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燕京啤酒(000729)深度报告:改革蓄势 再谱新篇
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 00:31
Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong reform momentum, with significant potential for national expansion of the U8 product line, expected to exceed 1.5 million tons in the future, and substantial opportunities for high-priced single products above 10 yuan, which will enhance product structure and profitability [1]. Investment Highlights - Investment recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.57, 0.71, and 0.82 yuan respectively. Given the significant potential for net profit margin improvement and rapid earnings growth, a target price of 17.75 yuan is set for 2026, up from the previous target of 15.86 yuan [2]. - The beer industry is stabilizing, with clear advantages for regional leaders. The competitive landscape remains stable, and while the pace of price increases has temporarily slowed, it remains resilient. The recovery of dining scenarios and gradual consumer demand recovery are expected to drive profitability through structural upgrades, price increases, and efficiency optimization [2]. - Regional leaders like Yanjing Beer are achieving faster growth than the industry by increasing market share of major products, positively impacting their product structure and profitability, with relative advantages likely to continue [2]. Company Performance and Reforms - Yanjing Beer is undergoing comprehensive reforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with sales and revenue growth outpacing the industry. The net profit margin is projected to rise from 1.9% in 2021 to 7.2% in 2024, and ROE is expected to increase from 1.7% to 7.4%. Profitability has significantly improved since 2025 [3]. - The company is expected to further enhance net profit margins through improved management efficiency and mechanism optimization, driven by the growth of mid-to-high-end products like U8, supply chain and personnel efficiency improvements, and the rapid growth of the natto business contributing substantial profit increments [3]. U8 Product Expansion - The U8 product line continues to grow, with significant expansion potential in regions such as Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Shandong, and Northeast China, where total beer production is projected to reach 16.36 million tons in 2024, accounting for 46.5% of the national total. U8 is expected to exceed 1 million tons in sales by 2026 and could become a major product exceeding 1.5 million tons in the future [4]. - There is considerable room for the company to develop products priced above 10 yuan, as previous resource allocation in this price range has been limited. The success of U8 at the 8 yuan price point has established a solid profit foundation and product development experience, paving the way for high-end product creation and further enhancing product structure and profitability [4].