国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 05 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 2、【策略研究】：政策预期、流动性与基本面共振上修，A 股市场有望迎接春季"开门红"。 涨 价信号下，产业景气正在发轫与延续。行情看好的重点在科技、非银、消费。 3、【食品饮料研究】燕京啤酒：公司改革势能强劲，U8 全国化开拓空间仍大、我们预计未来有 望突破 150 万吨，10 元及以上价位单品的布局拓展空间较大，产品结构和盈利有望进一步提升。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 李林芷(分析师) 021-23185646 lilinzhi2@gtht.com S0880525040087 邵睿思(研究助理) 010-83939827 shaoruisi@gtht.com S0880125070011 应镓娴(分析师) 021-2318 ...

本报告导读： 以燕京代表的区域龙头依靠大单品份额提升实现快于行业的增长，且对自身产品结构和盈利形成正向拉 动，相对优势有望延续。 燕京啤酒改革势能强劲，盈利具备进一步提升空间。公司十四五期间通过全方位改革，销量和收入增速 快于行业，归母净利率从2021年的1.9%升至2024 年的7.2%，ROE 则从1.7%升至7.4%，25 年至今盈利 能力持续显著改善。我们认为公司管理效率提升和机制优化下，净利率将进一步提升：1）U8 等中高端 产品持续放量提升占比，带动吨价和盈利提升；2）改革持续驱动供应链和人员提效，叠加一次性的前 置费用逐步减少；3）纳豆业务快速成长贡献可观利润增量。 公司改革势能强劲，U8 全国化开拓空间仍大、我们预计未来有望突破150 万吨，10元及以上价位单品 的布局拓展空间较大，产品结构和盈利有望进一步提升。 投资要点： 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。维持公司 2025-2027年EPS预测分别为0.57、0.71、0.82 元，参考可比公司 平均估值，考虑燕京啤酒净利率提升空间较显著、业绩增速较快，给予2026 年25X PE，目标价17.75 元 （原目标价15.86 元）。 啤酒行业企 ...

爱建证券研报指出，燕京啤酒大单品战略成效显著，成长动能持续释放。公司主营啤酒研发、生产与销 售，形成以U8、V10、狮王精酿、漓泉1998为中高端产品代表，以鲜啤、清爽为腰部产品代表，以各区 域特色产品为基础产品的产品矩阵。公司凭借U8大单品的成功打造与全国化布局，近年来销量增速持 续跑赢行业，盈利能力加速修复。中高档啤酒方面，U8大单品延续强劲增长态势带动产品结构升级， 在现有基础上仍有提升空间，中高档啤酒收入有望持续增长。U8放量带动公司中高档产品销量占比由 2019年的54.6%提升至25H1的70.1%，产品结构优化成效显著。在百县工程基础上，公司2025年启动百 城工程，精选高线城市（高容量、高结构、高成长性），通过总分共建打造样板市场，持续挖掘强势市 场增长潜力，同时强化空白市场布局。25H1华北地区营收占比56.7%，优势市场深挖与弱势市场突破并 进，区域扩张节奏上修。公司坚定推进大单品战略，U8成长延续，增长态势强劲。首次覆盖，给予"买 入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 / 首次覆盖 2025 年 12 月 24 日 大单品战略成效显著，成长动能持续释放 ——燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）首次覆盖报告 投资要点： 食品饮料 | 买入（首次评级） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场数据： | | 2025 | 年 | 12 月 | 23 | 日 | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 12.04 | | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | | | | | 14.36/10.7 | | | 市净率 | | | | | 2.1 | | | 股息率（分红/股价） | | | | | 1.58 | | | 流通 A | 股市值（百万元） | | | | 30,216 | | | 报告原因： | | | | | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据： | | 2025 | 月 | | 日 | | | 年 | 09 | 30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The central bank is gradually implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with macro-prudential management continuously improving, as evidenced by the recent financial forum where the central bank governor emphasized the importance of debt market operations [6][8] - The central bank's net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds from October to December 2024 is aimed at alleviating supply-side pressures, indicating a mature timing for the resumption of bond trading [6][7] - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is being accelerated to prevent and resolve financial risks, enhancing the ability to manage banking asset quality concerns [8] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms while enhancing protections for small and medium investors, as highlighted in a recent speech by the chairman of the securities regulatory commission [11][12] - The multi-tiered capital market system is being reinforced, with specific reforms aimed at the growth board and the North Exchange to better serve emerging industries and technologies [13][14] - The introduction of a refinancing framework is expected to streamline the process for quality companies, allowing them to issue securities in a more flexible manner [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Huayang Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by strong performance in automotive electronics and precision die-casting [19][20] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 12.31% year-on-year growth, with a notable recovery in the excavator industry [23][24] - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 net profit increased by 81.47% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline, due to effective cost management and improved gross margins [27][28] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for Huayang Group suggest a clear growth path driven by automotive electronics and precision die-casting, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Hengli Hydraulic is positioned as a leader in the hydraulic components market, with expected net profits of 2.796 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in the excavator sector [25] - Hengli Petrochemical is expected to benefit from a new cycle in the refining industry, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its robust dividend policy and market position [29]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.433 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, with a net profit of 1.770 billion yuan, up 37.45% [1] - Q3 revenue was 4.875 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of 1.55%, while net profit for Q3 reached 668 million yuan, an increase of 26.00% [1] - The company experienced a slowdown in sales growth due to a ban on alcohol, impacting overall market demand [1] Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company sold 3.4952 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 1.39%, with Q3 beer sales at 1.1435 million kiloliters, growing only 0.10% [1] - The revenue per ton for Q1-Q3 was 3,843.27 yuan per kiloliter, up 3.14%, while Q3 revenue per ton was 4,263.23 yuan per kiloliter, an increase of 1.46% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 47.19%, up 2.10 percentage points, with Q3 gross margin at 50.15%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points [2] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company achieved a decrease in cost per ton by 2.74% to 2,125.05 yuan per kiloliter for Q3 2025 [2] - The overall expense ratio for Q1-Q3 was 22.25%, down 1.38 percentage points, with sales and management expense ratios also showing improvements [2] - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 13.18%, an increase of 3.15 percentage points, with Q3 net profit margin at 13.70%, up 0.33 percentage points [2] Investment Outlook - Despite short-term challenges from the alcohol ban, the company is focusing on retail channels, with the U8 product line showing healthy growth [3] - Long-term prospects remain positive due to potential expansion in regions and channels, with sustained growth expected for U8 [3] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.503 billion, 1.807 billion, and 2.116 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.64, and 0.75 yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Insights - The company reported a resilient performance in its U8 product line, with a focus on retail channel expansion despite short-term market challenges due to alcohol restrictions [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 134.33 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.70 billion yuan, up 37.45% [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for the coming years, with projections of 15.03 billion yuan in 2025, 18.07 billion yuan in 2026, and 21.16 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to growth rates of 42.41%, 20.22%, and 17.09% respectively [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 146.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.20% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.37 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.53 yuan in 2025, 0.64 yuan in 2026, and 0.75 yuan in 2027 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 31.32 in 2024 to 15.62 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][8] Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its gross margin to 47.19% for the first three quarters of 2025, up 2.10 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions and enhanced operational efficiency [7] - The report highlights a decrease in cost per ton to 2,125.05 yuan, down 2.74% year-on-year, contributing to the overall profitability [7] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.18%, an increase of 3.15 percentage points compared to the previous year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 13.433 billion yuan, an increase of 4.57% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.77 billion yuan, up 37.45% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.685 billion yuan, an increase of 33.59% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.55%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 668 million yuan, up 26% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 649 million yuan, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year [2][6] - The company continues to see strong growth in its U8 product line, with sales volume for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 3.4952 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. The average price per ton increased by 3.13% year-on-year during the same period [13] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 47.19% for Q1-Q3 2025, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 3.15 percentage points to 13.18% [13] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.56 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.77 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21X, 17X, and 15X [13] - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to an increase in profitability. The cost per ton decreased by 2.76% year-on-year in Q3 2025, contributing to a gross margin of 50.15% [13] - The company is also preparing to launch its second national product, which is expected to drive future growth [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanjing Beer is maintained as "Buy" based on the company's performance exceeding expectations and positive trends in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [5]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 13.433 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.77 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [5]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected net profits of 1.555 billion yuan, 1.885 billion yuan, and 2.170 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 47.3%, 21.3%, and 15.1% [5]. - The report highlights the company's focus on enhancing its product matrix with a core emphasis on the U8 brand, which positions it well within the premiumization trend in the beer industry [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for Yanjing Beer are as follows: 15.532 billion yuan for 2025, 16.191 billion yuan for 2026, and 16.780 billion yuan for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 4.2%, and 3.6% [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve, with forecasts indicating a gross margin of 42.7% for 2025, 43.6% for 2026, and 44.2% for 2027 [4]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 50.2% in Q3 2025, an increase of 2.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in costs and an increase in sales prices [5].