Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall supply of coking coal is becoming more abundant with the resumption of mines after the military parade - related restrictions, active customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the arrival of overseas coal. The market is pessimistic about the future, with rumors of a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a decrease in coking enterprises' willingness to stockpile coking coal and a decline in spot prices [2]. - Although there is pressure to cut prices in the short term, coking enterprises have high enthusiasm to resume production after the lifting of restrictions, and the supply - demand gap for coke is narrowing. The high inventory of steel products needs time to be digested, and the weak reality will limit the rebound of coal - coke prices [2]. - In the long - term, "anti - involution" is the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market's expectation has improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Inventory transfer before the National Day may improve the supply - demand structure of coal - coke, so coking coal is not recommended as a short - position variety in the black market [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply side**: The supply of coking coal is increasing, with mines resuming production, high - level coal shipments, and strong import supply. Coking enterprises are cautious about replenishing coking coal due to the expected price cut of coke, resulting in poor sales and price loosening of coking coal [2][4]. - **Demand side**: The social inventory of five major steel products is accumulating against the season, and the immediate profit of steel products is deteriorating. The second - round price cut for coke has officially started. The total supply of steel products remains high, and high inventory needs time to be digested [2][4]. - **Future outlook**: There are still profits in most steel products except for rebar in the blast furnace process, and blast furnace plants are reluctant to cut production. After the military parade, some electric - arc furnace plants are resuming production, while others are reducing or stopping production due to losses. The downstream replenishment before the National Day, the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline should be monitored [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. The oscillation range of JM2601 is 1060 - 1260, and that of J2601 is 1510 - 1750 [18]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Purchase cumulative options for JM2601 with an observation period of 30 days and a knock - in and knock - out range of (1075, 1275); short the coking profit on the futures market at an entry range of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55); conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal at an entry point of (- 50, - 40) [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The price range of coking coal is 1060 - 1260, and that of coke is 1510 - 1750 [19]. - **Risk management strategies**: For inventory hedging, short the J2601 contract of coke; for procurement management, long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [20][22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Supply and inventory data**: The production of coking coal and coke is generally increasing, while the inventory of coking coal is decreasing, and the inventory of coke is increasing [22]. - **Price data**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally declined, and the import profits of some coal types have changed [23]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are policies indicating more active macro - policies and efforts to promote economic growth [26]. - **Negative information**: Steel mills have cut the price of coke, and the total inventory of steel products has increased, with high social inventory pressure [26][27]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's August social retail sales year - on - year and industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year on September 15th. Also, pay attention to the resumption progress of hot metal, the production - cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces, the verification of peak - season demand, the inventory - accumulation speed of finished products, and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [27]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The double - coke futures market is oscillating, with the 20 - day moving average forming pressure. The trading volume is shrinking, but the open interest of the main coking coal contract remains around 700,000 lots, indicating a large divergence between bulls and bears. The short - term lacks a clear directional driver [27]. - **Capital movement**: The net short - position of key coking coal seats first increased and then decreased, and there was a reduction in long - positions for coke, suggesting that the main capital is cautiously bearish but not overly pessimistic about the double - coke market [28]. - **Month - spread structure**: The coal - coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure, indicating high near - term pressure and support for far - month prices from the "anti - involution" expectation. There is no significant change in the month - spread this week [33]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of coking coal is mainly oscillating, and the basis of coke has narrowed due to the implementation of the spot price cut. There is no definite spot - futures positive - spread opportunity in the short term [39]. - **Spread structure**: The coking profit on the futures market continues to fluctuate at a low level. The strategy of shorting the coking profit on the futures market at high prices is maintained [42]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking - The first - round price cut for coke has been fully implemented, the cost of coal for coking has slightly decreased, and the immediate coking profit has declined from a high level. The blast - furnace profit has slightly improved, but rebar in the blast - furnace process has serious losses, and and and electric - furnace, and the electric - arc furnace is in a serious loss situation [44]. - The second - round price cut for coke started on September 12th and is expected to be implemented next week, and the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink [44]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered since June, and the customs - clearance enthusiasm at ports has significantly increased, with the import of Mongolian coal expected to accelerate. Tracking the theoretical import profit of overseas coal can predict the coking coal import volume in the next month, and it is inferred that there will be some pressure on the arrival of coking coal [48][51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The production of coking coal is expected to increase, with an estimated weekly average output of 9.77 million tons next week and 9.8 million tons in the week of September 20th. The import volume of coking coal is also expected to rise, with a net import of about 9.85 million tons in August and a weekly average net import of about 2.2 - 2.23 million tons in September [67]. - The production of coke is expected to recover rapidly, with a weekly output of 7.95 million tons next week and 7.98 million tons in the week of September 20th [67]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - The daily average hot - metal output is expected to be 2.4 million tons next week, basically the same as this week [73]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Coking coal**: After the lifting of restrictions, domestic mines are expected to resume production quickly. Coking coal maintains a tight supply - demand balance, with an immediate balance of 2.3803 million tons of hot - metal [75]. - **Coke**: The immediate coking profit is good, and coking enterprises have strong enthusiasm to resume production. The supply - demand gap is narrowing rapidly. The second - round price cut has been initiated, and the spot price of coke is still under pressure in the short term, but downstream replenishment before the National Day provides some support, making the third - round price cut more difficult [75].