【机构观点】 太平洋证券指出，近年来，我国国防预算增幅长期维持在7%左右，国防支出占GDP的比重不到1.5%， 低于世界主要军事大国的平均水平。我国国防支出仍有较大增长空间，未来或长期高于GDP增速2个百 分点左右。随着现代战争形态向信息化、智能化加速演进，未来我国国防支出结构将向新域新质方向倾 斜，而且军贸出口有望打开更大市场空间，行业或将进入内需外贸双轮驱动的快速发展阶段。 【更多产品】 截至2025年12月10日 09:52，航空航天ETF天弘(159241)盘中换手2.76%，成交1405.13万元。跟踪的国证 航天航空行业指数(CN5082)上涨0.80%，成分股国科军工(688543)上涨6.32%，盟升电子(688311)上涨 6.01%，航宇科技(688239)上涨5.16%，三角防务(300775)上涨4.46%，航新科技(300424)上涨3.57%。 截至12月9日，航空航天ETF天弘(159241)近半年规模增长3.47亿元，实现显著增长。 【产品亮点】 航空航天ETF天弘(159241)提供了高效把握核心军工空天机遇的工具，其跟踪国证航天指数，军工属性 极强，申万一级军工行业占比97 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点，行 业终结"增收不增利"困局，迈入"订单兑现+业绩驱动"的高质量发展阶段。2026年作为"十五五"开局之 年，板块将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与财务健康化的关键转折，投资主线聚焦军贸出口、新质战斗 力、军民融合及资产证券化四大高确定性方向。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点 风险提示 1)行业订单不及预期的风险，2)新技术新产品应用进度不及预期的风险；3)价格波动超出预期；4)相关 改革进展不及预期。 作为"十五五"规划开局之年与建军百年奋斗目标冲刺前夜，军工行业将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与 财务健康化的关键转折：核心判断有五：一是订单确定性显著增强，"十四五"尾单集中交付与"十五 五"新规划启动形成双轮驱动；二是需求结构加速向新质战斗力和消耗性作战能力倾斜；三是军贸成为 第二增长曲线，体系化出口打开高端市场天花板；四是军民融合深化，商业航天、低空经济、核聚变等 方向实现"军技民用、双向赋能"；五是财务质量全面改善，现金流与盈利能力进入上行通道，估值逻辑 从主题博弈转向基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector is experiencing a significant rise due to increasing geopolitical risks, with the aerospace index leading the gains among military-themed indices [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Catalysts - The military sector's strength is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, including recent provocative statements from Japan and renewed large-scale airstrikes by Russia on Ukraine, which have heightened global uncertainty [4]. - The upcoming maiden flight of China's reusable rocket "Zhuque-3" in mid-November is also a notable event that could attract market attention [4]. Group 2: Long-term Catalysts - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid the groundwork for the military industry, achieving significant milestones in weapon systems development, transitioning from research to small-scale production [8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on large-scale production and systematic combat capabilities, indicating a shift towards mass production of previously developed equipment [9]. - The emphasis on "high-quality transformation" in the military sector will drive demand for advanced technologies and materials, particularly in critical areas like high-end chips and aerospace engines [11][12]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The military sector has shown a recovery trend, with a reported 16.99% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 14.01% increase in net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [15]. - Various sub-sectors, including defense information, aerospace, and commercial space, are also showing signs of recovery [15]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - Institutional investment in the military sector remains at historical lows, with a total market value of 101.36 billion yuan, ranking 14th among primary industries [21]. - There is a notable structural adjustment within institutional holdings, with active funds reducing their total positions while passive funds maintain stable increases [22]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - The military trade sector is expected to provide substantial growth opportunities, with exports of military equipment showing significant increases, such as a 30.6% year-on-year growth in September 2025 [20]. - The diversification of weapon procurement sources by various countries presents a strategic opportunity for China's military exports [20]. Group 6: Focus Areas - The aerospace index is highlighted as a key area of focus, with the aerospace ETF (159227) showing significant inflows and a strong performance in the market [34]. - The ETF's top holdings reflect the core supply chain of the aerospace industry, aligning with national strategic needs in defense and aerospace [34].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is positioned as a high-potential investment sector driven by national security needs, military trade exports, and technological innovation through civil-military integration [1][3][4] Industry Dynamics - The military industry is experiencing a positive trend characterized by "economic recovery, value reassessment, and event-driven catalysts" [3] - The defense industry reported a revenue growth of 6.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reversing a decline of 0.57% in the first half of the year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders improved from -8.59% in the first half to 0.02% in the third quarter, indicating a recovery in industry performance [3] Investment Opportunities - The military trade export structure has shifted from reliance on imports to high-value exports, with a significant decrease in import share from 4.3% in 2015 to 0.2% in 2024 [4] - The 2025 defense budget is projected at 1.78 trillion yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 7.2%, indicating a stable growth foundation for defense investments [3] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the military industry is approximately 85.77, significantly higher than the overall market average of 22.59 [5][6] - The valuation premium in the military sector is attributed to high barriers to entry and the long-term investment required for core technology development [6] Investment Tools - The military industry presents complexities and information asymmetries, making it challenging for ordinary investors to participate directly [8] - The military leader ETF (code: 512710) offers a transparent and accessible investment vehicle, tracking the military leader index that focuses on leading companies across the military supply chain [8][9] Market Sentiment - As of October 30, the military leader ETF has seen a net inflow of 6.413 billion yuan this year, with a total scale of 13.735 billion yuan, reflecting strong market recognition [2][10] - The investment in the military sector is viewed as a long-term confidence in national technological strength and security, aligning with national strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is positioned as a high-potential investment sector, driven by national security needs, military trade exports, and technological innovation through military-civilian integration, highlighting its long-term investment value as the country transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The military industry is experiencing a positive trend characterized by "economic recovery, value reassessment, and event-driven catalysts" [4] - The defense and military sector's revenue for the first three quarters showed a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, reversing a decline of 0.57% in the first half of the year [4] - The 2025 national defense budget is projected at 1.78 trillion yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 7.2%, indicating a stable foundation for continued investment [4] Group 2: Military Trade and Technological Integration - Military trade exports are a key variable for value reassessment, with China's military trade export structure shifting towards high-value areas such as drones and stealth fighters [5] - The integration of military and civilian technologies is creating new growth paths, with military high-tech accelerating its transition into civilian sectors like commercial aerospace and logistics [5] Group 3: Valuation and Market Perception - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the A-share military industry is approximately 85.77, significantly higher than the overall market average of 22.59, raising concerns about overvaluation [7] - The valuation of military enterprises should consider their strategic importance, technological barriers, and profit certainty, rather than relying solely on traditional metrics [7] - The global military industry valuation logic is being restructured, with a shift from traditional manufacturing to technology-driven platforms, emphasizing long-term growth potential [8] Group 4: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - The military industry presents significant complexity and information asymmetry, making direct investment challenging for ordinary investors [11] - The military leader ETF (code: 512710) offers a transparent and accessible investment tool, tracking the military leader index that focuses on leading enterprises across the military supply chain [11][13] - The military leader index includes key players from all segments of the military industry, providing a diversified investment approach that mitigates individual stock risks [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and investment opportunities in China's military industry, driven by recent geopolitical tensions and upcoming military events, particularly the September 3 parade showcasing new domestic military equipment [4][5][11]. Summary by Sections Military Industry Performance - A-share military-related sectors, including military equipment and drone concepts, experienced a short-term surge, with companies like Zhongtian Rocket and Chengfei Integration hitting the daily limit [4]. - The China Securities Military Index has risen over 20% year-to-date as of August 18, 2025, outperforming many other sectors [4]. Fund Performance - Nearly all 120 defense and military-themed mutual funds have achieved positive returns this year, with 66 funds yielding over 20% and some exceeding 40% [4][5]. - Among funds with over 20 billion yuan in assets, the average return is 25.12%, with the top performers being Bosera Fund's Bosera Military Theme Stock A, Huaxia Fund's Huaxia Military Security Mixed A, and GF Fund's GF Small and Medium Cap Selected Mixed A [5][7]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Zeng Peng of Bosera Military Theme Stock A reported a year-to-date return of 35.84%, significantly outperforming the benchmark [7]. - The fund maintained a high allocation in missile industry chains and sectors like military AI, drones, and information security, anticipating continued strong performance in the third quarter due to geopolitical catalysts [7][11]. Fund Rankings by Size - For funds with 5-20 billion yuan, the top performer is the China Europe High-end Equipment Stock Initiation C, managed by Li Shuai, with a return of 41.04% [9][10]. - In the 1-5 billion yuan category, the China Europe High-end Equipment Stock Initiation A leads with a return of 41.47% [13][14]. - The top fund in the 1 million to 10 million yuan category is the Huafu Guotai Min'an Flexible Allocation Mixed A, achieving a return of 42.72% [16][17]. Future Outlook - The military industry is expected to see a performance boost due to anticipated quarterly reports showing earnings turning points for many military companies and the upcoming military parade [11][18]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes modernization in defense and military capabilities, indicating a strategic shift for China's military industry towards leading rather than following [18].

Core Viewpoint - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, entering the implementation phase, which is expected to boost the military industry sector [1][4]. Group 1: Merger Details - The merger involves a share swap and will lead to the suspension of trading for both companies' stocks starting August 13, with China Heavy Industry's stock being delisted [4]. - The merger is seen as a significant move in the military industry, potentially reducing domestic competition and enhancing military trade exports [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The military industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to ongoing mergers and acquisitions, with state-owned enterprises possessing numerous advantageous assets [5]. - Recent geopolitical events and increased military spending globally are likely to drive demand for military trade, enhancing the competitiveness of China's military products [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The completion of the BeiDou-3 global satellite navigation system has shown significant growth, with the industry scale projected to increase from 403.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 570 billion yuan by 2024, and expected to exceed 600 billion yuan by the end of this year [7]. - The military industry is entering a fundamental upward cycle, driven by domestic demand for modernization and the transition towards intelligent and unmanned systems [7]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - The upcoming military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan is expected to positively impact the military sector, as historical trends indicate a surge in military stock performance leading up to such events [8][10]. - The current period marks a transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, with significant growth in military contracts and orders anticipated [10]. Group 5: Investment Tools - The military ETF (512660) is highlighted as a key investment tool, covering the entire military industry chain and currently leading in scale among similar products [10].

Core Viewpoint - AVIC (02357) shares rose over 6%, closing at HKD 4.82 with a trading volume of HKD 298 million, following news of Pakistan's military incorporating Chinese-made Z-10ME helicopters into its army aviation units, aimed at modernizing defense equipment [1] Company Summary - AVIC is the only flagship company in Hong Kong's capital market focused on aerospace high-tech military and civilian general products and services, holding stakes in four A-share listed companies: AVIC Helicopter (600038), Hongdu Aviation (600316), AVIC Avionics (600372), and AVIC Optoelectronics (002179) [1] - The company's main business areas include helicopters, trainer aircraft, general aviation, airborne systems, aviation components, and aviation engineering services [1] Industry Summary - According to Zheshang Securities (601878), ongoing geopolitical conflicts by 2025 are expected to provide practical testing for China's military trade export equipment, potentially leading to a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [1] - Industrial sentiment in the military sector is anticipated to be catalyzed by significant events, such as the upcoming military parade on September 3, which is expected to attract considerable public attention [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline on August 4, with the military industry sector performing strongly, showing resilience against the market downturn [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) recorded a rise of 1.31%, with key holdings such as Great Wall Military, Aerospace Electronics, and Zhenxin Technology increasing by over 7% [1] - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported significant military actions against Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the increasing importance of air power in modern warfare and the high technological barriers in the military industry [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a strong military attribute, with 97.86% of the index comprising military-related sectors [1] - The weight of aerospace equipment in the ETF is 66.8%, significantly higher than that of the CSI Military and CSI National Defense indices, providing investors with an efficient way to capture core military aerospace opportunities [1] - Zhejiang Securities predicts that ongoing geopolitical conflicts will lead to a reassessment of the value of China's defense and military enterprises, as military exports gain practical validation in overseas conflicts [2]

Group 1 - A-shares indices continue to rise, with the aerospace and defense sector showing strong performance, particularly the Aerospace ETF (159227) which increased by 1.51% with a trading volume of 83.13 million yuan [1] - The aerospace ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with over 335 million yuan net inflow since July, reaching a new high of 663 million yuan in total assets [1] - The aerospace sector is becoming a focal point in modern warfare, with high technical barriers and significant value contribution within the military industrial chain, making it a core area for investment [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical conflicts are expected to persist into 2025, providing practical validation for China's military trade exports, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [2]