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化债攻坚期城投审批的边际变化:化债攻坚期城投审批的边际变化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-02-11 01:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the approval of urban investment bonds was characterized by a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low level of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect that the current implementation of debt - resolution policies continues the orientation of "strictly controlling increments, resolving existing stocks, and providing long - term empowerment." The issuance of the third batch of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds started in early January, and the Ministry of Finance further clarified that ultra - long - term special treasury bonds would continue to be arranged in 2026. Considering that 2026 is the sprint stage for debt resolution and the 6 - trillion - yuan replacement bond plan is coming to an end, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period of accelerating and improving efficiency. The debt - resolution paths will be more diverse, and the differentiation of debt - resolution effects among different regions will become more obvious. As the goal of clearing hidden debts approaches, local debt - resolution efforts will continue to increase, the market - oriented clearance process of financing platforms will accelerate, and measures to promote platform transformation through asset restructuring will be more in - depth [6][48]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Registration Situation: Continuous Increase in Urban Investment Registration Quotas - In January, the registration quota of urban investment platforms continued to rise. The registration scale of provincial, municipal, and district - county urban investment all increased to varying degrees, while the registration scale of weak - quality districts and counties declined. The scale in regions such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hubei increased significantly month - on - month [2][12]. - The planned issuance scale of urban investment bonds registered on the exchange was 315 billion yuan (previous value: 239.4 billion yuan), and that on DCM was 177.1 billion yuan (previous value: 168.5 billion yuan). The overall registration continued to rise and was higher than the quotas in the same period of the past three years [12]. - The proportion of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average among all administrative levels continued to decline for three months to 52%. The registration scale of district - county platforms with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan was 66.9 billion yuan (previous value: 92.3 billion yuan), and the three - month moving average proportion increased to 37.8% [15][18]. 3.2 Approval Feedback: Slowdown in Urban Investment Bond Approval - In January, the approval pace of DCM and the exchange for urban investment bonds slowed down. The average number of feedbacks from DCM was 2.4 times (previous value: 2.4 times), and the feedback time increased to 41.5 days (previous value: 40.6 days); the average number of feedbacks from the exchange was 4.2 times (previous value: 4.2 times), and the feedback time increased to 77.8 days (previous value: 68.9 days) [25]. - The feedback pace of public urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level cities accelerated significantly, while that of private urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level and district - county levels slowed down [30]. - The approval feedback days in Sichuan, Fujian, Hubei and other regions were significantly extended. The approval pace in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and other regions accelerated significantly, while Shandong and Henan continued the trend of a slowdown in the approval speed [32]. - The approval pace of weak - quality district - county platform bonds continued to slow down. The feedback days of district - county platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan were 67.2 days (previous value: 65.2 days), lower than the average of last year [35]. 3.3 Terminated Issuance: Low - Level Maintenance of Terminated Project Scale - In January, the scale of terminated projects remained at a low level. The planned issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds increased from 500 million yuan to 600 million yuan, and the number of terminated projects was the same as last month, both being 1. The proportion of the terminated scale of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average increased to 74% [37]. - The terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Hubei, mainly in district - county platforms [42]. 3.4 Research Conclusions and Suggestions - The approval of urban investment bonds in January showed the characteristics of a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low - level maintenance of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect the implementation of the current debt - resolution policy. Considering the debt - resolution situation in 2026, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period, with more diverse debt - resolution paths and more obvious differentiation in debt - resolution effects among regions. Local debt - resolution efforts will increase, and platform transformation will be promoted more deeply [6][48].