行业深度："反内卷" - 煤炭执牛耳 20250922 摘要 国家首次正式出台煤炭反内卷政策（108 号文），旨在规范煤炭产量， 要求 2024 年产量不超过公告产能，2025 年上半年不超过 10%，重点 核查晋陕蒙疆等主产区，以稳定煤炭市场。 各省已自查并上报煤炭产量，内蒙古自查显示存在严重超产问题。政策 执行难点在于公告产能年份未明确，可能导致部分地区，尤其是大型先 进矿井，面临较大减产压力，预计影响量达 8,500 万吨。 内蒙古在产矿井约 300 座，合计产能 12.31 亿吨，与 2022 年 1 月公告 产能相符，意味着 2022 年后核增的约 4 亿吨产能可能不被纳入。反内 卷政策将收缩煤炭供给，部分手续不全的核增矿井或需退回。 中国历史上多次通过限制进口稳定煤价，如 2014 年商品煤质量管理办 法和 2020 年限制澳煤进口。当前国际局势复杂，直接限制进口难度大， 但国家统筹安排可防止国外供应大量涌入。 煤炭供给侧改革始于 2015 年底，通过去产能、停建项目及配套支持政 策，有效改善行业状况。目前全国一级矿井总产能达 20 亿吨，单井规 模显著增加，表明去产能政策成功。 Q&A 煤炭反内 ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been declining, with July's PPI showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The stability of coal prices is closely linked to PPI, and the lowest coal prices in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with strict capacity controls and increasing operational difficulties leading to a tighter supply. The report suggests that coal will remain a key energy source in the short term, despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand [5][6] - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operating performance, and high or potentially increasing dividend ratios [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index increased by 0.31% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.81%. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 9.32%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has risen by 13.35% [11][12] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of September 5, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 679 CNY/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week. The average daily production from 462 sample mines was 5.379 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [3][21] 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 674 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [23] 2.3 Spot Prices - The report details various spot prices for thermal coal across different regions, indicating slight fluctuations in prices [27][28] 2.4 Supply and Demand - The report notes a slight decrease in daily consumption by major power plants, with a total inventory of 13.388 million tons, reflecting a minor decline [37][48] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - The report highlights the price changes for coking coal, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port dropping to 1540 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.3% week-on-week [62][63] 3.2 Spot Prices - Various spot prices for coking coal are provided, showing both increases and decreases across different regions [66][68]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that reversing deflation is the fundamental goal, with July PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize, with the lowest point in 2024 potentially being a policy bottom. Future supply-side policies are expected to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are anticipated to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index fell by 0.87% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.37%. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.88%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 6.8%, resulting in a 14.68 percentage point underperformance [15]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 15, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 698 CNY/ton, up 2.3% week-on-week. The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.658 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [3][25][41]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [27]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price increased by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the year-on-year decline was 16.5%. Prices in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi also saw slight increases, while prices in Shaanxi remained stable [31][32]. 2.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions rose to 80.8% as of August 10, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.658 million tons, with a utilization rate of 93.9% [39][41]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 15, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was stable at 1610 CNY/ton, with no week-on-week change. The prices in Shanxi, Henan, and Anhui also remained unchanged [78][79]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The report indicates that the prices of coking coal in various regions have remained stable, with year-on-year declines noted in several areas [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July, coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell, with significant fluctuations in the futures market. By July 31, coke 09 rose 12.47% to close at 1601, and coking coal 09 rose 24.09% to close at 1045.5. Looking ahead to August, the market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term corrections in the futures market. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in the correction, but the overall correction space may be limited. The strategy is to lightly short coking coal in the short - term and monitor coal mine production trends around mid - to late August to decide on exiting short positions and looking for potential long - entry opportunities [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In July, coke prices rebounded significantly and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices had four rounds of increases in July and a fifth round at the beginning of August. For example, the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price increased from 980 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton. Freight rates for coke transportation showed a mixed trend, with some routes increasing and some decreasing [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise supply recovered slowly. As of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 73.69%, with a slight increase compared to the previous week and the previous month. The daily coke output was 64.81 tons, also showing a slight increase [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. As of August 1, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.71 tons. Speculative sentiment was strong at first and then weakened, export profits declined, and building material sales improved temporarily and then weakened again [33][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Coke inventories at coke enterprises and steel mills decreased, while port inventories increased, resulting in a decline in total inventories. As of August 1, the total coke inventory was 915.41 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke did not improve significantly, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of July 31, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, with a slight increase compared to the previous month. As of August 1, the coke 09 futures market profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 304.5 yuan/ton [50]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 converged, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of August 1, the coke 09 basis was - 111.18, an increase compared to June, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39, a decrease compared to the previous month [54]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In July, coking coal prices rose strongly and then fell sharply, and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices rebounded significantly. For example, the price of Jinzhong medium - sulfur primary coking coal increased from 930 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton [57][60]. 3.2.2 Supply - In July, coal mine复产 was slow, and the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly. Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, but from January to June, coking coal imports decreased year - on - year. By the end of July, the daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port exceeded 1100 vehicles [63][66][71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, coal mine inventories decreased significantly, and total inventories declined. As of August 1, the total coking coal inventory was 2493.27 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [74]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 was basically at par, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of August 1, the coking coal 09 basis was 10, an increase compared to the previous month, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 107.5, a decrease compared to the previous month [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets had significant rebounds last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The macro - expectation trading remains strong before the Politburo meeting, and the fundamental supply has not fully recovered, while the demand shows certain resilience. The coking coal and coke spot prices have started to increase, and the futures - cash resonance market is expected to continue [4][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to close all previous short positions and wait for the end of the rebound [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The coke futures rebounded significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The first round of spot price increase has started and is expected to be implemented this week. The coke 09 contract rose 5.81% to 1519.5 as of Friday's close [4][7][10]. - The spot prices of coke in different regions showed different trends. Some remained stable, while the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke decreased by 3 US dollars/ton [11]. - The freight rates for coke transportation remained stable [18]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operation rate of coking enterprises continued to decline, and the supply has not recovered. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 64.08 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from the previous week [24][26]. 3.1.3 Demand - Steel mills increased their procurement, and the inventory of coking plants decreased smoothly. As of July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [33][35]. - The speculative sentiment was good, the export profit remained positive, and the daily trading volume of building materials spot slightly improved. Although the export profit of coke will decline slightly after the first - round price increase, it will still remain positive, but the proportion of coke exports in demand is very low [36][38]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills and ports increased their inventories, while the upstream coking plants reduced their inventories, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 930.96 tons, with the port inventory increasing by 8.96 tons to 200.08 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory decreasing by 9.02 tons to 93.08 tons, and the 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 0.31 tons to 637.80 tons [39][41][44]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coking coal futures rebounded more strongly than coke, causing the coking profit on the coke futures market to decline slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous week, and the coking profit of the coke 09 contract decreased by 9.05 yuan/ton to 332.6 yuan/ton [49][51]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 86.5 to - 260.74 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11 to - 28.5 [53][55]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The coking coal futures rose significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The coking coal 09 contract rose 7.41% to 913 as of Friday's close [4][58]. - The spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends. The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian coal at some ports changed, and the CFR price of Australian coking coal decreased slightly [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply in the producing areas recovered slowly, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were still under production cuts. As of July 10, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 62.32%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 52.58 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons from the previous week [64][66][69]. - The import volume of coking coal decreased. The opening of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia led to a 5 - day closure of the port, reducing the import of Mongolian coal. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 43.79 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [70][72]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The upstream inventory decreased, coking enterprises replenished their stocks, port inventory increased, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, the total coking coal inventory increased by 4.53 tons to 25.7117 million tons, with the mine enterprise inventory decreasing by 32.43 tons to 3.7718 million tons, the port inventory increasing by 17.37 tons to 3.2164 million tons, the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants decreasing by 17.91 tons to 1.9707 million tons, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increasing by 44.17 tons to 8.9235 million tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreasing by 6.67 tons to 7.8293 million tons [73][75][78]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 43.5 to - 68 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 16 to - 33 [88][90][91].

江苏徐矿能源股份有限公司 （Jiangsu Xukuang Energy Co., Ltd.） （徐州市徐州经济技术开发区软件园 E2 楼三层） 首次公开发行股票招股说明书 保荐机构（主承销商） （深圳市前海深港合作区南山街道桂湾五路128号前海深港基金小镇B7栋401） 江苏徐矿能源股份有限公司 招股说明书 江苏徐矿能源股份有限公司 招股说明书 | | 1、自发行人股票上市之日起 12 个月内及自本公司取得发行人 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股票（份）之日起 36 个月内（以期限届满较晚者为准），不转 | | | | | | 让或者委托他人管理本公司持有的发行人首次公开发行股票 | | | | | | 前已发行的股份，也不由发行人回购该部分股份。中国证监会、 | | | | | | 上海证券交易所关于股份锁定期另有规定的，从其规定。 | | | | | | 2、本公司若未履行上述承诺，由此产生的收益将归发行人所 | | | | | | 有，并及时、充分披露承诺未能履行、无法履行或无法按期履 | | | | | | 行的具体原因并向投资者道歉。如本公 ...