国际铜夜盘收涨0.31%，沪铜收涨0.45%，沪铝收涨0.11%，沪锌收跌0.53%，沪铅收跌0.12%，沪镍收跌 0.51%，沪锡收涨5.65%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.40%，铝合金收涨0.31%。不锈钢夜盘收涨0.28%。 ...

每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.46%，沪铜收涨0.58%，沪铝收涨1.18%，沪锌收涨0.14%，沪铅收涨 0.27%，沪镍收涨0.11%，沪锡收涨5.52%。氧化铝夜盘收涨0.77%，铝合金收涨1.71%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 0.84%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.32%，沪铜收涨0.25%，沪铝收跌0.61%，沪锌收跌0.67%，沪铅收涨 0.12%，沪镍收涨1.65%，沪锡收涨2.02%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.39%，铝合金收跌0.43%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 1.03%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.33% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.26% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.08%, and Shanghai zinc fell by 0.04% [1] - Shanghai lead saw a slight increase of 0.06%, and Shanghai nickel surged by 2.30% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin experienced a rise of 0.89%, while alumina remained flat in the night session [1] - Aluminum alloy saw a minor decline of 0.02%, and stainless steel increased by 0.50% [1]

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.07% in the night session, while Shanghai copper dropped by 0.13% [1] - Shanghai aluminum remained flat, and Shanghai zinc increased by 0.12% [1] - Shanghai lead rose by 0.18%, and Shanghai nickel saw a significant increase of 1.88% [1] - Shanghai tin also experienced a rise of 1.06% [1] Group 2 - Alumina futures declined by 1.54%, and aluminum alloy prices decreased by 0.18% [1] - Stainless steel futures increased by 0.40% in the night session [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, despite a weakening US dollar making commodities more attractive to foreign holders [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,560 yuan per ton, up 0.05%, with an intraday increase of 0.98% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price fell by 0.65% to $13,091 per ton, maintaining above the $13,000 mark [1]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Major exchange registered warehouse inventories have increased, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory reaching 248,911 tons, marking a nine-week consecutive increase [4]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to a record 590,211 tons, indicating a significant rise in supply [5]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Analysts noted that demand from downstream buyers in China has cooled after pre-holiday restocking, contributing to the pressure on copper prices [4]. - The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer for China's import demand, has widened to $38 per ton from a previous $20, but remains low compared to over $50 at the end of December, reflecting weak demand [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices have declined by 0.62% to $13,095 per ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract rose by 0.09% to 101,600 yuan per ton [1] - The increase in inventories and weak demand continue to pressure copper prices, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10 [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, starting February 15, is expected to further impact demand as buyers complete pre-holiday restocking [1] Group 2 - Yangshan copper premium has increased from $20 per ton to $38 per ton, but remains low compared to over $50 per ton at the end of December, indicating weak demand [2] - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance, with tin rising by 3.42% and aluminum, zinc, and nickel declining [2] - LME's three-month tin prices remained stable, while aluminum, zinc, and nickel prices decreased by 0.72%, 0.34%, and 1% respectively, with lead prices increasing by 0.20% [2]

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 1.48%, while Shanghai copper increased by 1.49% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw an increase of 0.98%, and Shanghai zinc rose by 0.31% [1] - Shanghai lead experienced a slight decline of 0.12%, whereas Shanghai nickel rose by 0.84% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin recorded a significant increase of 1.69% [1] - Alumina futures fell by 1.84%, while aluminum alloy rose by 0.70% [1] - Stainless steel futures remained flat during the night session [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are experiencing a decline due to increased inventory levels and a strengthening US dollar, leading to a potential weekly drop in prices [1][2] - The most active March copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 100,100 yuan per ton, with an intraday low of 97,920 yuan [1] - LME three-month copper fell 1.03% to $12,769.50 per ton, with expectations of a drop exceeding 2% for the week, following a significant decline earlier in the day [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Sucden Financial noted that excessive long positions being closed could lead to increased price volatility, especially with reduced market liquidity as the Lunar New Year approaches [2] - The analysts also mentioned that the recent price correction brings metal prices closer to fair value, reducing downside risks and potentially stabilizing market confidence if momentum improves [2] Group 3 - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also saw declines, with tin down 5.86% to 357,000 yuan per ton, aluminum down 1.31% to 23,315 yuan, zinc down 1.01% to 24,450 yuan, lead down 0.45% to 16,510 yuan, and nickel down 2.61% to 131,840 yuan [3] - On the LME, three-month aluminum fell 0.17% to $3,022 per ton, zinc down 0.33% to $3,291 per ton, lead down 0.43% to $1,947 per ton, nickel down 1.03% to $16,895 per ton, and tin down 2.70% to $45,205 per ton [3]