1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term prices of soybean - related futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, with far - month contracts being weaker. The short - term price of palm oil futures has turned to weakly oscillating. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [5] - **Core Logic**: Last night, the price of US soybean futures rebounded from a low level due to improved export demand. Argentina's reduction of export tariffs on soybeans and their products may enhance its export competitiveness and squeeze the market share of US soybeans. Despite the USDA report keeping the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels, there are still concerns about South American supply pressure. The domestic market shows conflicting signals. Spot prices have stopped falling, but the expectation of accelerated customs clearance for imported soybeans has intensified the expectation of loose long - term supply. Near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline, while the cost support for far - month contracts is significantly weakened. [5][6] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [7] - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of November soared 13% month - on - month to 2.84 million tons, far exceeding market expectations and reaching a six - and - a - half - year high, mainly due to a cliff - like 28.1% decline in exports to 1.213 million tons. Domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated to 719,000 tons due to increased imports and weakening demand. Overall demand is lower than expected, with the growth rate of catering consumption slowing down and the procurement volume of small - package oils down 15% year - on - year. The narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread to 500 yuan/ton has suppressed the blending demand for palm oil. The domestic palm oil market is currently in a stage dominated by "weak reality", and the process of destocking high inventory determines the price movement center. The sentiment in the oil market has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy trends and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [7]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal is attributed to multiple factors, including favorable weather conditions in the U.S. affecting soybean growth, increased domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion of rapeseed meal [8]. Group 1: External Market Influences - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures have fallen for four consecutive days, with the benchmark contract down approximately 1.85% due to improved weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, which are beneficial for crop growth [3]. - Analysts indicate that the weather forecast has alleviated previous concerns about high temperatures and dry conditions affecting soybean growth, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [3]. - The expectation of abundant soybean supply from South America further supports the global soybean supply outlook, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports are increasing, with port inventories reported at 5.887 million tons as of June 23, 2025, down from 5.906 million tons on June 16, indicating a slight decrease but still high supply expectations [4]. - The supply pressure on soybean meal is primarily due to the high operating rates of oil mills and increased crushing volumes, which are expected to continue affecting the market negatively [4][5]. - Despite good demand from the livestock sector, the oversupply situation in the short term is unlikely to change, leading to continued pressure on soybean meal prices [5]. Group 3: Rapeseed Meal Market Conditions - The depletion of rapeseed meal inventories is slow, with downstream users perceiving rapeseed meal as lacking cost-effectiveness [6]. - The approval of imports from Kazakhstan is expected to alleviate some supply concerns for rapeseed meal, but it may also exert downward pressure on prices [6]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs between China and Canada are progressing slowly, which may impact the rapeseed meal market [6]. Group 4: Oil and Fat Market Influences - CBOT soybean oil futures have also declined, influenced by improved weather conditions and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies [7]. - Changes in Brazil's energy policy, which will increase the blending ratios of ethanol and biodiesel, are expected to boost domestic consumption of corn and soybean oil [7]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the oilseed market is experiencing a shift, which may have a knock-on effect on meal prices [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The outlook for soybean and rapeseed meal prices remains bearish due to a combination of international market conditions, domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion [8]. - Market participants are advised to monitor key factors such as U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, weather conditions in soybean-producing regions, and developments in China-Canada trade relations [8].