Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7]. Core Insights - The effects of new policies in Shanghai are becoming evident, leading to a recovery in second-hand housing transactions [1]. - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand housing transactions are gradually recovering, although new housing transactions have not yet seen a similar trend [4][5]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has shown a relative decline of 15% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the past week (March 7-13), Beijing reported an average of 580 second-hand housing transactions per day, down 3.7% year-on-year, while new housing transactions were 76 units, down 27.5% year-on-year [4]. - Shanghai saw an average of 982 second-hand housing transactions per day, up 8% year-on-year, while new housing transactions were 318 units, down 8% year-on-year [5]. - In Shenzhen, second-hand housing transactions averaged 154 units per day, down 25% year-on-year, and new housing transactions were 39 units, down 57% year-on-year [5]. National Trends - In 30 major cities, new housing transaction area increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the past week, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6% in March [6]. - The cumulative transaction area from January to March showed a year-on-year decline of 21.6% [6]. - Second-hand housing transactions in 14 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 24.7% in the past week, with a March year-on-year decline of 17% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The months of March and April are traditionally peak seasons for the real estate market, especially following the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven" policies, which have stimulated both second-hand and new housing transactions [7]. - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [7]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary agencies as the proportion of second-hand housing transactions continues to rise [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [3] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes in major cities [10][11] - Policy measures are being implemented to support the market, including tax reductions and adjustments to purchase restrictions, which are expected to stabilize market expectations and improve transaction volumes [17][27] - The new housing market is lagging behind the second-hand market, with a notable decline in new housing supply in key cities [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In January, major cities saw a year-on-year increase of over 20% in second-hand housing transactions, contrasting with a decline in new housing supply, which dropped by over 40% in key cities [5][11] - The transaction window for the real estate market has extended due to the timing of the Spring Festival, leading to improved sales figures [10] Policy Environment - Recent policy changes include a reduction in the value-added tax on homes sold within two years from 5% to 3%, and the continuation of tax refunds for home exchanges, aimed at lowering transaction costs [17] - On February 25, 2026, Shanghai adjusted its purchase restrictions, allowing non-resident families and single adults to buy homes with a reduced social security requirement, and increased the maximum housing fund loan limit from 1.6 million to 2.4 million [17] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will continue to focus on "city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, and optimize supply," with ongoing pressure on new construction and investment chains [27] - The report highlights the potential for a gradual stabilization of housing prices, driven by increased transaction volumes in the second-hand market and supportive policy measures [17][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with sufficient core area inventory and new value, such as Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Resources Land [27] - It also notes opportunities in intermediary agencies as the proportion of second-hand transactions increases, highlighting companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [27]

Core Insights - Guangzhou has announced the termination of three residential land plots within three days, reflecting a significant shift in the local real estate market [1][4] - The decision aligns with the central government's real estate regulation strategy aimed at controlling supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing offerings [6] Group 1: Termination of Land Plots - The three terminated plots include the Tianhe Financial City plot with a starting price of approximately 25.08 billion yuan, the Baiyun District plot at about 15.04 billion yuan, and the Panyu District plot at around 16.62 billion yuan, totaling approximately 56.74 billion yuan [1][2] - The Tianhe Financial City plot was initially set for auction on December 19, with a floor price of 4.2 million yuan per square meter, which is a decrease of 1.2 million yuan per square meter from its first listing in February 2025 [2] - The Baiyun District plot is positioned as a Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) project, located near the under-construction Guangzhou Metro Line 13, but still failed to attract bidders despite favorable conditions [2][3] Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The termination of these plots is part of a broader trend observed in multiple cities, including Xi'an, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Beijing, and Shenzhen, indicating a nationwide adjustment in land market policies [5] - The current real estate market in Guangzhou is experiencing a significant decline, with the total transaction amount for residential land plots in 2025 estimated at approximately 506.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 277.5 billion yuan or about 35.4% compared to 2024 [6] - The strategy of withdrawing land from the market is seen as a means to stabilize land prices, housing prices, and market expectations, preventing a scenario of devaluation and weakened market sentiment [6]