Group 1 - Multiple chemical sectors are entering a new round of expansion, with the adhesive tape base film industry expected to reach a peak production period in August and the n-butanol industry set to add 250,000 tons of capacity in the second half of the year [1] - The n-butanol industry is experiencing a decline in price due to accelerated new capacity coming online, with an expected total capacity exceeding 7 million tons by 2029 [2] - The adhesive tape base film industry is also entering a rapid expansion phase, with a projected capacity of 4.2597 million tons by July 2025, and nearly 20 new production lines planned for August [2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to drive technological upgrades and industry consolidation through the supply chain, impacting the long-term landscape [3] - Companies in the adhesive tape base film sector are reducing production loads to alleviate short-term supply pressures, while n-butanol companies are accelerating technological upgrades to enhance product value [3] - As policies are implemented, inefficient capacities are expected to exit the market, allowing companies with technological and supply chain advantages to dominate [3]

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated July 29, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, due to cost support, macro - policy push, but weak demand, the market is expected to oscillate today [4][6] - For PP, with cost support and macro - policy push, yet weak demand, it is also expected to show an oscillating trend today [7][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7370 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, considered neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), a bearish factor [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy push; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The current PP delivery spot price is 7150 (-50), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), a bearish factor [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, it is expected to oscillate today [7] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are cost support and macro - policy push; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+0), the 09 - contract price is 7335 (-121), the basis is 35, and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4) [4][9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (-50), the 09 - contract price is 7130 (-91), the basis is 20, and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [7][9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. showed different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. changed over time. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [16]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Price Index - The wholesale and retail price indices for agricultural products in Zibo have shown a decline this week, with notable fluctuations in vegetables and fruits [1][2][3] - Cabbage prices increased, with a wholesale average of 0.80 yuan per jin, up 0.10 yuan per jin (14.29%) from last week, due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [1] - Tomato prices decreased, with a wholesale average of 2.20 yuan per jin, down 0.10 yuan per jin (4.35%), attributed to increased supply from greenhouses [1] - Eggplant prices rose significantly, with a wholesale average of 1.20 yuan per jin, up 0.30 yuan per jin (33.33%), due to reduced supply from weather conditions [2] - Cabbage prices also increased, with a wholesale average of 0.70 yuan per jin, up 0.20 yuan per jin (40%), due to reduced inventory [2] - Pear prices decreased slightly, with a wholesale average of 3.23 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan per jin (0.62%), as the market remains stable [3] Group 2: Chemical Products Price Index - The Zibo chemical products price index is at 717.63, down 0.77 from the previous period, indicating a slight decline [4] - The basic chemical products price index increased slightly to 704.03, up 0.04, due to market confidence despite falling international oil prices [4] - The plastic products price index decreased to 747.10, down 2.51, influenced by weak demand and fluctuating raw material prices [4][5] - The rubber products price index increased to 548.32, up 8.70, driven by strong market conditions for synthetic rubber [5] Group 3: New Materials Price Index - The new materials price index is at 808.71, down 3.49 from the previous period, reflecting a downward trend [6] - The PC price index decreased to 766.04, down 3.78, due to stable raw material prices and limited demand [6] - The PET bottle chip price index increased to 907.91, up 11.00, supported by positive macroeconomic news despite cautious downstream demand [6] Group 4: Natural Gas Price Index - The average LNG market price in Zibo is 4562 yuan per ton, down 72 yuan per ton (1.55%) from last week, due to increased supply [7] - The liquid natural gas price index is expected to continue declining, while the pipeline natural gas index remains unchanged [7] Group 5: Cement Price Index - The average price for various types of cement in Zibo remains stable, with no significant changes reported [8]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 25 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has seen a rapid increase in prices for various industrial products, driven by policy initiatives and infrastructure projects, but there is a growing divergence in the outlook for cyclical stocks among private equity firms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [1]. - The recent strong performance of sectors such as infrastructure, non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials is seen as a clear indication of favorable fundamentals for bulk commodities [2]. - There is a significant difference in the current environment compared to the 2016 commodity boom, primarily due to a lack of short-term demand resonance and a different supply structure [1][2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Valuation - Current prices for some industrial raw materials are at historical highs, contrasting with the low prices seen in 2016, which may lead to a more differentiated impact from new policies [2]. - The cyclical sectors are experiencing a rebound partly due to supply-side reform expectations and the fact that overall valuations are at historical lows, with institutions holding fewer shares [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in industries with low capacity growth and strong global competitiveness, such as non-ferrous metals [4]. - There is a flexible investment strategy being adopted, combining short-term speculation with long-term positioning, particularly in sectors like steel and chemicals that are expected to benefit from large infrastructure projects [4][5]. - Some firms have begun to build positions in sectors like new energy and coal, which have seen significant price adjustments in recent years, reflecting a positive medium-term outlook for the market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides price support. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The recent strengthening of most commodities is due to the upcoming release of a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan or 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan or 3.24%), and UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan or 3.84%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices increased, such as in Shandong (up 20 yuan or 1.10% to 1,830 yuan/ton), Henan (up 30 yuan or 1.66% to 1,840 yuan/ton), and Hebei (up 30 yuan or 1.69% to 1,800 yuan/ton). Only the price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained stable at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or - 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained stable at 5,200 yuan/ton [1]. b. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan [1]. - The spread between 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [1]. c. Trading Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,790 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,812 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,807 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 195,945 lots [1].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the progress of phasing out outdated capacity and upgrading in the petrochemical industry [2] - The petrochemical index performed relatively well this week, closing at 2272.55 points, up 1.13% from last week [5] - The best performer within the petrochemical sector was oil extraction III, which rose by 2.83% [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Market - Energy prices have shown a slight decline; as of July 18, Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at $69.33 per barrel and €33.71 per MWh, down 1.4% and 5.3% respectively [8] - U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 9,346 thousand barrels to 1,255,837 thousand barrels, while total inventory (including strategic reserves) rose by 9,046 thousand barrels to 1,658,540 thousand barrels [12] 2. Polyester - The price of polyester filament has decreased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,550, 7,800, and 6,800 yuan per ton respectively, showing mixed changes in price spreads [17] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, with FDY, DTY, and POY inventory days at 25.6, 30.7, and 25.4 days [22] 3. Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) remained stable at 7,700 and 8,200 yuan per ton, with a total petrochemical inventory of 770,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from last week [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [1] Group 1: Industry Focus - The plan will focus on structural adjustments, optimizing supply, and eliminating outdated production capacity in key industries [1]

Core Insights - China is the world's largest exporter of household textiles, with a projected export value of $48.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - The export value of bedding products is expected to reach $15.4 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 6%, and cotton products accounting for 26% of this category [1] - The household textile industry is focusing on "optimizing supply and promoting consumption" to break away from traditional models and drive economic growth [1] Industry Overview - The household textile sector includes bedding, fabric products, kitchen and bathroom textiles, towels, carpets, and outdoor travel textiles [1] - The annual fiber consumption in the household textile industry is approximately 3.5 million tons, primarily using cotton fibers for bedding and towels [1] - High-quality, high-value cotton household textiles maintain strong international competitiveness in markets like the US and Europe, with significant growth potential in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Cotton Industry Insights - The cotton planting area in China has reached 4.4823 million acres this year, with good growth conditions reported [2] - The establishment of a cotton standard and certification system is aimed at promoting sustainable and environmentally friendly practices within the cotton industry [2] - The cotton industry is encouraged to adopt new technologies and management practices to enhance production quality and efficiency, focusing on green and sustainable development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the dual focus on risk prevention and market stabilization in the real estate sector, aiming to promote demand and optimize supply while ensuring housing delivery and quality [3][4][5]. Group 1: Risk Prevention and Market Stabilization - The report identifies risk prevention as the primary task for the real estate sector, highlighting the need to manage risks associated with key enterprises and ensure no systemic risks arise [4][5]. - Local governments are encouraged to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, with over 14 provinces already committing to "stop the decline and stabilize" the market [4][5]. - The report introduces the "Financial 16 Measures" to alleviate liquidity pressures on quality real estate companies, with a focus on ensuring housing delivery [4][5][11]. Group 2: Demand Side Measures - The report advocates for the reduction of restrictive measures tailored to local conditions, aiming to stimulate both rigid and improvement housing demand [6][8]. - Emphasis is placed on accelerating the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is expected to enhance purchasing power and improve mortgage expectations [6][8]. - Various cities, including Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, and Fujian, are already implementing urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to support market recovery [6][8]. Group 3: Supply Side Optimization - The report outlines a strategy to optimize new supply and revitalize existing inventory, focusing on controlling new land supply while enhancing urban renewal efforts [8][9]. - Local governments are granted greater autonomy in the acquisition of existing residential properties, with an emphasis on utilizing special bonds for land acquisition and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in construction, land acquisition, and the purchase of existing properties [8][9][24]. Group 4: New Development Model - A new development model for the real estate sector is proposed, focusing on high-quality housing that meets the diverse needs of the population [13][15]. - The model emphasizes the importance of quality in development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to a focus on sustainable and innovative practices [15][16]. - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach to land supply and housing demand, ensuring that housing quality aligns with the expectations of residents [13][15]. Group 5: Economic and Employment Goals - The government sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs, linking economic stability to housing consumption [19][20]. - Policies are designed to enhance residents' income and employment, which are crucial for boosting housing demand and consumer confidence [19][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a coordinated policy approach to ensure effective implementation and positive market expectations [19][20].