season is ending, and demand in the north is starting to decline [17]. - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and traders are cautious about the future market. Without anti-competition policies, and with the supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastic prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][19]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased slightly to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly, remaining at a relatively low level [20]. - India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC and the likely cancellation of anti-dumping duties have alleviated concerns about exports to India, and export orders increased last week. Social inventories increased slightly last week and remain high, indicating significant inventory pressure [20]. - In 2025, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. With positive chlor-alkali comprehensive profits and new production capacity coming online, the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly recently [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and trended higher, with a decline during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased, and the self-pickup price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal also decreased [21]. - In October, China's coal imports decreased year-on-year. The utilization rate of coking coal mine production capacity increased slightly. As of November 16, the cumulative import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was large, and the daily customs clearance vehicles may increase next week [21][22]. - Under the winter coal supply and price stabilization policy, the tight supply expectation is partially offset. Mine inventories have increased significantly, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Steel mill operating rates and molten iron production increased this week, but profits are weakening. There is potential bullishness in mine production cuts at the end of the year, so be cautious about potential price rebounds [22]. Urea - The futures price opened low and trended lower, showing a downward oscillation. The spot price of urea increased due to the continuous rebound of futures prices and improved downstream demand, but since the weekend, downstream resistance to high prices has led to weak order receipts and stable prices [23]. - Before the seasonal shutdown of gas-based devices, the daily output of upstream factories is expected to fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed, and downstream demand needs verification. Last week, demand was strong, and orders were good. Northeast fertilizer preparation has begun, and compound fertilizer factory operating rates have rebounded [23]. - After the price rebound, downstream feedback has been poor, and order receipts have been weak since the weekend. Domestic demand cannot support high prices, and the Indian tender price has not boosted the market. However, exports continue, and there is still demand support from off-season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [23].

| | 11/25 21:30 美国9月PPI、核心PPI、零售销售 | | --- | --- | | | 11/26 21:30 美国11月22日当周首次申请失业救济人数 | | | 11/26 23:00 美国10月PCE、核心PCE | | | 11/27 9:30 中国10月规模以上工业企业利润 | | 重点关注 | 11/30 9:30 中国11月制造业、非制造业、综合PMI | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Events**: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a daily update on futures arbitrage data for various commodities on November 24, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from November 17 to 21, 2025. The basis remained at 32.6 yuan/ton during this period, and all spreads were 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided, along with price changes such as - 8.81, - 14.21, etc [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 17 to 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on November 21 was - 490 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 65 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 17 to 21, 2025 are shown. On November 21, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2330 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on November 21 was 173.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 42.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from November 17 to 21, 2025 are given. On November 21, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.89 [20]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on November 21 was 20 yuan/ton [31]. London Market - On November 21, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 1.06 [34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 21 was - 89 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of various agricultural products are given, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios and spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.88 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 21 was 71.22 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of CSI 300 was - 408 [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 20, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors [1] 1. Power Coal - **Base Price**: The base price of power coal from November 13 to 19, 2025, remained at 32.60 yuan/ton, and the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: The base prices and ratios of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different trends, with the base price of INE crude oil ranging from -21.45 to -0.36 yuan/ton, and the ratio from 0.1498 to 0.1520 [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) varied. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton, and that of PVC was 309 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol also changed from November 13 to 19, 2025. For instance, on November 19, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2305 yuan/ton [9] - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different values. For example, the base price of rubber on November 19 was - 490 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) were different. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 47 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was - 35.5 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil changed from November 13 to 19, 2025. For example, on November 19, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 [20] - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different values. For example, the base price of rebar on November 19 was 140.0 yuan/ton [21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Base Price**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed significant fluctuations. For example, the base price of copper on November 19 was 30 yuan/ton, and that of lead was - 240 yuan/ton [30] (2) London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: On November 19, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were - 33.13, - 32.88, 152.14, - 27.39, - 197.66, and 100.00 respectively, and the import profit and loss also varied [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different trends. For example, the base price of soybeans No. 1 on November 19 was - 125 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were different. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No. 1 was 28 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil was - 403 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., changed from November 18 to 19, 2025. For example, on November 19, 2025, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.76 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 13 to 19, 2025, showed different values. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on November 19 was 23.09 [49] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were different. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 160 [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the report. It mainly provides a series of futures arbitrage data for different commodities on various dates. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Power Coal - The basis of power coal from November 12 to November 18, 2025, remained at 32.60 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, the basis on November 12, 2025, was -22.60 yuan/ton, and the ratio data on different dates are also provided [7] - For INE crude oil, the basis and ratio data on different dates are presented [7] - For the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, the data on different dates are given [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on November 18 was -445 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 75 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on November 18 was 2266 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢,铁矿石,焦炭, and焦煤 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on November 18 was 160.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of螺纹钢,铁矿石,焦炭, and焦煤 for 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was 49 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of螺/矿,螺/焦炭,焦炭/焦煤, and螺 - 热卷 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the螺/矿 ratio on November 18 was 3.93 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on November 18 was 190 yuan/ton [29] (2) London Market - On November 18, 2025, for LME non - ferrous metals, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (35.33) [34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of豆一,豆二,豆粕,豆油, and玉米 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of豆一 on November 18 was -129 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of豆一 was 27 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of豆一/玉米,豆二/玉米,豆油/豆粕,豆粕 - 菜粕,豆油 - 棕榈油,菜油 - 豆油, and玉米 - 玉米淀粉 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the豆一/玉米 ratio on November 18 was 1.92 [40][41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of沪深300 on November 18 was 13.19 [52] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 for次月 - 当月 and次季 - 当季 are presented. For example, the次月 - 当月 spread of沪深300 was -170 [52]