1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures shows that they are in a short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the rebound brought by support. This week, after the Treasury bond futures rebounded to a new high, they turned to adjustment. TL2606 and T2606 significantly declined after the rebound and may be in the adjustment process. Currently, they are near the support level, and it is necessary to focus on whether there will be a rebound during the adjustment [2]. - The data tracking of Treasury bond futures indicates that they declined overall this week, and the positive arbitrage strategy is waiting for an opportunity. As of the close on February 27, the closing prices of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.456, 106.005, 108.395, and 112.07 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.040, - 0.105, - 0.160, and - 0.94 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week, and the daily average trading volume of the 2606 contracts of each maturity increased across the board. The open interest of the 2606 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, and the main contract switched to 2606 this week. The CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts showed differentiation, and the current IRR is generally low, so the positive arbitrage strategy still needs to wait [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis 3.1.1 Previous Trend Review - TL2606 and T2606 closed with small negative lines with upper shadows this week. TL2606 was under pressure and turned down near the weekly MA20, and T2606 closed near the weekly MA5. At the beginning of this week, TL2606 and T2606 reached new highs and then declined, and are currently in a short - term adjustment [9]. 3.1.2 Future Market Outlook - This week, TL2606 and T2606 significantly declined after the rebound and may be in the short - term adjustment process. Currently, they are near the support level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a rebound during the adjustment. After a significant adjustment on Wednesday and Thursday, T2606 and TL2606 both reached the support level. T2606 pulled back to the intensive trading area, and TL2606 was close to the upward trend line of the rebound since January 8. Attention should be paid to the possible rebound at the support level [14]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - The Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on February 27, the closing prices of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.456, 106.005, 108.395, and 112.07 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.040, - 0.105, - 0.160, and - 0.94 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The daily average trading volume of the 2606 contracts of each maturity increased across the board, and the trading volume/open interest ratio of each maturity increased [15]. - As of February 27, the open interest of the 2606 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, and the main contract switched to 2606 this week [15]. - As of February 27, the CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts of each maturity showed differentiation, with TS and T rising and TF and TL falling. The CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were + 0.03, + 0.02, - 0.01, and + 0.06 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 1.39%, 1.43%, 1.52%, and 1.32% respectively, with TS and T falling and TF and TL rising. The current IRR is generally low, and the positive arbitrage strategy still needs to wait. The spread of the 2606 - 2609 contracts declined across the board, and the 2609 contract performed better [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effective use of government bond futures and derivative tools in 2026 to break through yield bottlenecks and amplify profit elasticity, suggesting strategies for both trending and volatile markets [2]. Group 1: Government Bond Futures Strategy - Utilizing government bond futures and derivatives can effectively enhance profit potential and manage risks in various market conditions [2]. - In a trending market, leveraging can be used to speculate on one-sided trends or for hedging, while in a volatile market, focus should be on curve strategies, cross-period, and arbitrage low-risk strategies [2]. - The combination of local government bonds and credit bonds for cross-product pairing is recommended [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Government Bond Futures - The article discusses the technical analysis of the current market adjustment, indicating a transition from a five-wave pattern to an M-top adjustment [3]. - It highlights leading indicators for a potential market bottom based on technical indicators [3]. - The performance of volume-price factors in response to sudden news volatility is analyzed [3]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior in Government Bond Futures - An analytical framework for understanding institutional behavior in government bond futures is presented [3]. - The relationship between government bond futures and equity markets is entering a new phase, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]. - The concentration of positions in TS contracts is discussed, providing insights into market sentiment [3]. Group 4: Hedging and Arbitrage Strategies - A series of hedging strategies is outlined, particularly in the context of tightening liquidity conditions, advising against premature market entry [3]. - Key points for hedging credit bonds during the current market adjustment are reviewed [3]. - The article explores the implications of inverted cross-period price differences in government bond futures and the factors behind their correction [3]. - It also discusses the "executable" basis trading in government bond futures, highlighting three core elements [3]. - The presence of a "Spring Festival effect" in government bond futures is noted, with observations on basis narrowing and curve changes [3].

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the 10-year Treasury bond futures may be approaching, and investors should actively respond to the adjustment. T2512 may be in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th and is currently in a short-term rebound. The 5th wave may see another decline, but considering it might be at the end of the decline since May, it could be a good opportunity to participate when the futures reach last Thursday's low or the spot bond yield reaches Thursday's high [2]. - Treasury bond futures fell across the board this week. Trading activity declined overall, and the CTD net basis and IRR of the 2512 contracts showed differentiation. The current IRR is still relatively low, and the value of the cash-and-carry strategy is not high, so investors should wait for a better opportunity [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Previous Trend Review - T2512 continued to decline at the beginning of the week and rebounded significantly on Thursday. It is currently in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th. The Treasury bond futures fell first and then rebounded this week, with a negative weekly line, but the decline slowed down significantly. T and TL rebounded significantly on Thursday afternoon and may be in the 4th wave of the decline since September 4th [8]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - T2512 may still have a 5th wave of decline after the 4th wave of rebound ends. Investors can participate at low levels and make long-term layouts. The subsequent trend may form a slanting triangle [9]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures fell across the board this week. As of September 26th, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures were 102.342, 105.540, 107.680, and 114.19 yuan respectively, down 0.022, 0.135, 0.155, and 0.61 yuan from the previous week [14]. - Trading activity declined overall. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of various maturities decreased to varying degrees compared with last week. The trading volume/holding volume ratio decreased for all maturities [14]. - As of September 26th, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, except for the 10-year contract, which decreased [14]. - The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of various maturities showed differentiation. The net basis of 2-year and 10-year contracts increased, while that of 5-year and 30-year contracts decreased. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures was +0.03, +0.04, +0.07, and +0.07 yuan respectively [18]. - From the perspective of IRR, the IRR of the 2512 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures was 1.41%, 1.34%, 1.22%, and 1.29% respectively. The IRR of 2-year and 10-year contracts declined, while that of 5-year and 30-year contracts increased. Overall, the value of the cash-and-carry strategy is still not high, and investors should wait for a better opportunity [18]. - The spread between the 2512-2603 contracts showed differentiation. The spreads of 2-year and 30-year contracts increased, while those of 5-year and 10-year contracts showed no significant change [18].