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商品期权周报:2025年第23周-20250608
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 14:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week, with daily average trading volume reaching 6.11 million lots and daily average open interest reaching 9.69 million lots, up 12% and 14% respectively from the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week, with 34 varieties closing higher. High - gain varieties include silver, tin, and crude oil, while high - loss varieties include caustic soda, urea, and industrial silicon [2][15]. - Most commodity implied volatilities declined this week, with 42 varieties seeing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, while low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore. Different trading strategies are recommended for different volatility levels [2][15]. - The trading volume PCR of some varieties is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment, while the trading volume PCR of others is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Similar situations exist for the open interest PCR, reflecting the accumulation of bullish or bearish sentiment in the market [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week. Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, industrial silicon, and glass. Varieties with significant trading volume growth are rapeseed oil and polysilicon, while those with significant declines are p - xylene and gold. High - open - interest varieties include soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth are tin, synthetic rubber, and nickel [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: 34 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed higher this week. High - gain varieties are silver (+7.69%), tin (+5.31%), and crude oil (+4.06%), while high - loss varieties are caustic soda (-4.93%), urea (-2.99%), and industrial silicon (-2.42%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities declined, with 42 varieties having a decline in implied volatility and 33 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, and low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of silver, copper, and styrene is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating high - level bearish sentiment, while that of styrene, caustic soda, rubber, gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [20]. - **Chemicals**: Key data of chemical varieties such as PTA, caustic soda, glass, and soda ash are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [25][34][42][48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metal varieties such as silver are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [55]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Key data of ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore and manganese silicon are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [61][69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Key data of non - ferrous metal varieties such as copper and alumina are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [77][85]. - **Agricultural Products**: Key data of agricultural product varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and cotton are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [94][102][116].
商品期权周报:2025年第20周-20250525
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 14:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 19 - May 23, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.91 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.29 million lots, showing a -11% and +10% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with most chemical and non - ferrous metals declining, and 37 varieties closing higher for the week. Many varieties' implied volatility continued to decline, and the trading and open - interest PCR of some varieties indicated strong short - term bullish or bearish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties included styrene (750,000 lots), alumina (740,000 lots), and silver (360,000 lots). Alumina had a significant trading volume increase of +165%, while polysilicon decreased by -69% [1][8]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (790,000 lots), soda ash (490,000 lots), and glass (480,000 lots). Alumina's open interest increased by +107% [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The varieties with high weekly gains were alumina (+9.65%), gold (+3.76%), and silver (+2.00%); those with high losses were synthetic rubber (-3.96%), LPG (-3.63%), and ferrosilicon (-3.37%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities continued to decline this week, with 39 varieties showing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include gold, and low - volatility varieties include oilseeds, rebar, and iron ore [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of some varieties such as p - xylene, LPG, and polypropylene is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of glass and rubber is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].
商品期权周报:商品隐波高位回落-20250511
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 11:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market recovered this week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - Most commodity option underlying assets declined this week. Many varieties' implied volatility dropped, presenting short - volatility opportunities. Different varieties show varying market sentiment based on volume PCR and open interest PCR [2][14]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - From May 5th to May 9th, 2025, the daily average trading volume was 5.5151 million lots, up 21.28% week - on - week, and the daily average open interest was 7.8 million lots, up 18.18% week - on - week [1][7]. - Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, soda ash, and glass. Notable volume - increasing varieties are polysilicon, caustic soda, and lithium carbonate, while p - xylene had a significant volume decline [1][7]. - Varieties with high daily average open interest are soybean meal, glass, and soda ash. Those with rapid open - interest growth are urea, polysilicon, and Shanghai lead [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Option Main Data Review - Underlying asset price changes: 32 varieties closed down. High - gain varieties are p - xylene, alumina, and PTA; high - loss varieties are lithium carbonate, glass, and polysilicon [2][14]. - Market volatility: Most commodity implied volatility declined. 47 varieties' implied volatility decreased week - on - week, and 31 varieties' current implied volatility is below the historical 50% quantile. High - implied - volatility varieties include polysilicon, gold, and soybean No.1 [2][14]. - Option market sentiment: Varieties like silver, rebar, and PVC have high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Synthetic rubber, styrene, and alumina have low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. PTA, polypropylene, cotton, and rapeseed meal have high open - interest PCR, suggesting accumulated bearish sentiment, while natural rubber has low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][14]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties such as trading, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanyi official website [19]. - It further divides into sub - sections for energy, chemicals, precious metals, ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products, each with corresponding data charts for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of specific varieties [20][25][55][63][80][97].