投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 投资咨询号: 2025/7/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 | | | | | | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/24 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4810 | 4815 | 5.00 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4501 | 4530 | 29.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨44至6520。现货市场:涤纶 | | | | | | 短纤生产企业价格报盘稳定,午后期货价格上扬 | | PTA收盘价 | 4784 | 4850 | 66. 00 | 提振日内产销小幅回暖。受原料和期货上涨带动 | | MEG收盘价 | 4436 | 4485 | 49. 00 | 涤纶短纤午后市场商谈低端价格减少,商谈重心 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6650 | 6650 | 0. 00 | 小幅攀升,但成交有所转 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, commodity sentiment has improved, domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, port inventory has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being canceled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded, ethylene glycol prices have increased, and macro - sentiment has improved significantly. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have continuously postponed maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the downstream weaving profit has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil decreased from 504.3 yuan/barrel on July 22, 2025, to 503.7 yuan/barrel on July 23, 2025, a decrease of 0.60 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1129.2 yuan/ton to 1123.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.64 yuan/ton. PTA/SC decreased from 1.3081 to 1.3069, a decrease of 0.0012. CFR China PX decreased from 843 to 842, a decrease of 1. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 270 to 276, an increase of 6 [2]. - The PTA main contract futures price decreased from 4794 yuan/ton to 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 4775 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 212.1 yuan/ton to 240.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.3 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreased from 246.1 yuan/ton to 244.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7 yuan/ton. The main contract basis remained unchanged at 2 [2]. - The MEG main contract futures price decreased from 4447 yuan/ton to 4436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (81.77) yuan/ton to (82.96) yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/ton. MEG domestic price increased from 4490 yuan/ton to 4501 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton. The main contract basis decreased from 62 to 58, a decrease of 4 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.74%. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.59%. The MEG start - up rate increased from 57.35% to 57.48%, an increase of 0.13%. The polyester load remained unchanged at 87.01% [2]. Polyester Product Data - For polyester filament, POY150D/48F increased from 6530 to 6595, an increase of 65. POY cash flow increased from (307) to (275), an increase of 32. FDY150D/96F increased from 6750 to 6875, an increase of 125. FDY cash flow increased from (587) to (495), an increase of 92. DTY150D/48F increased from 7765 to 7785, an increase of 20. DTY cash flow decreased from (272) to (285), a decrease of 13. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 105% to 84%, a decrease of 21% [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6640 to 6650, an increase of 10. The staple fiber cash flow decreased from 153 to 130, a decrease of 23. The staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 48% to 55%, an increase of 7% [2]. - For polyester chips, semi - bright chips increased from 5835 to 5855, an increase of 20. The chip cash flow decreased from (102) to (115), a decrease of 13. The chip production and sales rate increased from 82% to 128%, an increase of 46% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of around 10 days [2].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has warmed up, domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, PTA port inventory has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has been reduced, and polyester replenishment has improved when the basis weakens. The basis of PTA has recovered from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2] Group 3 - Summary of Related Indicators Price and Basis - PTA spot price decreased from 4785 to 4775, a change of -10.00 [2] - MEG domestic price increased from 4470 to 4490, a change of 20.00 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 4780 to 4794, a change of 14.00 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4410 to 4447, a change of 37.00 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6650 to 6640, a change of -10.00 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 178 to 168, a change of -10.00 [2] - 8 - 9 spread decreased from 16 to 8, a change of -8.00 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6.00 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 367 to 385, a change of 17.85 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3800 to 3810, a change of 10.00 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1074 to 1088, a change of 14.19 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 271 to 258, a change of -13.15 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a change of -0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 53.00% to 55.00%, a change of 2.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a change of -0.01 [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a change of -0.06 [3]