每日市场观察 2025 年 8 月 25 日 【今日关注】 8 月 15 日阳包阴后，形成新的一轮上攻。截至 8 月 22 日盘面周阳创近 十年新高，从承接力度来看，并没有明显的衰退的迹象，周线时间运 行周期并没有结束。板块方面，相对强势。光头中阳说明强势，但是 偏离度增加也在积累风险。从行为上看，资金本周的规律性很强，量 能合理还有新高的机会。形态方面，本轮上攻的形态完整，均线持续 发散，但是时间运行不足，后市相对高位运行还需要一定的时间，需 要关注下月初的时间节点。 市场的行业轮动明显，属于有序的调整。前期轮动的半导体，教育和 计算机行业本周又出现在了涨幅榜，行情没有结束，可以轻仓参与。 长期来看，围绕国家政策扶持的相关产业还是主要投资方向，投资者 可借助短期的调整，寻找更合适的投资机会。 前期涨幅较大的化药，电机，船舶等已经出现了明显的滞涨，低位板 块补涨不明显，短期可以关注涨幅不大的传统采掘和酿酒板块。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：8月22日，上证净流入765.67亿元，深证净流入604.72 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为半导体、证券、软 件开发，主力资金流出排名前三的板块为城商行、医疗 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode, and the discount depth improved. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant, and sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment leading the way, while the banking sector declined significantly. There was a certain market rotation, and in the long run, industries supported by national policies will maintain an upward - trending oscillation [3]. - In July, external demand remained resilient beyond expectations, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth in July dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined in July due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that Sino - US economic and trade relations will remain in a phased stable state, and exports in the second half of the year are expected to maintain strong resilience [4][5]. - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a continuous upward trend. The basis of the futures - spot of the main contracts of stock index futures was 13.52 for IH, 7.05 for IF, - 37.57 for IC, and - 31.3 for IM. The A - share market continued to break through and reach a new high, with small - cap growth styles relatively dominant. Only the banking sector closed down, and there was a certain market rotation [3]. Macroeconomic Situation - In July, external demand remained resilient, but domestic demand - related indicators declined. Extreme weather and investment decline dragged down industrial production, and the growth rate of the service production index also slightly declined. Investment growth dropped significantly, especially in manufacturing and real estate development. Social retail growth declined due to the gap in subsidy funds and the overdraft of subsequent consumption by the "618 Shopping Festival". It is expected that exports in the second half of the year will maintain strong resilience [4][5]. Market Outlook - Next week, the stock index will continue to rise with oscillations in an environment of high trading volume and rapid sector rotation. To break through the integer mark and the previous bull - market high of 3731, both the weight and technology sectors need to work together [5].