正信期货研究院 黑色小组 研究员：杨辉 宏观预期降温， 8月双焦阶段性回调 煤焦月度报告 20250804 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 7月大幅反弹，8月面临阶段性回调；现货提涨落地四轮，8月初落地第五轮 | | | 供给 | 焦企供应恢复缓慢 | | | 需求 | 铁水维持高位，原料刚需支撑较强；投机情绪先强后弱，出口利润下滑，建材成交阶段性改善后再走弱 | | | 库存 | 焦企、钢厂降库，港口增库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 吨焦盈利改善不明显，焦炭盘面利润回落 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水收敛，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 焦炭方面，现货提涨落地四轮，但原料煤反弹，焦企盈利改善不明显，供应端变化不大。需求方面，铁水小幅下滑，尚在高 位，刚需支撑较强，近期北方降雨运力不畅，钢厂到货相对吃力。 | | | 价格 供应 | 7月大涨大跌，8月面临阶段性回调；现货大幅反弹 7月产地煤矿复产较慢，洗煤厂开工率略有回升；蒙煤通 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets had significant rebounds last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The macro - expectation trading remains strong before the Politburo meeting, and the fundamental supply has not fully recovered, while the demand shows certain resilience. The coking coal and coke spot prices have started to increase, and the futures - cash resonance market is expected to continue [4][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to close all previous short positions and wait for the end of the rebound [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The coke futures rebounded significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The first round of spot price increase has started and is expected to be implemented this week. The coke 09 contract rose 5.81% to 1519.5 as of Friday's close [4][7][10]. - The spot prices of coke in different regions showed different trends. Some remained stable, while the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke decreased by 3 US dollars/ton [11]. - The freight rates for coke transportation remained stable [18]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operation rate of coking enterprises continued to decline, and the supply has not recovered. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 64.08 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from the previous week [24][26]. 3.1.3 Demand - Steel mills increased their procurement, and the inventory of coking plants decreased smoothly. As of July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [33][35]. - The speculative sentiment was good, the export profit remained positive, and the daily trading volume of building materials spot slightly improved. Although the export profit of coke will decline slightly after the first - round price increase, it will still remain positive, but the proportion of coke exports in demand is very low [36][38]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills and ports increased their inventories, while the upstream coking plants reduced their inventories, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 930.96 tons, with the port inventory increasing by 8.96 tons to 200.08 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory decreasing by 9.02 tons to 93.08 tons, and the 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 0.31 tons to 637.80 tons [39][41][44]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coking coal futures rebounded more strongly than coke, causing the coking profit on the coke futures market to decline slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous week, and the coking profit of the coke 09 contract decreased by 9.05 yuan/ton to 332.6 yuan/ton [49][51]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 86.5 to - 260.74 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11 to - 28.5 [53][55]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The coking coal futures rose significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The coking coal 09 contract rose 7.41% to 913 as of Friday's close [4][58]. - The spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends. The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian coal at some ports changed, and the CFR price of Australian coking coal decreased slightly [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply in the producing areas recovered slowly, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were still under production cuts. As of July 10, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 62.32%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 52.58 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons from the previous week [64][66][69]. - The import volume of coking coal decreased. The opening of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia led to a 5 - day closure of the port, reducing the import of Mongolian coal. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 43.79 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [70][72]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The upstream inventory decreased, coking enterprises replenished their stocks, port inventory increased, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, the total coking coal inventory increased by 4.53 tons to 25.7117 million tons, with the mine enterprise inventory decreasing by 32.43 tons to 3.7718 million tons, the port inventory increasing by 17.37 tons to 3.2164 million tons, the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants decreasing by 17.91 tons to 1.9707 million tons, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increasing by 44.17 tons to 8.9235 million tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreasing by 6.67 tons to 7.8293 million tons [73][75][78]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 43.5 to - 68 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 16 to - 33 [88][90][91].