Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price decreased due to the geopolitical situation and Fed's stance, with the key support level broken and the center of gravity shifting down. The alumina price is under pressure with new capacity coming online. The aluminum price is dragged down by the financial attribute due to the Middle - East situation. Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have their respective price trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost [1][3][8][14] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 94,420 yuan/ton, down 4.52%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 8,491 lots to 584,000 lots. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the spot market was 95,600 yuan/ton, down 3,360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina 2505 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 3,027 yuan/ton, and the weighted positions increased by 1,330 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 655 yuan to 24,180 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 39,600 lots [14] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 fell 3.11% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index positions increased by 3,983 lots to 209,700 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [23] - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead 2605 fell 1.59% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index positions increased by 2,146 lots to 135,100 lots. The spot market trading was light [27] - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2605 fell 3,990 to 131,550 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 16,909 to 330,296 lots. The spot premiums of different nickel types changed [32] - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2605 fell 200 to 13,855 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 9,613 to 182,402 lots. The spot prices of different resources were within certain ranges [38] - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 345,730 yuan/ton, down 24,490 yuan/ton or 6.61%, and the positions increased by 2,114 lots to 80,600 lots. The spot price continued to decline [41] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The main contract of carbonate lithium 2605 fell 9,700 to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 25,270 to 595,501 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased [55] 3.2 Important Information - **Inflation and Fed Policy**: The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, a one - year high. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, raised the inflation expectation, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year [2][15] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large - scale missile attack on oil and energy facilities related to the US in the region [15][19] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 19, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week - on - week to 523,100 tons; the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased to 266,100 tons; the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory reached 78,000 tons as of March 16 [2][24][29] - **Industry News**: Guinea plans to cut bauxite exports in early April; some new alumina production lines in China are expected to be put into trial production; GlobalData said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach nearly 6 terawatts by 2031 [9][48] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The geopolitical situation and Fed's stance led to a decrease in copper price. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the downstream pricing enthusiasm declined [3] - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite export policy needs to be monitored. The new domestic alumina capacity needs time to be fully released, and the subsequent pressure on alumina comes from the supply side [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Middle - East situation led to concerns about economic slowdown, and the financial attribute dragged down the aluminum price [16] - **Zinc**: The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to macro factors. The domestic refined zinc supply increased, but the demand recovery was insufficient. However, the expected reduction of overseas smelters and low LME inventory provided some support [25] - **Lead**: The increase in social inventory and inflow of imported lead suppressed the lead price, but the loss of secondary lead smelters provided some support [30] - **Nickel**: The weakening copper price and the tense Middle - East situation affected the nickel price. The nickel ore price was firm, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure [35] - **Stainless Steel**: The overseas manufacturing contraction led to some orders flowing back to China, but the concern about global economic recession still dominated the price trend [39] - **Tin**: The impact of Indonesia's potential tin export ban was limited. The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the weak downstream demand affected the tin price [43] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The negative growth of new - energy vehicle sales in March and the expected production of Jiangxi Xikeng Mine affected the supply - demand relationship, and the price center shifted down [57] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Copper**: Unilateral: The price broke the key support level and the center of gravity shifted down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5][6][7] - **Alumina**: Unilateral: New capacity is coming soon, and the alumina price is under pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Unilateral: Weak operation with the sector; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [17][18] - **Zinc**: Unilateral: The zinc price may be weak in the short term due to macro and fundamental factors; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [26] - **Lead**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [31] - **Nickel**: Unilateral: The price fluctuates weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36][37] - **Stainless Steel**: Unilateral: Wait for the macro situation to stabilize; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41] - **Tin**: Unilateral: The tin price remains weak; Options: Wait and see [44] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Unilateral: The oscillation range moves down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 17th, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 4%, alumina rose over 3%, and palladium rose over 2%. On the other hand, pulp dropped over 3%. The performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures also varied. The flow of funds in the futures market showed significant differences among contracts [4][5]. - Due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes, the prices and trends of different commodities like copper, lithium carbonate, crude oil, and others are affected differently. The prices of some commodities are expected to be strong and volatile, while others may face downward pressure or return to fundamentals [7][9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 17th, platinum, alumina, palladium, asphalt, iron ore, and Shanghai lead in the domestic futures main contracts rose, while pulp, caustic soda, live pigs, etc. fell. The performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures also differed. In terms of fund flow, crude oil 2605, pulp 2605, and alumina 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 2603 had capital outflows [4][5]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Different Commodities 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - In February 2026, China imported 231.0 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The electrolytic copper production in March increased. The copper product industry started to recover, but the terminal data was not optimistic. Affected by factors such as oil prices, inflation, and the US Federal Reserve meeting, the copper market remained weak [7]. 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rose. The export of lithium concentrates in Zimbabwe was suspended. After the Spring Festival, the upstream production increased, but there was a high risk of domestic lithium mine resumption. The inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The terminal demand showed signs of weakening, but the export increased. The price of lithium carbonate mainly fluctuated in a range, and future policies and resumption might affect the market [9]. 3.2.3. Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the overall oil product inventory decreased. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran affected Iran's oil production and exports. The Strait of Hormuz was almost shut down, leading to production cuts in Middle - Eastern countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the risk of crude oil price increase remained, and the market was highly volatile [10][11]. 3.2.4. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream industry's start - up rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. The inventory rate remained low. Affected by the supply of raw materials from the Middle East, the asphalt price was expected to be strong and volatile [12][14]. 3.2.5. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, and the enterprise start - up rate was at a low level. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of crude oil increased, and the supply of raw materials was tight. The domestic supply - demand situation improved, and the price was likely to rise [15]. 3.2.6. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate increased. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of crude oil increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The domestic supply - demand situation improved, and the price was likely to rise [16][17]. 3.2.7. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price rose, the PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate recovered. The export inquiry improved, but the social inventory was still high. Affected by environmental policies and the supply of raw materials, the price was likely to rise [18]. 3.2.8. Coking Coal - The coking coal price低开 and then rose, showing weakness. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the domestic mine output increased. The inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream replenished stocks. The price was affected by energy shortage expectations, but the market was complex [20]. 3.2.9. Urea - Urea prices fell nearly 2% on the day. The supply was abundant, and the downstream demand was from both agriculture and industry. The inventory did not show a large - scale accumulation, and the market was expected to stabilize after a correction [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is volatile and weak. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy for stock index futures, while the domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas ones. For bond futures, the short - term logic is inflation, and the curve is likely to remain steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [14][15]. - For steel and ore, short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. For iron ore, the short - straddle strategy should be maintained, and the 05 - 09 positive spread should take profits around 35 [16][18]. - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. Be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [20]. - For soda ash and glass, the current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and the macro - environment. Zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset, and short - positions in lead should take profits [24][26]. - Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Egg prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Apple prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are likely to remain at a low level [34][36][39][41][42][43][44]. - Crude oil prices are likely to rise due to supply shortages. Fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Rubber trading should be cautious, and pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Methanol prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Caustic soda prices are subject to supply - demand factors and should be traded according to the market rhythm. Asphalt prices follow oil prices. PVC prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. The polyester industry chain should be treated with a cautious and bullish attitude. LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [46][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][58][59]. - Paper pulp prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to inventory and price increases of finished products. Log prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Urea prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions [61][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13. The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17. The US may launch a 301 investigation against China [8]. - Apple will lower the commission rate in the Chinese App Store from 30% to 25% starting from March 15. The State Council passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8][9]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, with a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day [10][11]. - The US attacked Iran's oil export hub, and the global energy market is facing a supply crisis. The global chemical industry is experiencing "large - scale force majeure" [11][12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is weak, with technology stocks adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy due to geopolitical risks [14]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose. The short - term logic of the bond market is inflation, and the curve is steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [15]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Steel orders have improved, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points. The iron ore short - straddle strategy should be held [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon - The absolute price of double - silicon is still high. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, and be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by energy sentiment [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflationary pressure, and high inventory suppresses prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to inventory and the macro - environment [24]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and consumption is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish and volatile in the short term [26]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventories increase, and prices are weak. Short - positions in lead should take profits [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Pay attention to the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical impacts [34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Global sugar supply forecasts are divided, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Pay attention to feed prices and chicken inventory [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple prices are expected to be strong. The market is supported by low inventory and pre - holiday demand [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain supply [42]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The market will enter the off - season, and high inventory is a pressure [43]. 3.5.7 Hogs - The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Prices are likely to remain at a low level, and short positions in near - month contracts can be considered [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Supply shortages may lead to price increases. The market is facing a supply risk of over 10 million barrels per day [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Pay attention to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48]. 3.6.3 Polyolefin - Prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Pay attention to spot market sentiment [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Consider the impact of conflicts on tire exports and weather conditions [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Pay attention to raw material supply and energy prices [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Pay attention to spring maintenance and Iranian supply [53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Prices are subject to supply - demand factors. The long - position logic is supply reduction and export growth, while the short - position logic is weak domestic demand and high - priced futures [55]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Prices follow oil prices. Demand is in the off - season, and high prices suppress speculative demand [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - Prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. Pay attention to the reduction and expansion of ethylene production [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. 3.6.11 LPG - It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. Pay attention to supply risks from the Middle East and demand changes [59]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Paper Pulp - Prices have short - term support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [61]. 3.7.2 Logs - Prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory changes [61]. 3.7.3 Urea - Prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions. Pay attention to overseas disturbances and domestic policies [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with limited downstream demand boosting the price and high domestic inventory pressuring it. However, the firm price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lead price. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of recycled lead and the progress of recycled lead's inclusion in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months, but the domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production of recycled refined lead in February 2026 was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. After the Spring Festival, the maintenance of primary lead enterprises ended, and the current precious metal prices are still high, so the profits of primary lead smelting enterprises are still considerable, and the production has increased month - on - month. After the Lantern Festival, the losses of recycled lead enterprises expanded, causing the originally expected centralized resumption of production in early March to be postponed to after mid - March. It is expected that the effective production of recycled lead will be concentrated in the second half of the month. If the losses continue, the resumption of production in late March may fall short of expectations, and the tight supply of recycled lead may support the lead price periodically. Currently, after the lead price has fallen, the price of waste batteries is relatively resistant to decline, and recycled lead enterprises are deeply in losses. In addition, the inclusion of recycled lead as a deliverable (implemented on March 17) will increase the deliverable supply in the futures market, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and refined lead is in a state of import profit, so the overseas lead surplus pressure will flow into the domestic market [3] 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - The weekly operating rate of battery enterprises has rebounded to 71.68%. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has entered a comprehensive recovery state. Most production enterprises have basically resumed production, and as the number of workers on the job increases, the output has gradually increased, driving the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises to rise significantly. Currently, the terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is average. The inventory of dealers is relatively high, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories is digested slowly, with relatively large inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, only maintaining long - term order pick - up or replenishing inventory as needed, and there is no concentrated stockpiling market [4] 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week of March 6, the domestic lead spot basis was slightly at a discount, and the weekend lead spot basis was at a discount of 5 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 42.91 US dollars [4] 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the weekly LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons. The LME inventory fluctuated at a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,162 tons to 66,800 tons. As of March 10, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 73,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.12%, and it has increased for two consecutive periods, reaching an absolute high level in the past four years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, leading to increased inflation expectations and potential stagflation risks, which impact various asset classes [10][11]. - The domestic A - share market shows certain resilience under the influence of the US - Iran conflict, but short - term risk defense is recommended, and after the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks [17]. - The bond market may continue to decline in a volatile manner, with medium - term bonds being more favorable [18]. - Different commodity sectors have different trends. For example, energy prices are rising due to the conflict, while some industrial products and agricultural products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [20][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Information - The central bank will ensure sufficient market liquidity and gradually reduce the importance of quantitative intermediate targets [10]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and improve the market - stabilizing mechanism [10]. - The conflict in the Middle East has severely impacted the global energy market, with potential supply shortages and rising oil prices [11]. - The performance of AI - related companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2025 is remarkable, indicating the transformation of the AI industry [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to promote the development of multiple industries, with expected significant scale expansion [12]. 2. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Short - term risk defense is the main strategy. After the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may outperform large - cap stocks. The US - Iran conflict affects the global stock market, but the domestic A - share market shows resilience [17]. Bond Futures - Overseas inflation expectations are not the main factor affecting the bond market. The bond market may continue to decline in a volatile manner, and medium - term bonds are more favorable [18]. 3. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Steel prices are expected to oscillate. For iron ore, a short - to - medium - term short - straddle strategy is recommended, and long - term partial short positions can be established at high prices. An arbitrage strategy of going long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract of iron ore can be considered [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. The supply is recovering faster than the demand, but rising international energy prices may provide support [23]. Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended; for ferrosilicon, intraday short - selling is suggested while being cautious of unexpected price increases [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity; for glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the recovery of demand [25]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and macro - economic factors [26]. Zinc - An oscillating and bearish approach is recommended. Short positions can be taken with stop - profit and cyclic operations [28]. Lead - Previous short positions can be closed with profit, and new short positions can be established when the price rises [29]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a destocking state, but the destocking rate has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and the impact of the Iran - Israel situation on shipping should be monitored [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, existing long positions can be held, and short - straddle option opportunities can be considered; for polysilicon, a wait - and - see approach is recommended as it is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. 5. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the actual demand for resumption of production and the impact of external conflicts [34]. Sugar - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. There are differences in the global sugar supply forecast, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. Eggs - The short - term egg futures may be supported by expectations, but the supply pressure is still large, and the price may enter an oscillating pattern [38]. Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to show a strong trend, and the futures price may be strong [39]. Corn - Caution is needed when chasing high prices, and a 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [40]. Red Dates - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the sales area's sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [42]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [43]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US - Iran conflict continues, and the global crude oil supply is at risk of significant reduction, which may lead to further increases in oil prices [45]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is expected to be supported as long as the geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains [46]. Plastics - Polyolefin prices may be supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East, but prices may decline if the war situation eases [49]. Rubber - Caution is needed for single - side trading. Strategies such as narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR spreads can be considered, and profit - locking can be done appropriately [50]. Synthetic Rubber - A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but caution is needed regarding the rapid decline of energy prices [51]. Methanol - The short - term supply of methanol may be affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty [52]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% caustic soda is weak, while that of 50% caustic soda is strong. The price may rise significantly and then fall after the macro - sentiment fades [54]. Asphalt - Asphalt demand is in the off - season, and its price follows the oil price but is weaker [56]. PVC - PVC may oscillate strongly in the short term. The key factors are the sustainability and scope expansion of upstream ethylene production cuts [56]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment. In the long - term, pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG is at risk of supply shortage but is expected to remain strong, relatively weaker than crude oil [60]. 7. Others Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. Pay attention to port inventory and product price increases [62]. Logs - The price of logs in Rizhao is expected to oscillate upward. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory [62]. Urea - Urea futures are recommended to be traded with an oscillating strategy, as the futures market is more affected by sentiment and industrial policies [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. - In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will gradually raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to slowly rise in a volatile manner. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and inventories continue to increase slightly. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [19]. - In the long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of volatility and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [38][44]. - The supply of the float glass market remains stable, while the demand is weak. The industry inventory has risen significantly, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The spot market of soda ash is still full of wait - and - see sentiment, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern [40][41]. - The prices of rubber RU and NR are expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the strong trend of the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [55]. - The current oil price has already priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. It is recommended to adopt a mid - term layout strategy but wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail - risks [57]. - The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips in the medium - term [59]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and combined with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate [61]. - After the Saudi refinery closure and the attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of cooling. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of the valuation is narrowing. It is necessary to wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. - The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, and the demand is under pressure. The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor [65]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. In the short term, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and inventory reduction. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [68]. - As the expectation of PTA maintenance decreases, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The processing fee of PTA has fallen back, and there is room for the valuation to rise in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX and crude oil [70]. - The PX load remains high, and the overall load of downstream PTA is relatively low, resulting in a short - term inventory accumulation pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reduction cycle. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [72]. - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the spot price of polyethylene has risen. The downward space for PE valuation still exists, and the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the overall start - up rate is expected to bottom out and rebound [74]. - The cost of polypropylene is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - dominated downward trend to the production mismatch. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [76]. - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale of pigs is large, and the average trading weight is high, indicating limited inventory clearance. The short - term rebound of the spot price is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish attitude towards the near - term contract. The far - term contract is supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the upside space is also limited [79]. - The inventory of laying hens is large, but the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected, and the inventory has not significantly accumulated. However, the increase in stocking behaviors may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - term contract [81]. - Due to the market rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the soybean meal price has risen significantly. The export sales of US soybeans have improved, and the import cost has increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [84]. - Affected by the weekend geopolitical crisis, the short - term rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. The inventory of vegetable oils in China and India at the end of January has further decreased, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February has weakened the oil prices. It is advisable to wait for the oil prices to stabilize at a low level and then consider buying [86]. - The decline in India's sugar production in the first half of February and the increase in Thailand's production offset each other. The raw sugar price has fallen to a historical low and is continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been alleviated, and there may be a rebound. It is advisable to participate in long - positions in small amounts on dips [89]. - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased positions and prices significantly, speculating in advance on the peak season in March. It is necessary to focus on the downstream start - up situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for the Zhengzhou cotton price to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips [91]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Large - scale Fund has made its first investment in embodied intelligence, and Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of 2.5 billion yuan; the European natural gas price has risen by 42%, reaching the largest increase since March 2022, and Qatar Energy Company will stop the production of liquefied natural gas; MiniMax's total revenue in 2025 reached 79.038 million US dollars, with 73% of the revenue coming from the international market, and the gross profit margin increased to 25.4%, exceeding market expectations; Deutsche Telekom has cooperated with Starlink to expand the mobile network coverage [2]. - **Strategy View**: Amid the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 112.740, 108.530, 106.080, and 102.464 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01%. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; the final value of France's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.1, higher than the expected 49.9; the VIX index rose to 25.24 points on March 2, reaching the highest level since November last year. The central bank conducted 1.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net investment of 1.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the year - on - year CPI in January was lower than expected, while the PPI improved both year - on - year and month - on - month. The potential suppression of inflation on the bond market still exists. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, and the credit at the beginning of the year was weak. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.14% to 1,184.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 22,939.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.80% to 5,342.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.83% to 89.72 US dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.05%, and the US dollar index was 98.55. After the US - Israel joint military strike on Iran, the situation has continued to escalate, increasing the tail - risk in the Middle East. The demand for safe - haven assets has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The US ISM - PMI data in February 2026 was 52.4, higher than market expectations, and the overall was still in the expansion range. The price index has risen significantly, while the employment market is still weak [9]. - **Strategy View**: After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai gold main contract being 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver main contract being 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of gold and crude oil have risen, while copper prices have risen and then fallen. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.59% to 13,084 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,280 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 28,000 tons. The spot discount of copper in the East China region has narrowed, while that in the Guangdong region has widened. The domestic copper spot import loss is about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has slightly narrowed [12]. - **Strategy View**: Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, although risk appetite has been affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper has been strengthened, and there is a risk of supply interruption, so copper prices still have strong support. The increase in crude oil prices has reduced the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term. Domestically, with the arrival of the Two Sessions and the release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real estate market, there is support in terms of sentiment. The TC of the copper industry is running at a low level, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. As the downstream start - up rate further increases, the global copper inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper contract is 12,950 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased concerns about supply, driving up aluminum prices. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.38% to 3,185 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,195 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 29,000 tons to 693,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 295,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by more than 70,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 464,000 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a high level, but with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the inventory is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The US - Israel military action against Iran has increased the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and the electrolytic aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32 is still expected to be shut down for maintenance in March. Coupled with the high spot premium of aluminum in North America and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,140 - 3,240 US dollars/ton [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.60% to 24,874 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 189,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc price fell 24.5 US dollars to 3,355.5 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 226,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,370 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 70,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,400 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased by 31,600 tons to 211,900 tons on March 2 [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the conflict in Iran on zinc ore supply is relatively small, but market concerns about trade disruptions and energy price increases may briefly push up zinc prices from the sentiment side [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.28% to 16,893 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 112,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead price fell 8.5 US dollars to 1,978 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 171,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,900 tons to 67,100 tons on March 2 [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the lead ore inventory has increased slightly, the TC of lead concentrate has increased slightly, and the inventory of recycled raw materials has decreased marginally. The start - up rate of smelters has declined, and the start -

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.31% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.45% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw a slight increase of 0.11%, whereas Shanghai zinc and lead experienced declines of 0.53% and 0.12% respectively [1] - Shanghai nickel decreased by 0.51%, but Shanghai tin had a significant rise of 5.65% [1] Group 2 - Alumina futures fell by 0.40%, while aluminum alloy prices increased by 0.31% [1] - Stainless steel futures rose by 0.28% in the night session [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international copper and aluminum markets have shown positive performance, with various metals experiencing price increases in the night trading session. Group 1: Metal Price Movements - International copper rose by 0.46% in the night session [1] - Shanghai copper increased by 0.58% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw a rise of 1.18% [1] - Shanghai zinc experienced a slight increase of 0.14% [1] - Shanghai lead rose by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai nickel increased by 0.11% [1] - Shanghai tin had a significant rise of 5.52% [1] Group 2: Other Metal Products - Alumina rose by 0.77% in the night session [1] - Aluminum alloy increased by 1.71% [1] - Stainless steel saw a rise of 0.84% [1]

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.32%, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.25% [1] - Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.61%, and Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.67% [1] - Shanghai lead saw a slight increase of 0.12%, and Shanghai nickel rose by 1.65% [1] - Shanghai tin experienced a significant rise of 2.02% [1] - Alumina futures dropped by 0.39%, and aluminum alloy fell by 0.43% [1] - Stainless steel futures increased by 1.03% [1]