Core Viewpoint - The coal price is expected to show a trend of low first and high later in 2026, with the annual average likely to remain similar to that of 2025. Demand may be a major drag, but supply-side constraints are relatively strong [2][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal industry is not facing overcapacity. The unexpected decline in coal prices this year is attributed to excessive production beyond approved capacity, which poses challenges to safety and environmental standards. If supply-demand conditions become overly loose, policies may tighten supply under reasonable and legal pretenses [2][11]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain at a peak platform. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, green energy may start to squeeze existing coal power demand, but overall electricity demand is projected to grow steadily, maintaining thermal coal demand at a peak level with limited risk of significant decline [2][9]. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply of domestic coking coal is expected to have limited upward elasticity in 2026, but imports from Mongolia may increase, leading to a relatively loose overall supply of coking coal. The uncertainty surrounding steel production cuts may affect actual reductions [3]. Historical Review of 2025 - The supply was rational in 2025, leading to a rebound in coal prices. From mid-2024 to July 2025, coal prices were under pressure due to weak demand and intensified competition. However, from July 2025 onwards, supply contraction and stabilizing demand led to a rebound in coal prices [6][5]. 2026 Outlook - Coal prices are expected to be low in the first half of 2026 and improve in the second half, with the average price likely to remain stable compared to 2025. The demand may be weak initially, but marginal improvements are anticipated later in the year [9][20]. Cost and Supply Constraints - The coal industry is experiencing rising costs due to resource depletion, safety investments, and increased labor costs. The average cost of coal for listed companies has been gradually increasing from 2016 to 2023, indicating that even low-cost leading companies are facing cost pressures [12][19]. - The overall debt pressure in the coal industry has decreased, providing a stronger basis for rejecting "involution-style" competition. The industry is transitioning from debt-driven production activities to profit-driven ones [19]. Non-Electric Coal Demand - The demand for coal in construction and steel is stabilizing at a low level due to weak real estate and infrastructure. However, chemical coal demand is a growth highlight, with significant increases driven by project launches and profitability [26]. Supply Outlook - Domestic coal production is expected to be released in a rational manner, with supply contraction as the main theme in the second half of 2025. The industry policies will likely focus on safe and orderly capacity release to avoid irrational price declines [28][30]. - New capacity additions are relatively limited, with a decrease in new projects and capacity increases observed in 2025 compared to 2024 [30].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal industry, particularly focusing on the newly introduced "anti-involution" policy aimed at regulating coal production in China [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Introduction of Anti-Involution Policy**: The Chinese government has officially introduced the anti-involution policy (Document 108), which mandates that coal production in 2024 should not exceed announced capacity, and in the first half of 2025, it should not exceed 10% of that capacity [1][3]. - **Production Capacity and Compliance**: Provinces have conducted self-inspections, revealing significant overproduction issues, particularly in Inner Mongolia, where approximately 300 mines have a total capacity of 1.231 billion tons, aligning with the 2022 announced capacity [1][5][9]. - **Impact on Supply**: The anti-involution policy is expected to significantly reduce coal supply, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of around 85 million tons due to overproduction and the need for some mines to revert to previous capacity levels [1][10][6]. - **Historical Context**: The policy is part of a broader trend of supply-side reforms initiated in late 2015, which aimed to address severe industry losses and improve profitability through capacity reduction and support measures [1][13][14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The coal market is influenced by various factors, including the declining growth of electricity demand and the increasing installation of renewable energy sources like solar and hydropower, which are expected to limit coal's growth in the coming years [1][23][24]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: A forecast indicates that natural gas prices will decline in 2025 and 2026, which may further suppress the coal market, potentially leading to a significant turning point in supply and demand by 2027 [1][26]. Additional Important Insights - **PPI Control**: The coal industry plays a crucial role in controlling the Producer Price Index (PPI), with high raw material prices impacting downstream industries. The government aims to stabilize the economy by managing coal prices [1][18][20]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite high stock prices, the valuation of coal companies, particularly coking coal stocks, remains low, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the sector [1][27][28]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The industry is expected to enter a long-term upward cycle, with the lowest point anticipated around July 2025. Current low institutional holdings suggest potential for significant investment opportunities [1][29]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the coal industry conference call, highlighting the implications of the new policy, market dynamics, and future trends.

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been declining, with July's PPI showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The stability of coal prices is closely linked to PPI, and the lowest coal prices in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with strict capacity controls and increasing operational difficulties leading to a tighter supply. The report suggests that coal will remain a key energy source in the short term, despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand [5][6] - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operating performance, and high or potentially increasing dividend ratios [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index increased by 0.31% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.81%. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 9.32%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has risen by 13.35% [11][12] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of September 5, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 679 CNY/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week. The average daily production from 462 sample mines was 5.379 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [3][21] 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 674 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [23] 2.3 Spot Prices - The report details various spot prices for thermal coal across different regions, indicating slight fluctuations in prices [27][28] 2.4 Supply and Demand - The report notes a slight decrease in daily consumption by major power plants, with a total inventory of 13.388 million tons, reflecting a minor decline [37][48] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - The report highlights the price changes for coking coal, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port dropping to 1540 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.3% week-on-week [62][63] 3.2 Spot Prices - Various spot prices for coking coal are provided, showing both increases and decreases across different regions [66][68]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that reversing deflation is the fundamental goal, with July PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize, with the lowest point in 2024 potentially being a policy bottom. Future supply-side policies are expected to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are anticipated to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index fell by 0.87% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.37%. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.88%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 6.8%, resulting in a 14.68 percentage point underperformance [15]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 15, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 698 CNY/ton, up 2.3% week-on-week. The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.658 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [3][25][41]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [27]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price increased by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the year-on-year decline was 16.5%. Prices in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi also saw slight increases, while prices in Shaanxi remained stable [31][32]. 2.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions rose to 80.8% as of August 10, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The average daily output of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.658 million tons, with a utilization rate of 93.9% [39][41]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of August 15, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was stable at 1610 CNY/ton, with no week-on-week change. The prices in Shanxi, Henan, and Anhui also remained unchanged [78][79]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The report indicates that the prices of coking coal in various regions have remained stable, with year-on-year declines noted in several areas [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July, coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell, with significant fluctuations in the futures market. By July 31, coke 09 rose 12.47% to close at 1601, and coking coal 09 rose 24.09% to close at 1045.5. Looking ahead to August, the market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term corrections in the futures market. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in the correction, but the overall correction space may be limited. The strategy is to lightly short coking coal in the short - term and monitor coal mine production trends around mid - to late August to decide on exiting short positions and looking for potential long - entry opportunities [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In July, coke prices rebounded significantly and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices had four rounds of increases in July and a fifth round at the beginning of August. For example, the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price increased from 980 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton. Freight rates for coke transportation showed a mixed trend, with some routes increasing and some decreasing [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise supply recovered slowly. As of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 73.69%, with a slight increase compared to the previous week and the previous month. The daily coke output was 64.81 tons, also showing a slight increase [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. As of August 1, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.71 tons. Speculative sentiment was strong at first and then weakened, export profits declined, and building material sales improved temporarily and then weakened again [33][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Coke inventories at coke enterprises and steel mills decreased, while port inventories increased, resulting in a decline in total inventories. As of August 1, the total coke inventory was 915.41 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke did not improve significantly, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of July 31, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, with a slight increase compared to the previous month. As of August 1, the coke 09 futures market profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 304.5 yuan/ton [50]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 converged, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of August 1, the coke 09 basis was - 111.18, an increase compared to June, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39, a decrease compared to the previous month [54]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In July, coking coal prices rose strongly and then fell sharply, and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices rebounded significantly. For example, the price of Jinzhong medium - sulfur primary coking coal increased from 930 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton [57][60]. 3.2.2 Supply - In July, coal mine复产 was slow, and the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly. Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, but from January to June, coking coal imports decreased year - on - year. By the end of July, the daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port exceeded 1100 vehicles [63][66][71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, coal mine inventories decreased significantly, and total inventories declined. As of August 1, the total coking coal inventory was 2493.27 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [74]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 was basically at par, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of August 1, the coking coal 09 basis was 10, an increase compared to the previous month, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 107.5, a decrease compared to the previous month [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets had significant rebounds last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The macro - expectation trading remains strong before the Politburo meeting, and the fundamental supply has not fully recovered, while the demand shows certain resilience. The coking coal and coke spot prices have started to increase, and the futures - cash resonance market is expected to continue [4][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to close all previous short positions and wait for the end of the rebound [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The coke futures rebounded significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The first round of spot price increase has started and is expected to be implemented this week. The coke 09 contract rose 5.81% to 1519.5 as of Friday's close [4][7][10]. - The spot prices of coke in different regions showed different trends. Some remained stable, while the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke decreased by 3 US dollars/ton [11]. - The freight rates for coke transportation remained stable [18]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operation rate of coking enterprises continued to decline, and the supply has not recovered. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 64.08 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from the previous week [24][26]. 3.1.3 Demand - Steel mills increased their procurement, and the inventory of coking plants decreased smoothly. As of July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [33][35]. - The speculative sentiment was good, the export profit remained positive, and the daily trading volume of building materials spot slightly improved. Although the export profit of coke will decline slightly after the first - round price increase, it will still remain positive, but the proportion of coke exports in demand is very low [36][38]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills and ports increased their inventories, while the upstream coking plants reduced their inventories, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 930.96 tons, with the port inventory increasing by 8.96 tons to 200.08 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory decreasing by 9.02 tons to 93.08 tons, and the 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 0.31 tons to 637.80 tons [39][41][44]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coking coal futures rebounded more strongly than coke, causing the coking profit on the coke futures market to decline slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous week, and the coking profit of the coke 09 contract decreased by 9.05 yuan/ton to 332.6 yuan/ton [49][51]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 86.5 to - 260.74 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11 to - 28.5 [53][55]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The coking coal futures rose significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The coking coal 09 contract rose 7.41% to 913 as of Friday's close [4][58]. - The spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends. The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian coal at some ports changed, and the CFR price of Australian coking coal decreased slightly [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply in the producing areas recovered slowly, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were still under production cuts. As of July 10, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 62.32%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 52.58 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons from the previous week [64][66][69]. - The import volume of coking coal decreased. The opening of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia led to a 5 - day closure of the port, reducing the import of Mongolian coal. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 43.79 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [70][72]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The upstream inventory decreased, coking enterprises replenished their stocks, port inventory increased, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, the total coking coal inventory increased by 4.53 tons to 25.7117 million tons, with the mine enterprise inventory decreasing by 32.43 tons to 3.7718 million tons, the port inventory increasing by 17.37 tons to 3.2164 million tons, the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants decreasing by 17.91 tons to 1.9707 million tons, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increasing by 44.17 tons to 8.9235 million tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreasing by 6.67 tons to 7.8293 million tons [73][75][78]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 43.5 to - 68 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 16 to - 33 [88][90][91].

江苏徐矿能源股份有限公司 （Jiangsu Xukuang Energy Co., Ltd.） （徐州市徐州经济技术开发区软件园 E2 楼三层） 首次公开发行股票招股说明书 保荐机构（主承销商） （深圳市前海深港合作区南山街道桂湾五路128号前海深港基金小镇B7栋401） 江苏徐矿能源股份有限公司 招股说明书 江苏徐矿能源股份有限公司 招股说明书 | | 1、自发行人股票上市之日起 12 个月内及自本公司取得发行人 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股票（份）之日起 36 个月内（以期限届满较晚者为准），不转 | | | | | | 让或者委托他人管理本公司持有的发行人首次公开发行股票 | | | | | | 前已发行的股份，也不由发行人回购该部分股份。中国证监会、 | | | | | | 上海证券交易所关于股份锁定期另有规定的，从其规定。 | | | | | | 2、本公司若未履行上述承诺，由此产生的收益将归发行人所 | | | | | | 有，并及时、充分披露承诺未能履行、无法履行或无法按期履 | | | | | | 行的具体原因并向投资者道歉。如本公 ...