行业研究|房地产 证券研究报告/行业研究/行业深度 2026 年 02 月 26 日 房地产行业：上海调整限购，楼市 小阳春可期 ——房地产行业专题报告 研报摘要 强于大市（维持) 行业指数与大盘走势对比 证券分析师 相关研究： 请仔细阅读报告末页声明 1 月重点城市二手房成交整体改善。与 2025 年不同，2026 年春节在 2 月 中旬，1 月房地产市场交易周期延长，无春节假期扰动，成交窗口期增长， 1 月份多地二手房成交套数同比正增长。北上深三地 1 月二手房成交套数 同比涨幅超过 20%。 新房市场成交改善弱于二手房。1 月开发商整体推盘供给下降，重点 35 城商品住宅供应量大幅下降，35 城批准上市商品住宅 4.11 万套，同比下 降超 4 成。二手房具备的价格、交付优势，部分刚需和改善需求转向二 手房市场，分流新房需求。此外，2 月中旬春节，部分购房者节前观望， 购房意愿降温。 成交回暖叠加政策利好，70 大中城市二手房价环比降幅持续收窄。1 月， 个人出售购买不足 2 年的住房，增值税从 5%降至 3%，换房个税退税延 续，降低交易成本。同时，多地放松限购、优化贷款，叠加"收购存量 房用作保租房 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the implementation of a comprehensive consumption promotion plan during the Spring Festival, focusing on enhancing service supply and optimizing consumer experiences across various sectors [1][2][3] - The plan includes measures to increase transportation capacity in civil aviation and railways, promote special offers for tickets, and enhance the quality of services provided to consumers [1] - The initiative aims to address diverse consumer needs by creating special market areas for New Year goods and extending the operating hours of cultural venues during the holiday [1][2] Group 2 - The plan emphasizes the integration of digital, green, and smart consumption, as well as the promotion of inbound tourism, highlighting the importance of cultural traditions and family reunions in driving consumption growth [2][3] - It encourages online booking and offline experiences to balance the development of online and offline markets, while also facilitating payment options for international tourists [2] - The overall strategy aims to stabilize short-term consumption while laying the groundwork for a recovery in consumer spending by 2026, leveraging the long holiday period to enhance domestic demand and consumer confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau emphasizes the need to implement central government policies to stabilize and improve the real estate market by managing supply and demand effectively [1] Group 1: Market Development Strategy - In 2026, the focus will be on balancing current and long-term needs, as well as managing both incremental and existing housing stock [1] - The strategy includes "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" to enhance market expectations and promote stable development [1] Group 2: Controlling Increment - The bureau plans to rationally determine housing demand and scientifically arrange land supply while guiding financial resource allocation to achieve market equilibrium [1] Group 3: Reducing Inventory - Efforts will be made to accelerate the reduction of existing housing inventory, including the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing and urban village redevelopment [1] - Policies such as "selling old for new" will be supported to facilitate transactions in existing housing [1] Group 4: Optimizing Supply - There will be a systematic push for the construction of "good houses," with the establishment of a standard system to guide real estate developers in creating diverse housing options [1] - The initiative aims to create demonstration communities featuring "good houses" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market as indicated by the central economic work conference. The formation of a monetary easing environment through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to provide better macroeconomic support for the industry [2][4]. - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit, good city locations, and quality products, referred to as the "three good" real estate stocks. Companies such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group are highlighted as key investment opportunities [2][8]. - The cash flow situation of real estate companies remains a concern, with a significant year-on-year decline in funds received, particularly from personal mortgage loans and domestic loans [5][42]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - In December, real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 36%, marking the largest monthly drop of the year. The annual investment amount decreased by 17% compared to the previous year [3]. - New construction and completion areas showed a narrowing decline, with new starts down 19% year-on-year in December, a reduction of 8 percentage points from November [3]. Sales Performance - December saw a 16% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 24% drop in sales amount, with cumulative annual declines of 9% and 13%, respectively. The average sales price for the year fell by 4.3% [4]. - The price index for new homes in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year in December, while the second-hand housing price index fell by 6.1% [4]. Cash Flow Situation - In December, the funds received by real estate companies decreased by 27% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans down by 39%. Domestic loans saw a significant decline of 45% [5][42]. - The report emphasizes the need for improvement in cash flow management among real estate companies, as the current situation remains challenging [5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China continues to experience a downward adjustment, but signs of stabilization are emerging after four years of decline, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline rates for sales, new construction, and price indices [2][3]. Sales Performance - In 2025, new home sales reached 881 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, while residential sales were 733 million square meters, down 9.2%. This marks a significant improvement compared to the 12.9% decline in 2024 [2]. - The total sales amount for new homes was 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, with residential sales at 7.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.0% [2][3]. - The decline in sales amount is greater than the decline in sales area, indicating developers are adopting a "price reduction promotion" strategy, with the average price of new homes dropping by 4.1% [3]. Development Activity - New construction area for homes in 2025 was 588 million square meters, down 20.4% year-on-year, with residential new construction at approximately 430 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8% [3][4]. - The reduction in new construction reflects a proactive approach to "de-inventory" in response to the adjustments in sales [4]. Inventory and Supply - The growth of new home inventory has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6% in 2025, compared to an average annual growth of 13.4% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The reduction in inventory is attributed to both proactive de-inventory efforts by the industry and market self-adjustment, which helps stabilize market expectations [4]. Price Trends - The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 3.0% and 6.1% respectively in 2025, with declines significantly smaller than those in 2024 [4]. - The stabilization of prices is crucial for the housing market, influenced by the "control increment" policy and structural reforms in supply [4]. Investment Trends - Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% in 2025, reflecting a transition from rapid urbanization to a more stable phase of urban development [5]. - The decline in investment is seen as a natural progression, with potential for revitalizing existing stock to open new opportunities in the industry [5][6]. Stock Market Dynamics - Approximately 30% of existing homes are over 20 years old, indicating a significant demand for upgrades and renovations in the stock market [6]. - The increase in transactions of second-hand homes, particularly in mid-to-low price segments, reflects a shift in demand and supports a positive market cycle [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guanghuo Goes Global" Spring Action, launched on January 15, 2026, in Foshan, Guangdong, aims to stimulate consumer demand and enhance the market presence of high-quality Guangdong products through a series of promotional activities involving over 6,000 enterprises and major commercial platforms [6][8][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event features nearly 30 key activities, with participation from over 10 large commercial platforms and approximately 6,000 enterprises across various sectors including home appliances, mobile phones, clothing, food, and more [8]. - The home appliance promotion event on the same day gathered more than 1,300 local home appliance companies, showcasing quality products and conducting live-stream sales [10]. Group 2: Economic Context - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to boost domestic demand and optimize supply in Guangdong, a major manufacturing and consumption province, to support economic recovery and industrial upgrading [6][8]. Group 3: Promotional Strategies - The promotional campaign employs a multi-layered discount structure involving government subsidies, enterprise discounts, and platform support, effectively stimulating consumer spending [11]. - Consumers can benefit from various discounts, including government "national subsidies" and brand-specific promotions, with some companies offering up to 15% off through trade-in programs [14]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement - The event includes additional incentives such as gifts, service upgrades, and exclusive discounts for consumers who use specific codes during purchases, enhancing the overall shopping experience [15]. - Companies are also implementing ongoing promotional activities throughout the first quarter, ensuring sustained consumer engagement and value [15].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is improving, with more signs of stabilization expected in 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand - The supply side continues to control growth, with a significant month-on-month increase in transactions, while year-on-year figures continue to decline. The supply area for December was 66.74 million square meters, down 26% year-on-year. Transaction volume reached 270 million square meters, up 190% month-on-month, but down 7% year-on-year [4][10]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in December was 2.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month. The heat of land auctions remains concentrated in a few cities and specific sectors, with high premium land sales in cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Nanjing [5][22]. - The supply of land is expected to be further optimized in 2026, with a focus on controlling new land supply and promoting the construction of quality housing [14]. Group 2: Market Heat - The average premium rate for December was at a low of 2.1%, indicating a decline in market heat. However, some high-quality plots still achieved high premiums, such as those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with Nanjing setting a new city price record [22][30]. - The land auction failure rate was 8%, remaining at a near-low level. Specific cities like Chengdu and Guangzhou experienced land that failed to sell due to uncertain future sales prospects or insufficient bids [25]. Group 3: Key Plots - The highest total price for land transactions in December was for a plot in Beijing's Haidian District, sold for 8.456 billion yuan, with a premium of 0.4%. Other notable transactions included high-premium plots in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [31][32]. - The average floor price for land in Beijing's second ring was 81,000 yuan per square meter, indicating high demand in prime locations [34].

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies, including the new VAT policy and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's meeting, align with the central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market, aiming to enhance market stability and reshape competitive dynamics in the industry [1] Group 1: Policy Implications - The new VAT policy and related government meetings are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the real estate market as outlined in the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - The unblocking of transaction chains is expected to create momentum for market stability [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments include real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products" [1] - Companies that can maintain cash flow through operational capabilities during market adjustments are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from the recovery of the Hong Kong market [1] - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages are also recommended for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a policy approach of "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" in the real estate sector, which has been further detailed in the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The principle of "city-specific policies" is fundamental for stabilizing the market, recognizing the significant regional differences in real estate markets across cities and districts [1]. - Experts suggest that local governments should implement precise controls based on core data such as population trends, housing inventory, and second-hand housing listings, adhering to the "people-land-house-money" coordination principle [1][2]. - The shift towards a stock-dominated real estate market is seen as a necessary evolution rather than a temporary fluctuation, with the majority of demand now coming from improvement needs through a "buy-sell" replacement model [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Measures - The focus on "controlling increment" aims to limit new real estate land in cities with excess supply, promoting urban renewal and the revitalization of existing land [2]. - The "reducing inventory" initiative is not merely about clearing stock but involves a systematic approach that balances market stability, public welfare, and urban upgrades [2][3]. - The acquisition of existing residential properties for use as affordable housing can alleviate market pressure and broaden the supply channels for affordable housing, thus achieving dual objectives of "reducing inventory" and "supplying guarantees" [3]. Group 3: Long-term Development - The optimization of supply is crucial for long-term market stability, focusing on enhancing housing quality to meet diverse needs [3][4]. - The "five good" requirements—good standards, good design, good materials, good construction, and good maintenance—are emphasized to promote the construction of quality housing and improve living conditions [3]. - The integration of "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" forms a complete logical chain for supply-side reform in real estate, aiming for a dynamic balance in market supply and demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a policy of "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" in the real estate sector, with a focus on adapting strategies to local conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The approach of "controlling increment" is fundamental for stabilizing the market, as the real estate market exhibits significant regional characteristics and varying supply-demand dynamics across different areas [1]. - Experts suggest that local governments should implement precise controls based on core data such as population trends, housing inventory, and second-hand housing listings, adhering to the principle of "people-land-housing-money" coordination [1]. - The shift to a stock-dominated real estate market is seen as a necessary evolution rather than a temporary fluctuation, with the majority of demand now coming from improvement needs through a "buy-sell" replacement model [2]. Group 2: Inventory Reduction - The key to "reducing inventory" lies in achieving a basic balance between supply and demand, addressing the mismatch between excess stock and effective housing demand [2]. - Measures to control new real estate land supply in cities with excess inventory and to encourage the renovation of old housing are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations [2]. - The initiative to acquire existing residential properties for use as affordable housing aims to quickly alleviate market inventory and broaden the supply channels for affordable housing [3]. Group 3: Supply Optimization - The focus on "optimizing supply" is seen as a long-term strategy for market stability, emphasizing the need to enhance housing quality and meet diverse housing demands [3]. - Improving the precision and effectiveness of housing guarantees is essential, with a push towards high standards in design, materials, and construction to lower costs and promote the construction of quality housing [3]. - The integration of "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" forms a complete logical chain for the supply-side reform of the real estate sector, aiming for a dynamic balance in market supply and demand [4].