Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a bottoming out and potential for a rebound during the Spring Festival, with a focus on key stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the safety margin for liquor companies is derived more from brand strength, market share, and sales momentum rather than just dividend yields, which are expected to be adjusted downwards for the years 2025-2026 [1][16]. - Recent sales tracking shows that Moutai's sales and pricing are better than market expectations, with a slight increase in overall channel sales volume and stable pricing [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend planning, with companies like Yanghe planning to maintain dividends at no less than 100% of their net profit for 2025-2027 [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - Yanghe's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.12 billion and 2.52 billion yuan, a decline of 62.2%-68.3% year-on-year, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [2][11]. - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.58 billion to 1.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.0%-65.0%, with plans to launch a high-end product in 2026 [3][12]. - Yihai International anticipates low single-digit growth in H2 2025, driven by improved gross margins and a return of key personnel, which is expected to enhance business performance [4][13]. - IFBH is expected to face pressure in H2 2025, but with potential recovery in 2026 as supply issues are resolved [4][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-up approach to investing in liquor stocks, with a focus on key players and potential rebounds in sales, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [5][16]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: restaurant chains, dairy products, valuation-matched companies, and bottom-up recovery plays [5][17]. Industry Overview - The report notes that the food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of 4,560.2 billion yuan, with 142 listed companies [5]. - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of 0.6%, a 6-month performance of 4.4%, and a 12-month performance of 17.7% [7].

【银行】"一揽子"贷款财政贴息政策影响几何？——1 月 20 日贷款财政贴息四项政 策点评(买入) 1 月 20 日，财政部联合多部门发布"一揽子"贷款财政贴息政策及实施细则，本轮 贴息政策的新增和优化主要围绕加大贴息力度、拓宽支持领域、延长贴息期限、增加 经办机构、优化贴息流程等方面展开，预计 26 年贴息规模在 1000~2000 亿，较前一 次规模将有显著提升，稳投资、促消费政策成效可。一揽子政策有望形成银行板块"开 门红"行情催化剂，重点关注小微、零售特色标的。 2026 年 1 月 22 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 【宏观】美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散——解构美国系列第十七篇 1 月 30 日两党临时预算截止日期将近，但我们认为本轮"关门"风险明显低于 2025 年。一是两党已通过 6 个部门预算，剩余 6 个部门预算也初步达成共识，即使政府再 次停摆，影响也将小于 2025 年停摆时。二是特朗普施已施压药企降价，有效化解了 医保争议的急迫性，降低了政治博弈"硬着陆"可能。三是当前特朗普政府将更多精 力投向对外问题，内政或倾向于以稳为主，避免"两线作战"。 行业研究 总量研究 【房地产】202 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年业绩预告，2025 年公司预计实现归母净利润15.8-17.4 亿元,同比+50-65%，实现 扣非归母净利润14.6-15.6 亿元,同比+40-50%。 子公司土地收储增厚利润，叠加公司改革成效持续兑现，利润率持续提升。展望26 全年，我们认为公 司内部改革势能强劲，U8 增长势能仍有望延续，有望持续带动产品结构优化。啤酒业务外，布局纳 豆、饮料等多元化业务，看好后续公司利润率持续提升。我们选取预告上下限平均数看，2025 年实现 归母净利润16.6 亿元，同比+58%，实现扣非归母净利润15.1亿元，同比+45%.对应单25Q4 归母净利 润-1.1 亿元，同比减亏1.2 亿元，实现扣非归母净利润-1.8 亿元，同比减亏4458 万元。其中，2025 年非 经常性损益主要系公司确认子公司土地收储款，增加归母净利润约1.32 亿元，25Q4 子公司土地收储款 增加利润5764 万元。 盈利预测：我们预计公司25-27 年分别实现收入153.4/159.7/165.6 亿元，分别同比+4.6%/+4.1%/+3.7%， 分别实现归母净利润16.0/18.5/21.2亿元，分别同比+ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.25 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit for 2025 ranging from RMB 1.58 billion to RMB 1.74 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [6]. - The company anticipates a reduction in losses for Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by land reserve contributions and operational improvements [6]. - The U8 product line is expected to continue its rapid growth, supported by strategic market expansions and new product launches at a price point of RMB 10 [7][9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 14.67 billion in 2024, RMB 15.14 billion in 2025, RMB 15.48 billion in 2026, and RMB 15.84 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 3.20%, 3.24%, 2.25%, and 2.32% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.06 billion in 2024, RMB 1.68 billion in 2025, RMB 1.95 billion in 2026, and RMB 2.25 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 63.74%, 59.29%, 16.09%, and 15.12% respectively [5]. - The company’s EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.37 in 2024 to RMB 0.80 in 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 33.40 in 2024 to 15.69 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5]. - The target price of RMB 17.25 corresponds to a PE of 25x for 2026, reflecting a higher growth rate compared to peers [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and reducing costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins [8]. - The beverage business is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, particularly in core markets [7]. - The company is also benefiting from trends towards health-conscious products, particularly in its natto business [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the adjustment period for high-end liquor is expected to end, highlighting the long-term investment value in this sector. The price of mainstream liquor has decreased from approximately 2200 yuan around the Spring Festival in 2025 to about 1560 yuan currently, with a notable decline since June [4][30][32] - The beer industry is anticipated to benefit from a low base effect in 2026, with emerging retail channels and government consumption stimulus policies expected to drive recovery [5][42] - The dairy industry is currently in a transitional phase, with low milk prices expected to rebound as demand improves and supply stabilizes. The long-term growth potential remains strong due to ongoing consumption upgrades [5][60][63] - The condiment sector is projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in restaurant consumption, with both B2B and B2C channels expected to see improved sales as consumer spending recovers [5][79] Liquor Industry - High-end liquor is expected to stabilize after a period of adjustment, with long-term investment value becoming more apparent. The market share of premium liquor brands continues to rise, and the consumption upgrade trend remains intact despite short-term impacts [4][30][34] - The competition in the mid-range liquor segment has intensified, with brands experiencing varying levels of performance due to market pressures. The demand for mid-range products has been notably affected by weak business consumption [36][39] - Inventory management is crucial, with manufacturers actively controlling supply to maintain price stability. The introduction of information systems has improved inventory management capabilities [40][39] Beer Industry - The beer market is expected to recover due to a low base effect from 2025, with national leaders likely to benefit significantly. The rise of instant retail channels is also anticipated to drive growth in non-on-premise beer sales [42][43] - The industry is entering a mature phase, with a focus on premiumization and product structure upgrades. The market share of high-end products is increasing, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [47][50] - Cost stability is expected in 2026, with barley prices remaining low and contributing to profit margins. The overall cost structure is anticipated to support profitability in the beer sector [51][53] Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is currently experiencing a down cycle in milk prices, but a rebound is expected as demand improves and supply stabilizes. The long-term growth potential remains strong due to increasing consumer preferences for high-quality dairy products [60][63] - The population base in China supports the demand for dairy products, with significant growth potential in rural areas where consumption is currently lower compared to urban areas [66][70] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-quality growth, with leading companies focusing on improving profitability through better cost management and efficiency [60][77] Condiment Industry - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in restaurant consumption, with B2B channels likely to see significant improvements as consumer spending increases [79][84] - The industry has shown resilience, with a stable growth rate over the past five years. The market size for condiments has surpassed 650 billion yuan, driven by rising consumer demand and changing eating habits [83][84] - Cost advantages are anticipated in 2026, with raw material prices remaining low, which will help maintain stable growth in the condiment sector [79][80]

"国产软件领头羊"用友网络仍在亏损中。 1月13日晚间，用友网络发布公告称，预计2025年度为91.7亿元至92.7亿元，归属于母公司所有者的 净亏损为13亿元到13.9亿元；预计实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损为14.5亿元 到15.4亿元。 值得注意的是，这已是用友网络自2001年上市以来连续第三年亏损，三年累计亏损金额已突破40亿 元大关。 针对业绩表现，该公司将原因归结为 "收入端短期波动" 与 "成本端刚性增长" 的双重挤压：一方 面，受一季度收入下滑及订阅制转型的影响，全年营收增速不及预期；另一方面，为了向数字化、智能 化升级，公司加大了新一代产品的研发力度，导致无形资产摊销费用高达12.4亿元（同比增加2.4亿 元），直接推高了当期成本。 自2011年起，随着万物互联、云技术崛起的时代浪潮到来，传统的ERP必须向"云ERP"进化，用友 网络也开始向云端转型。2015年，用友推出云转型策略，公司名称从用友软件更改为用友网络。2016 年，用友正式启动了3.0战略，以软件产品形态转为"软件即服务"的SaaS形式，转型核心为云服务。 2020年，用友宣布进入3.0-Ⅱ战略阶段，并推出 ...

Macro Research - The recovery momentum in consumption is strong, but investment and production still require further policy support [2] - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" as policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals resonate positively [2] - The price signals indicate that industrial prosperity is beginning to emerge and continue [2] Strategy Research - The A-share market closed 2025 at 3968.84 points, with an annual increase of 18.41%, confirming the strategic judgment made by Guotai Junan [3] - The market is anticipated to stabilize and appreciate due to the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairman and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][24] - The decision-makers have emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a potential increase in policy support for growth [3][24] Food and Beverage Research - Yanjing Beer shows strong reform momentum, with significant potential for national expansion of its U8 product line, expected to exceed 1.5 million tons in the future [3][8] - The company is expected to enhance its product structure and profitability through the expansion of high-priced products above 10 yuan [8][9] - The beer industry is stabilizing, with leading companies like Yanjing benefiting from structural upgrades and improved profit margins [8][9] Industry Comparison - The report highlights a favorable outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors, driven by the industrialization of emerging markets and the AI trend [6][27] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from global chip technology breakthroughs and rising storage prices, with domestic infrastructure shortages accelerating the pace of domestic production [6][27] - Non-bank financials are poised to gain from increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, while cyclical stocks are seen as bottoming out and benefiting from domestic demand expansion [6][27]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong reform momentum, with significant potential for national expansion of the U8 product line, expected to exceed 1.5 million tons in the future, and substantial opportunities for high-priced single products above 10 yuan, which will enhance product structure and profitability [1]. Investment Highlights - Investment recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.57, 0.71, and 0.82 yuan respectively. Given the significant potential for net profit margin improvement and rapid earnings growth, a target price of 17.75 yuan is set for 2026, up from the previous target of 15.86 yuan [2]. - The beer industry is stabilizing, with clear advantages for regional leaders. The competitive landscape remains stable, and while the pace of price increases has temporarily slowed, it remains resilient. The recovery of dining scenarios and gradual consumer demand recovery are expected to drive profitability through structural upgrades, price increases, and efficiency optimization [2]. - Regional leaders like Yanjing Beer are achieving faster growth than the industry by increasing market share of major products, positively impacting their product structure and profitability, with relative advantages likely to continue [2]. Company Performance and Reforms - Yanjing Beer is undergoing comprehensive reforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with sales and revenue growth outpacing the industry. The net profit margin is projected to rise from 1.9% in 2021 to 7.2% in 2024, and ROE is expected to increase from 1.7% to 7.4%. Profitability has significantly improved since 2025 [3]. - The company is expected to further enhance net profit margins through improved management efficiency and mechanism optimization, driven by the growth of mid-to-high-end products like U8, supply chain and personnel efficiency improvements, and the rapid growth of the natto business contributing substantial profit increments [3]. U8 Product Expansion - The U8 product line continues to grow, with significant expansion potential in regions such as Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Shandong, and Northeast China, where total beer production is projected to reach 16.36 million tons in 2024, accounting for 46.5% of the national total. U8 is expected to exceed 1 million tons in sales by 2026 and could become a major product exceeding 1.5 million tons in the future [4]. - There is considerable room for the company to develop products priced above 10 yuan, as previous resource allocation in this price range has been limited. The success of U8 at the 8 yuan price point has established a solid profit foundation and product development experience, paving the way for high-end product creation and further enhancing product structure and profitability [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer has successfully implemented a big product strategy, leading to significant growth momentum and continuous release of growth potential [1] Product Strategy - The company focuses on beer research, production, and sales, forming a product matrix that includes high-end products like U8, V10, Lion King Craft, and Lijiang 1998, mid-range products like fresh beer and refreshing beer, and basic products with regional characteristics [1] - The success of the U8 big product has driven sales growth that consistently outpaces the industry, with profitability accelerating [1] Market Performance - The U8 product has shown strong growth, contributing to an upgrade in product structure, with the proportion of mid-to-high-end beer sales increasing from 54.6% in 2019 to 70.1% in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to launch a "Hundred Cities Project" in 2025, focusing on high-capacity, high-structure, and high-growth cities to build model markets and explore growth potential in strong markets while strengthening its presence in underdeveloped markets [1] Regional Expansion - In the first half of 2025, the North China region accounted for 56.7% of the company's revenue, indicating a strategy of deepening advantages in strong markets while making breakthroughs in weaker markets [1] - The company is committed to advancing its big product strategy, with U8's growth continuing to show strong momentum [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is effectively implementing a big product strategy, with sustained growth momentum. The revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 156.9 billion, 167.2 billion, and 177.0 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.0%, 6.6%, and 5.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 14.5 billion, 17.6 billion, and 20.3 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 36.9%, 22.0%, and 15.3% respectively [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 12.04 yuan - One-year high/low: 14.36/10.7 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 2.1 - Dividend yield: 1.58% - Market capitalization of circulating A shares: 30,216 million yuan [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is 14,213 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%. The net profit for the same year is 645 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 83.0% [5][19]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 37.6% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][19]. Product Strategy - The company has established a product matrix that includes high-end products like U8, V10, and regional specialties, which have shown strong sales growth. The U8 product line is expected to achieve a sales target of 90,000 tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.4% [3][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence through initiatives like the "Hundred Counties" and "Hundred Cities" projects, targeting high-capacity and high-growth cities [5][19]. Competitive Landscape - The beer industry is characterized by stable competition, with production levels stabilizing around 35 million kiloliters since 2021. The company has been outperforming the industry in terms of sales growth, driven by its successful U8 product strategy [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mid-to-high-end beer is projected to grow from 95.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 109.2 billion yuan in 2027, with gross margins improving from 52.0% to 55.0% [3][5]. - Revenue from regular beer is expected to grow modestly, with projections of 44.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 46.0 billion yuan in 2027, maintaining a stable gross margin of around 31.5% [3][5].