1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the good rate of US soybeans is relatively good, and the phased weather risk is limited. The upward driving force of CBOT soybeans is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain an operating range of 1000 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the expected arrival and crushing of imported soybeans remain at a high level, the supply of soybean meal continues to recover, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. The basis of soybean meal spot is expected to be weak. From the cost side, the bottom space of CBOT soybeans is limited, and the import cost supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - In the short - term, affected by the decline in market sentiment and fundamental pressure, the futures market is expected to oscillate and correct. In the medium - to long - term, as the Sino - US relationship is undetermined, there are still concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and coupled with the seasonal recovery of downstream demand, the soybean meal futures market is expected to have an opportunity to strengthen. [3] 2.2. Rapeseed Meal - The downside space is limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. [3] - Abroad, the global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, and the phased international rapeseed price is supported. In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center of rapeseed meal. Domestically, the near - month inventory is still relatively sufficient, and the far - month supply is expected to gradually tighten. The downstream aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to increase, but the supply of soybeans arriving in the next two months is loose, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitute consumption of rapeseed meal. The demand boost is expected to be limited. [3] - Overall, due to limited policy and fundamental support, the price of rapeseed meal is expected to adjust weakly following soybean meal. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Data - DCE soybean meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 3059.00 this week, down 19 from last week, a decrease of 0.62%; the 05 contract closed at 2759.00, up 15 from last week, an increase of 0.55%; the 09 contract closed at 3021.00, down 35 from last week, a decrease of 1.15%. [12] - CZCE rapeseed meal futures: The 01 contract closed at 2405.00 this week, up 11 from last week, an increase of 0.46%; the 05 contract closed at 2373.00, up 21 from last week, an increase of 0.89%; the 09 contract closed at 2675.00, down 47 from last week, a decrease of 1.73%. [12] 3.2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The excellent - good rate of US soybean production areas decreased slightly, and CBOT soybeans mainly oscillated. The US has reached trade agreements with Indonesia and Japan recently, and the market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations at the end of July. [16][17] - As of July 20, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. As of the same week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 20%. [17] - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.20 US dollars per bushel, a week - on - week decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.91%. [18] - As of July 22, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. [17] - As of July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 39.97 tons. [18] 3.3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The short - term Brazilian soybean premium continued to be strong, and the procurement for shipments after October was limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US trade policy changes. [29] - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 70%. In Argentina, the soybean export tariff was restored in July, and farmers' sales enthusiasm declined. [30] - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.11 million tons, and soybean meal exports were 2.4 million tons. [30] 3.4. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybeans was 286,869, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT soybean meal was 179,629. [55][57] 3.5. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - Canada raised the output of old crops, and the output of new crops decreased slightly. The EU's yield per unit area is expected to be good. [59] - In the July USDA report, the global rapeseed output in the 2024/25 season was slightly increased by 165,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 2.31 million tons year - on - year to 9.09 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 10.39%. [60] - As of July 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 151.12% week - on - week to 202,400 tons. As of the same date, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons. [61] 3.6. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The recent arrival and crushing of domestic soybeans remain at a relatively high level, the supply pattern of soybean meal continues to be loose, and the spot basis is expected to run weakly. [71] - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6544 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons, an increase of 10.35%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 889,000 tons, an increase of 1.83%. [73] - As of July 18, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 15.72%. [91] - As of July 18, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons, a decrease of 2.32%; the soybean meal inventory was 998,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons, an increase of 12.66%. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. [103] - As of the week of July 23, the national soybean meal trading volume was 728,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,300 tons; the total提货 volume was 936,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons. [106]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of uncertain Sino-US trade relations, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. - The key factors to watch include the weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Viewpoints - **US Soybeans**: The growth of US soybeans is currently good based on the excellent - good rate. There is a potential drought risk at the end of July, and the weather in August, the critical growth period, needs close attention. The market is also concerned about whether countries can reach agreements with the US, especially the Sino - US agreement, which is crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - **South America**: It is currently the peak export season for Brazilian soybeans, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded [3]. - **Domestic**: In the next two months, the arrival of imported soybeans will continue to increase, the inventory of soybean meal will rise, the pressure on oil mills due to full storage will increase, and the spot basis of soybean meal will be weak [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for soybean meal 2509 be around 2850. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated with a slightly upward trend due to the expectation of a Sino - US agreement. The July USDA report was neutral to bearish as it lowered the export forecast for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and raised domestic crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [13]. - **Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is fluctuating widely and is currently at a historically low level, so it is recommended to wait and see. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal is fluctuating weakly, and it is also recommended to wait and see [17][20]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [21]. Supply - Side - **US Soybean Sales**: As of July 10, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 271,850 tons [30]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.46 per bushel, with a 1.23% increase from the previous week and an 8.21% decrease compared to the same period last year [36]. - **Chinese Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase compared to June 2024. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand - Side - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig - raising profits, chicken - raising profits, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [54][63]. Inventory - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a 7.76% increase from the previous week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year [71]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous week [76].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal is attributed to multiple factors, including favorable weather conditions in the U.S. affecting soybean growth, increased domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion of rapeseed meal [8]. Group 1: External Market Influences - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures have fallen for four consecutive days, with the benchmark contract down approximately 1.85% due to improved weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, which are beneficial for crop growth [3]. - Analysts indicate that the weather forecast has alleviated previous concerns about high temperatures and dry conditions affecting soybean growth, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [3]. - The expectation of abundant soybean supply from South America further supports the global soybean supply outlook, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports are increasing, with port inventories reported at 5.887 million tons as of June 23, 2025, down from 5.906 million tons on June 16, indicating a slight decrease but still high supply expectations [4]. - The supply pressure on soybean meal is primarily due to the high operating rates of oil mills and increased crushing volumes, which are expected to continue affecting the market negatively [4][5]. - Despite good demand from the livestock sector, the oversupply situation in the short term is unlikely to change, leading to continued pressure on soybean meal prices [5]. Group 3: Rapeseed Meal Market Conditions - The depletion of rapeseed meal inventories is slow, with downstream users perceiving rapeseed meal as lacking cost-effectiveness [6]. - The approval of imports from Kazakhstan is expected to alleviate some supply concerns for rapeseed meal, but it may also exert downward pressure on prices [6]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs between China and Canada are progressing slowly, which may impact the rapeseed meal market [6]. Group 4: Oil and Fat Market Influences - CBOT soybean oil futures have also declined, influenced by improved weather conditions and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies [7]. - Changes in Brazil's energy policy, which will increase the blending ratios of ethanol and biodiesel, are expected to boost domestic consumption of corn and soybean oil [7]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the oilseed market is experiencing a shift, which may have a knock-on effect on meal prices [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The outlook for soybean and rapeseed meal prices remains bearish due to a combination of international market conditions, domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion [8]. - Market participants are advised to monitor key factors such as U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, weather conditions in soybean-producing regions, and developments in China-Canada trade relations [8].

华联期货饲料周报 7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况 豆粕短期或震荡偏强 20250622 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 ◆ 单边：建议豆粕2509支撑位参考2850。期权方面，建议可继续持有豆粕虚值看涨期权。 ◆ 套利：暂观望。 ◆ 展望：关注几个点，首先就是美豆产区天气情况；第二看进口大豆到港的情况；第三看国内豆粕的需求情况； 第四看中加和中美贸易关系。总体来看，预计豆菜粕短期震荡偏强为主。 产业链结构 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 ◆ 总的来说，在中美贸易政策不确定性以及美豆主产区或有干旱预期的情况下，预计豆粕短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 美豆方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 南美方面，目前处于巴西豆出口旺 ...

Report Summary - **Investment Rating**: Not provided in the report - **Core Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybeans is rising, and the spot price of soybean meal has stabilized. The price of DCE soybean meal and CBOT US soybeans has increased, while the price of DCE live pigs has slightly changed. The supply and demand situation of soybean meal and live pigs is complex, and the market outlook needs to be further observed [1][2][17] Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.53% to 3047 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose 0.04% to 13600 yuan/ton [2] - CBOT US soybeans main contract rose 0.19% to 1058 cents/bushel [2] Main Producing Area Weather - In the early part of this week, there will be more precipitation in the US Midwest, hindering crop planting in the south. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows more showers and temperature fluctuations [4] Macro and Industry News - Abiove maintains Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast at 169.7 million tons, and keeps forecasts for exports, soybean meal production, and exports unchanged [5] - On June 11, the import cost of US soybeans rose by 18 yuan to 4567 yuan, Brazilian soybeans by 9 yuan to 3748 yuan, and Argentine soybeans by 3 yuan to 3581 yuan [5] - On June 10, the national major oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased by 6.07 million tons to 9.86 million tons, with a decrease in both spot and far - month basis trading volume. The oil mills' operating rate rose by 1.49% to 65.03% [5] - As of June 8, the EU's 2024/25 cumulative soybean meal imports reached 18.2 million tons, much higher than last year's 14.5 million tons, indicating strong feed demand [5] - As of June 8, the EU's 2024/25 soybean imports were 13.3 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 6.76 million tons, both higher than last year [6] - Brazil exported 2.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.17 million tons of soybean oil in May. The cumulative exports of soybean meal and soybean oil this year are 9.65 million tons and 0.66 million tons respectively [6] - As of the week ending June 6, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 33.83 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 120.80 yuan/head [6] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 0.1%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.5% [7] Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybeans may move towards the upper limit of the range in the short term. The cost of domestic soybean meal is rising, and the market sentiment is bullish. The M2509 contract has resistance around 3050 yuan/ton, and short - term long positions should be reduced on rallies [17] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. However, the futures market has already priced in some pessimistic expectations. Observe the interaction between spot and futures prices and the possibility of accelerated spot price decline due to concentrated supply [18]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 08 日 豆粕：关注天气与贸易磋商，盘面重心上移 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（06.02-06.06），美豆期价先跌后涨，期价下跌因为美豆产区天气良好、中美贸易局势紧张。 期价上涨因为中美元首通电话并同意进一步磋商、市场对美国与中国贸易关系持乐观态度。此外，越南签 署谅解备忘录，将购买价值 20 亿美元美国农产品，包括玉米、小麦和豆粕，也提供支撑。周内没有美豆 大额出口销售订单。从周 K 线角度，6 月 6 日当周，美豆主力 07 合约周涨幅 1.51%，美豆粕主力 07 合约 周跌幅 0.10%。 上周（06.03-06.06），国内豆粕期价先跌后涨，豆一期价小幅反弹。豆粕方面，期价下跌主要因为 菜粕下跌影响（中加贸易摩擦缓和预期）；期价上涨则因为美豆和巴西升贴水上涨的成本带动作用。豆一 方面，现货价格稳中偏强，盘面小幅反弹主要受到豆二、豆粕偏强反弹的带动效应。从周 K 线角度，6 月 6 日当周，豆粕主力 m2509 合约周涨幅 1.42%，豆一主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.