Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,382 lots, up 3,663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,384 lots, down 433 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,903 tons, down 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, up 22,475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.8 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 70 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons [3]. - The import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,041.35 points, up 21.34 points; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will start meeting with 11 candidates for the Fed Chairman around September 1st; India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [3]. - Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of cryptocurrencies [3]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner confirmed that the government is seeking to acquire a 10% stake in Intel; SoftBank Group invested $2 billion in Intel [3]. - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit in Hungary [3]. - The US and Europe will immediately start providing security guarantees for Ukraine; Trump has ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine but said air support is an option [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted due to price fluctuations, but the output still fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply is tight [3]. - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and although the demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support lead prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - face is favorable for the non - ferrous sector as there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over secondary lead with stable by - product revenues. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to fluctuating lead prices. The supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, with a tight supply of waste batteries and low confidence among smelters, leading to a tight overall supply. The sewage inspection in Anhui has affected local secondary lead production, increasing supply uncertainty. On the demand side, lead demand is mainly in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not yet seen a significant explosive growth but is in a slow recovery phase. The 8 - month consumption increment expectation is weak, but there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the current demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support the lead price. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract is 16,915 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the SHFE lead open interest is 96,155 lots, down 3,367 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead is - 3,792 lots, up 530 lots; the SHFE lead warehouse receipts are 58,683 tons, up 201 tons. The SHFE inventory is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 16,775 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 months spread is - 35.5 dollars/ton, down 4.21 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,154 yuan, up 201 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 75.65%, down 1.84%; the weekly output of primary lead is 33,800 tons, down 30 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,205.36 yuan/ton, up 1.79 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,000 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,875.1 points, up 60.88 points. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 11, Codelco received authorization from the Chilean Labor Inspection Office to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine, which had been suspended for over a week due to a collapse accident that killed six workers. Areas not affected by the July 31 accident can resume operations, while some areas are still on hold for further inspection. Kashkari said that it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year are reasonable. The subsequent market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, which is favorable for the non - ferrous sector [2]

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME copper prices increased by 0.30% to $9,761 per ton, driven by the consensus between China and the U.S. to continue the suspension of 24% tariffs [1] - The SHFE September copper contract remained stable at ¥78,940 per ton, reflecting positive sentiment in the commodity market due to the tariff suspension agreement [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of increased copper supply are suppressing price gains, with Codelco reporting a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production to 120,200 tons in June [3] - The approval for the resumption of operations in unaffected areas of the El Teniente copper mine alleviated supply concerns, impacting copper prices [3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME aluminum prices rose by 0.39% to $2,598 per ton, while nickel prices fell by 0.10% to $15,335 per ton [4] - In Shanghai, aluminum prices remained stable at ¥20,680 per ton, with nickel prices increasing by 0.79% to ¥122,590 per ton [4]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 4 to August 8, with coking coal and lithium carbonate leading gains, while fuel oil and crude oil saw declines [1] - Coking coal prices surged by 12.31%, breaking through the fluctuation range since June, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from steel mills [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Weekly coking coal production reached 5.2 million tons, a slight increase of 1.2% week-on-week but down 5% year-on-year due to ongoing production checks in Shanxi and Shaanxi [2] - Total coking coal inventory stood at 27.98 million tons, down 0.3% week-on-week, indicating a slight decrease in upstream stock [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 11.15% this week, influenced by supply concerns related to the Yichun lithium mine and ongoing market speculation [4][5] - The current market for lithium carbonate is characterized by a slight increase in supply and gradually recovering demand, with inventory levels exceeding 140,000 tons [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - July CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while PPI decreased by 0.2%, indicating a narrowing decline [8] - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, driven by price stability in household appliances and clothing [8] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - New regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market will take effect on October 9, 2025, aimed at enhancing market order and fairness [9][10] - The regulations require a reporting system for algorithmic trading, with a six-month transition period for compliance [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the lead market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and strategic recommendations for trading [1] Group 2 - On August 5, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -47.86 USD/ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,600 CNY/ton, a drop of 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous change [1] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw the main contract open at 16,750 CNY/ton and close at 16,775 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 25 CNY/ton [1] - Total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, while LME lead inventory stood at 272,975 tons, down by 1,100 tons [1] Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious bullish strategy, recommending to attempt buying on dips within the range of 16,000 - 16,300 CNY/ton for hedging purposes, while advising to pause on arbitrage strategies [1] - Risks mentioned include a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]

Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures mainly declined during the week from July 28 to August 1, with the black series experiencing a high-level correction after reaching new highs the previous week [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 0.03%, crude oil increased by 2.92%, while lithium carbonate fell by 14.41% [1] - The black series saw coking coal drop by 17.14%, coke down by 10.10%, and iron ore down by 2.43% [1] - In the basic metals sector, silver fell by 5.05%, lead by 1.20%, and nickel by 3.69% [1] - Agricultural products saw live pig prices decrease by 2.29%, soybean meal down by 0.36%, and palm oil down by 0.29% [1] - The shipping sector experienced a decline, with the European shipping index down by 6.78% [1] Gold Market Insights - Market risk aversion increased gold prices, with COMEX gold rising by 2.32% to $3416.0 per ounce, and London gold up by 0.77% to $3362.6850 per ounce [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value soaring by 45% to $132 billion, setting a new historical high [2] - Gold ETF investments were a key driver, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [2] - Gold supply increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with recycled gold supply up by 4%, although still relatively subdued in the high gold price environment [2] Future Gold Price Trends - Analysts suggest that gold prices may oscillate within a narrow range in the second half of the year due to a strong first half performance, with a 26% increase in USD gold prices [3] - The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, which could further support gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Diverging market views exist, with some analysts noting that strong US economic data may lead to a weakening of international gold prices [3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with Brent crude rising by 1.65% to $69.52 per barrel and WTI crude up by 1.36% to $67.26 per barrel [5] - The anticipated increase in refined oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere during Q3 is expected to boost oil demand [5] - However, the EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by approximately 7.7 million barrels, exceeding market expectations and causing a decline in international oil prices [5] - OPEC+ has increased production significantly, with a total increase of 1.8 million barrels per day over the past four months, which may continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [5] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 outlined a more positive assessment of internal and external economic conditions compared to the April meeting, indicating a potential "timely increase" in policy support for the second half of the year [7] - Key focuses include ensuring the implementation of previous policy arrangements, improving supply-demand relationships, and emphasizing the importance of capital markets [8] - The meeting highlighted the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on sustainable growth and risk management [9] Sector-Specific Analysis - In the lithium carbonate sector, supply disruptions are expected due to regulatory compliance issues, which may support prices in the short term [10] - The coking coal market is seeing a decrease in total inventory, indicating reduced supply pressure, while demand remains stable due to recovering coking profits [11] - The nickel market is experiencing volatility, with a potential shift back to fundamental factors as speculative trading cools down [11] - The agricultural sector, particularly live pigs, is expected to see increased supply in the latter half of the year, which may stabilize prices around production costs [11]

Group 1 - The night futures market opened with declines in coking coal, coke, and aluminum oxide by over 1% [1] - Other commodities such as rubber, white sugar, Shanghai zinc, and pulp also experienced declines [1] - Conversely, precious metals including Shanghai gold, Shanghai tin, Shanghai lead, and Shanghai silver saw increases [1]

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.10%, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.14% [1] - Shanghai aluminum experienced a slight decline of 0.02%, whereas Shanghai zinc rose by 0.26% [1] - Shanghai lead decreased by 0.21%, while Shanghai nickel and tin saw increases of 0.39% and 0.21% respectively [1] Group 2 - The night trading of alumina saw a significant increase of 3.39%, and aluminum alloy rose by 0.05% [2] - Stainless steel futures also experienced a rise of 0.66% during the night session [3]