为深入贯彻新发展理念，加快推进高质量发展，近两年，国家系统部署并实施以超长期特别国债等政策 为支撑的"两重"建设项目--即国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设。这一战略性举措聚焦教育、 医疗、城市管网、交通基础设施、生态环保等关键环节，着力补齐短板、强化基础、提升能力，为经济 社会中长期健康发展奠定坚实基础。 "两重"建设并非短期刺激，而是着眼全局、立足长远的系统性工程。通过财政资金的定向投入与长期安 排，国家将资源更多配置到关乎国家安全、民生保障与持续发展的重点领域，推动公共服务体系全面升 级，增强经济韧性与发展可持续性。 在教育方面，"两重"项目着力推进基础教育优质均衡与高等教育创新能力建设，加速弥合区域、城乡间 的教育差距，为实施科教兴国、人才强国战略提供有力支撑。在医疗健康领域，项目重点完善基层医疗 服务网络、加强公共卫生应急能力、提升重大疾病救治水平，进一步筑牢全民健康屏障，推动优质医疗 资源扩容下沉、普惠可及。 城市基础设施是"两重"建设的另一重点。围绕城市更新、地下管网改造、防灾减灾能力提升等方面，一 系列项目正加快落地，切实解决老旧设施隐患、城市内涝、能源效率等长期存在的问题，推动城市运行 ...

跨入2026年，一切都是崭新的开始。 美联储预防性降息后，短端美债震荡下行，长端美债延续高位。大宗商品中金属和原油表现明显分化， 金银铜等金属均表现强势，全部创出历史新高。原油价格则震荡下行，表现偏弱。 （资料来源：南方基金宏观策略部整理，过往表现不预示未来） 不过，在咱们迈出新步伐之前，不妨先回头看看，刚刚过去的2025年第四季度，市场这盘棋下得怎么 样？ 而站在这个新起点上，我们又该如何思考接下来的布局呢？今天我就陪大家一起来复盘和展望。 01 市场表现回顾 我们先来简单回顾上个季度国内外大类资产表现。 先看国内资产：大类资产走势分化。A股区间震荡，有色、石化和通信板块涨幅居前。债券收益率窄幅 波动。反内卷相关商品价格有提振。人民币汇率相对一篮子货币小幅升值。 港股各基准指数均下跌，恒生科技、恒生小型股跌幅靠前，小型股表现弱于大型股。原材料、能源业、 金融业涨幅居前。 目光转向海外：四季度，美股和美债均高位震荡。标普500和纳斯达克创出历史新高后高位震荡。 02 宏观经济解读 复盘完过去，咱们的重点还是要看向未来。2026年一季度，宏观环境有哪些新风向？ 2026年是十五五起步之年，预计新旧动能加快转换， ...

延续必要财政支出强度 2026年赤字规模或接近6万亿元 中央经济工作会议提出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。业内人士表示，2026年的财政政策取向 与2025年保持一致，预计2026年财政将继续保持必要支出强度，赤字规模或接近6万亿元，新增专项债 规模或达5万亿元，同时消费税相关改革可能会加快。 保持必要债务总规模新增专项债将达5万亿元 债务管理是现代国家治理的重要内容，合理扩张的债务能够充实财政资源，在保证必要财政支出强度 外，还能通过公共投资、消费补贴、社会福利支出等方式加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，增强财政政策 灵活性。 罗志恒表示，近年来，财政收入端制约了财政支出增速的进一步提升，通过提高新增债务额度，能充分 恢复地方政府发展经济的能力，进而推动企业和居民行为从防御走向扩张。他预计，2026年新增债务总 规模将提高到15万亿元。 吴棋滢认为，2026年广义赤字规模将随GDP规模小幅增加而增加，并更注重结构性调整。她预计，2026 年新增地方政府专项债券规模将达到5万亿元，超长期特别国债规模增至1.5万亿元，两者合计较2025年 增加0.6万亿元。"若2026年年中出现经济承压情况，可进一步调整特 ...

在听取市相关部门和板块政策性资金项目申报储备、2026年省市重大项目编报情况汇报后，李忠 军指出，积极争取政策资金和重大项目，对于扩大有效投资、提振发展信心具有重要作用。各级各部门 要进一步增强紧迫感和责任感，抢抓国家政策机遇的窗口期，找准承接落地的突破口，持续加大项目和 资金谋划争取力度，切实助推高质量发展取得更大成效。 1月4日，代市长李忠军专题研究政策性资金项目申报、重大项目编报工作时强调，要全面落实中 央和省市委经济工作会议精神，按照市委十五届十二次全会部署要求，靠前发力、主动作为，抢抓政策 机遇，精准谋划项目，为高质量发展积蓄强劲动能。市领导霍慧萍、许峰、孙百军、张蕴参加。 李忠军强调，要精准把握政策措施，密切关注超长期特别国债、中央预算内投资、地方政府专项债 等政策性资金投向，认真研究"两重""两新"等一揽子最新政策，积极主动向上沟通汇报，努力争取更多 指导支持，加快把政策红利转化为发展优势。要科学高效谋划项目，牢固树立"项目为王"理念，扎实做 好项目立项、规划等前期工作，提升项目成熟度和申报成功率，确保更多项目纳入国家、省"盘子"。要 持续强化政策宣传，聚焦"两重""两新"政策落实，主动深入走基 ...

2026年新年伊始，多地重大项目陆续开工建设。同时，地方也出台一揽子政策举措，助力经济实现"开 门红"。专家表示，从目前各地政府投资推进情况看，早谋划、早投资、早见效的靠前投资作用明显。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中央有望增加超长期特别国债对于"两重"项目的支持力度，进而通过对重 大基础设施领域的顶层部署，形成投资引导效应。（上证报） ...

2026年新年伊始，多地重大项目陆续开工建设。同时，地方也出台一揽子政策举措，助力经济实现"开 门红"。 专家表示，从目前各地政府投资推进情况看，早谋划、早投资、早见效的靠前投资作用明显。2026年 是"十五五"开局之年，中央有望增加超长期特别国债对于"两重"项目的支持力度，进而通过对重大基础 设施领域的顶层部署，形成投资引导效应。 ◎记者 李苑 重大项目密集开工 开局即决战，起步就冲刺。进入2026年，全国多地陆续开工建设一批重大项目，主要涉及民生补短板、 基础设施和城市更新、产业升级等领域。 围绕首季经济"开门红"工作目标，地方推出一揽子政策举措，拿出真金白银，鼓励企业积极投资生产。 山东日前发布的《2026年促进经济"稳中求进、提质增效"政策清单（第一批）》提出，要调整固定资产 投资考核、省属企业新兴产业投资激励政策，从省预算内投资中专列5000万元固定资产投资考核奖励资 金，按照固定资产投资、民间投资运行情况以及重点项目推进情况进行综合评价。同时，将优化土地、 碳排放、污染物排放等指标供给方式，保障重点项目建设。 福建厦门明确：加快厦漳泉城际铁路R1线等项目实施，争取厦门翔安国际机场具备校飞条件，力争 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, focusing on the construction of the national water network and the promotion of cross-border trade facilitation as key strategies for expanding domestic demand and improving the business environment in China [2][3]. Group 1: National Water Network Construction - The construction of the national water network is identified as a strategic measure to optimize water resource allocation, enhance flood prevention and disaster reduction capabilities, and ensure national water security [5]. - The meeting emphasized the need for innovative financing mechanisms to attract investments from state-owned enterprises and private capital, aiming to create a multi-channel funding approach for the water network project [5]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand fiscal spending to support necessary expenditures, with expectations for long-term special bonds to become a core financing tool for strategic investments [5]. Group 2: Cross-Border Trade Facilitation - The meeting outlined measures to promote cross-border trade facilitation, highlighting the importance of efficient cross-border logistics and the integration of various transportation methods [8]. - The development of green trade and cross-border e-commerce is encouraged, along with the optimization of special product regulations and the enhancement of smart regulatory services [8]. - The Customs General Administration is set to implement a special action plan for cross-border trade facilitation, aiming to accelerate logistics, optimize the trade environment, and reduce customs costs by 2026 [9].

国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超称："国家层面，继续合理把握工作节奏，按季度分批次下达资金。地方层面，我们将指导地方均衡有序 支出补贴资金，做好跨周、跨月、跨季度的平衡衔接。此外，要求地方建立补贴资金预拨付制度，减轻企业垫资压力。为做好今明两年政策衔 接，满足元旦、春节消费需求，2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已经向地方下达。" 李超表示，2026年，我国将严厉打击违法行为，严格资金审核，严格价格管理，对违反价格管理要求、存在违法违规行为的，将第一时间 取消参与资格，并依法依规予以处置。此外，还要严格执法监管，对骗补套补、"先涨后补"等违法违规行为，发现一起、查处一起、曝光一 起。 央视网消息：国家发展改革委12月31日举行新闻发布会，相关负责人表示，2026年，我国将从优化资金分配方式、均衡有序使用资金等方 面，完善"国补"政策实施机制。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超介绍，2026年，我国将优化资金分配方式。在原有资金分配标准的基础上，综合考虑前期政策执行情况、 审计发现问题等因素，合理确定各地资金分配规模。同时，对拖欠兑付较严重的地区，将通过适当方式加大督促和惩戒力度。同时， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 沪镍不锈钢市场周报 印尼政策情绪改善 镍不锈钢震荡偏强 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 关 注 我 们 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 获取更多资讯 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 周度回顾：本周沪镍主力延续上涨，周线涨跌幅为+4.81%，振幅8.99%。截止本周主力收盘报价132850元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美联储会议纪要："大多数"官员预计12月后适合继续降息，部分主张"一段时间"按兵不 动。2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已提前下达。基本面，菲律宾进入雨季， 镍矿进口量回落趋势；印尼明年RKAB计划大幅削减配额，原料供应趋紧引发市场担忧，长期仍需看传导进程。冶 炼端，印尼镍铁产量维持高位，回流国内数量预计增加；中国及印尼多个新建精炼镍项目陆续投产，虽中间品原 料紧张，利润亏损导致部分减产，产量依旧处于高位，但成本支撑增强。需求端，不锈钢成本镍铁下跌，钢厂利 润改善，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬 ...