Group 1 - The domestic futures market for methanol is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2521.00 CNY/ton and reaching a low of 2397.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 4.00% [1] - The methanol market is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and production costs, with high domestic production and operating rates, as well as increased international methanol operating rates and imports [1] - The overall fundamentals of methanol do not show significant contradictions, suggesting a potential for a range-bound market [1] Group 2 - The coal mining capacity verification policy is pushing coal prices up, which in turn supports methanol prices, although the market remains cautious due to potential overheating [2] - The upward movement in methanol prices is limited by the restart of production facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits [2] - There is a warning regarding potential discrepancies in expectations as the political bureau meeting approaches, advising caution for bullish positions and suggesting a wait-and-see approach for conservative investors [2]

商品情绪降温，价格高位回落 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/07/26 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 目前国内受反内卷政策影响黑色板块出现持续大幅上涨，甲醇更多受到情绪面影响，盘面跟随大幅上涨，但随着短期情绪 逐渐走向过热，7月25号夜盘国内商品出现大幅下跌，甲醇下跌超过3%，情绪开始降温，盘面面临进一步回调风险，目前 | | --- | --- | | | 甲醇自身矛盾不支持价格出现单边大幅上涨，波动率高位下需要注意价格风险。 | | 基本面 | 供应  国内开工83.98，环比+1.56%，国内开工逐步见底回升。 需求 | | |  到港17.38万吨，环比-25.66万吨，海外开工进一步回升。 | | |  港口烯烃开工79.28%，环比-0.95%，整体变化不大。 | | |  传统需求甲醛开工回落，二甲醚维稳，醋酸、氯化物、 ...