【机构观点】 太平洋证券指出，近年来，我国国防预算增幅长期维持在7%左右，国防支出占GDP的比重不到1.5%， 低于世界主要军事大国的平均水平。我国国防支出仍有较大增长空间，未来或长期高于GDP增速2个百 分点左右。随着现代战争形态向信息化、智能化加速演进，未来我国国防支出结构将向新域新质方向倾 斜，而且军贸出口有望打开更大市场空间，行业或将进入内需外贸双轮驱动的快速发展阶段。 【更多产品】 截至2025年12月10日 09:52，航空航天ETF天弘(159241)盘中换手2.76%，成交1405.13万元。跟踪的国证 航天航空行业指数(CN5082)上涨0.80%，成分股国科军工(688543)上涨6.32%，盟升电子(688311)上涨 6.01%，航宇科技(688239)上涨5.16%，三角防务(300775)上涨4.46%，航新科技(300424)上涨3.57%。 截至12月9日，航空航天ETF天弘(159241)近半年规模增长3.47亿元，实现显著增长。 【产品亮点】 航空航天ETF天弘(159241)提供了高效把握核心军工空天机遇的工具，其跟踪国证航天指数，军工属性 极强，申万一级军工行业占比97 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that increasing defense spending and its impact on metal demand are gaining more attention as the world becomes more multipolar, with NATO committing to allocate 5% of GDP for defense [1] - Defense metal demand is expected to grow structurally, driven by NATO's upgraded spending targets, with NATO countries (excluding the US) projected to spend $507 billion on core defense in 2024, potentially increasing by an additional $371 billion if they reach the 3.5% GDP target [2] - Germany's defense budget is set to rise from €62.4 billion in 2024 to €154 billion in 2029, with 40% allocated for equipment procurement, which will significantly boost metal demand [2] Group 2 - The reconstruction of Ukraine is identified as a "second battlefield" for metal demand, with direct damages estimated at $170 billion and total reconstruction costs ranging from $543 billion to $1.23 trillion [4] - Using two methods to estimate metal demand, it is projected that if reconstruction takes 10 years, annual copper demand could increase by 200,000 tons (0.65% of global share), aluminum by 750,000 tons (1.1%), and steel by 1.76 million tons (1%) [6] - If reconstruction extends to 14 years with a $1 trillion cap, copper demand could reach 1.8 million tons (6.8% annual market), aluminum 720,000 tons (1%), and steel 1.6 million tons (1.8%), which could tighten an already constrained market given the global copper production growth rate of only 2% [6] Group 3 - The combination of defense modernization and post-war reconstruction is expected to drive up metal demand, with steepening demand curves for copper, aluminum, and steel, while strategic metals like rare earths, gallium, and germanium may become bottlenecks [7] - Factors such as spending efficiency, technological advancements (lightweight, intelligent, unmanned systems), and geopolitical dynamics will ultimately determine the intensity of metal consumption [7]

Core Viewpoint - The statement by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, highlights that the fivefold increase in defense spending reflects that security has become the top priority for both citizens and governments [1] Group 1 - The increase in defense spending is a significant indicator of changing priorities in Europe, emphasizing the importance of security in current times [1]