Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the inventory turning point has emerged since mid-November, combined with rising expectations for interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions, leading to a forecast that LME copper prices may accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Forecast - The inventory turning point will support the acceleration of copper prices towards $12,000 per ton by year-end [1] - Current high inventory levels are primarily influenced by COMEX hoarding, while LME and domestic inventories are not excessively high [1] - The expected decline in domestic inventory consumption days to below the five-year average (<10 days) will further support price increases during the year-end period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The combination of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to significantly widen the supply gap by 60% to 450,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Uncertainty in tariff policies and the rapid development of AI are driving continued U.S. copper hoarding, with a projected increase in copper demand from infrastructure and energy sectors [2] - Domestic production cuts are anticipated to significantly reduce overall production growth next year, despite an increase in recycled copper supply [3] Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - The forecasted price of $12,000 per ton is seen as both a safety net for long-term supply and a potential new upward elastic point [4] - The increase in exploration costs and investment intensity for new projects supports the upward price target of $12,000 per ton [4] - Historical trends in global apparent inventory changes suggest a strong potential for price increases in the coming year, similar to past market behaviors [4]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀、拜俊飞、涂耀廷 11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/ 吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有望拉阔60%，预计 12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 库存拐点将助力年内铜价加速迈向12000美元。 针对近期市场关于"高铜价和高库存"背离的讨论，我们认为目前库存读数偏高更多受COMEX囤货影 响，LME和国内库存难言高企。考虑到持续溢价状态下的COMEX库存回流难度较高、LME库存主要为 中俄货源，当前市场上有限的有效库存愈显脆弱，特别是在全球经济预期向上、经贸风险增加的大环境 下。我们预计Q4国内供需均环比走弱，但供给的下滑幅度更大，并将推动年底国内库存消费天数下滑 至近五年均值以下（<10天）。每年年底去库至来年春节假期后的1-2个月，期间的铜价上涨具备充分的 历史数据验证。随着11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期升温和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价 有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。 美铜囤货延续叠加国内减产落地，明年供给缺口料将大幅拉阔。 1 ...