东方金诚宏观研究 7 月财政收入端有所改善，支出端继续发力 —— 2025 年 7 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 2.7%， 6 月为-0.3%；7 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 3.0%，6 月为 0.4%；1-7 月全国政府性 基金收入累计同比下降 0.7%，1-6 月为-2.4%；1-7 月全国政府性基金支出累计同比增长 31.7%，1-6 月为 30.0%。 主要观点：7 月广义财政收入同比增速从上月的 2.8%继续加快至 3.6%，广义财政支 出同比增速则较上月回落 5.5 个百分点至 12.1%，但处于两位数增长，显示收入端延续改 善，支出端则体现财政发力特征。往后看，下半年财政将继续发力支撑支出端，尤其是在 基建投资类。一方面，在上半年用于隐债置换的地方政府再融资专项债集中发行后，下半 年用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债将大规模发行；另一方面，预计下半年有可能上调 支持"两重"投资的超长期特别国债发行规模，用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债和国 企稳增长扩投资专项债发行额度也可能上调。另外，由于今年上半年财政前 ...

● 本报记者 连润 王舒嫄 近日召开的国务院常务会议和全国消费品以旧换新工作推进电视电话会议对下阶段消费品以旧换新作出 部署，释放出政策支持加力信号。 专家表示，从当前各地对以旧换新政策优化调整的路径看，后续以旧换新政策有可能在上调资金支持规 模、扩大品类范围等方面发力，同时将进一步强化政策协同与技术赋能，确保政策红利直达消费者，有 效扩大内需、提振消费。 政策效果明显 今年以来，以旧换新政策持续发力，范围有所扩大，涉及产品越来越多。在政策带动下，传统消费领域 和智能消费领域活力持续释放，政策效果显著。 最新数据显示，7月，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类和通讯器材类商 品零售额同比分别增长了28.7%、13.8%、20.6%、14.9%，均明显快于商品零售额增速，继续支撑商品 销售增长。 以旧换新政策同样惠及汽车行业。最新发布的增值税发票数据显示，2024年4月至2025年7月，全国新能 源车销量同比增长81.7%，增长势头迅猛。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示："消费品以旧换新政策加力扩围，对相关商品销售带动作用继续显 现。" 支持力度料加码 从中央层面看，加力支持以旧换新的政策信 ...

作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 2025.08. 24 本文字数：2709，阅读时长大约4分钟 国务院常务会议再次部署扩大内需有关举措。 据新华社消息，国务院总理李强8月22日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取实施大规模设备更新和消费 品以旧换新政策情况汇报，研究释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见。 会议明确，要进一步强化财税金融等政策对"两新"的支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环 境，综合施策释放内需潜力。并对发展体育产业和体育消费作出部署。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对第一财经分析，下一步，为更好发挥"两新"政策对扩大内需的推动 作用，可有两个主要抓手：一是要加快超长期特别国债的发行使用，提高资金使用效率，使其促消 费、扩投资效应充分释放，缓解经济波动；二是要视实际情况需要，特别是根据下半年外需波动情 况，将适度增发超长期特别国债纳入政策储备，上调"两新"政策支持资金规模。 "两新"政策成效明显 国常会指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取 得明显成效。 国家发改委发布的数据显示，截至2025年7月16日，全国共有2.8亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴， ...

Group 1 - Major projects are crucial for economic development and high-quality growth, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported significant progress on the 102 major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with all targets expected to be met by the end of the year [1] - A total of 800 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support 1,459 projects by 2025, focusing on key areas such as ecological restoration and major transportation infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Continuous funding is necessary for major project construction, with expectations to increase funding supply next year, potentially raising special long-term bond issuance to over 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - Funding will be provided through various channels, including increased issuance of special long-term bonds, fiscal budget spending, and new policy financial tools to attract more social capital for project construction [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that in the first seven months of the year, local government special bonds, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and special treasury bonds for central financial institution capital injection amounted to 2.89 trillion yuan, leading to a 31.7% increase in government fund budget expenditures [1] Group 2 - The expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan is a significant driver for the growth in government fund budget spending [1] - The increase in government fund budget expenditures indicates a strong fiscal response to economic conditions [1] - The data reflects the government's strategy to utilize special bonds to stimulate economic activity [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30-year fixed-rate special government bonds with a total competitive bidding amount of 83 billion yuan on August 22, completing the issuance plan for August [1] - The total issuance scale of special government bonds in August will reach 235 billion yuan, making it the second highest monthly issuance this year, following May's 242 billion yuan [1] - The overall issuance plan for special government bonds this year is 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, with 996 billion yuan already issued, achieving a progress rate of 76.6% [1] Group 2 - Of the 1.3 trillion yuan special government bonds to be issued this year, 800 billion yuan will support "two major" projects, and 500 billion yuan will be allocated for "two new" policies [2] - As of August 13, 188 billion yuan in investment subsidy funds for equipment updates has been allocated, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, driving total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - The issuance and utilization of special government bonds are seen as having multiple positive implications for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods [2] Group 3 - From January to July, infrastructure investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, contributing 43% to overall investment growth, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the total investment growth rate [3] - Special government bonds play a crucial role in accelerating project progress and promoting industrial upgrades, providing solid financial support for infrastructure investment [3] - The injection of funds from special government bonds can leverage social capital, attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector and further promoting economic growth and employment [3]

Key Points - From July 1 to August 11, the total number of railway passengers exceeded 600 million, reaching 616 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% and an average daily passenger count of 14.675 million [3] - In the first seven months, the express delivery business volume reached 112.05 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [5] - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4% and high-tech manufacturing by 9.3% [8] - The service production index in July grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in information transmission, software, IT services (11.9%), finance (8.7%), and leasing and business services (8.0%) [15] - By June 2025, the total number of 5G base stations is expected to increase fivefold compared to 2020, reaching 4.55 million, while the number of broadband users is projected to grow 34 times to 226 million [13] - In the first half of the year, 13.278 million new business entities were established, including 4.62 million new enterprises and 8.629 million new individual businesses [21] - Under the "Two New" policy, from April 2024 to July 2025, the amount spent on machinery and equipment is expected to grow by 7.3%, with sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively, and new energy vehicle sales rising by 81.7% [23] - Recently, 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment upgrades has been fully allocated [19]

Group 1 - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - From January to July, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - Among the three major sectors, mining increased by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% in July [1] Group 2 - In July, 35 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in chemical manufacturing (7.2%), transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%), electrical machinery (10.2%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.2%) [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8.4% increase in added value, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, both exceeding the overall industrial growth rate by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [1] - The policy for equipment updates has stimulated demand across industries for upgrading equipment, supported by financial assistance and policy incentives [1] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 188 billion yuan of special government bonds for equipment updates have been allocated, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - Analysts predict that industrial production momentum may weaken in the second half of the year due to declining exports and increased domestic consumption and investment efforts [3] - The overall industrial production growth rate is expected to slow down, potentially aligning with or slightly below GDP growth, indicating a shift in economic growth drivers towards the service sector [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [4] - The ministry aims to support major industrial provinces in implementing supportive policies, fostering new growth points, and enhancing industrial transformation to stabilize industrial economic operations [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, while treasury bond futures weakened. The central bank continued net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly. Domestically, July's financial data showed structural differentiation, with the year - on - year growth rate of social financing rising for three consecutive months and credit weakening marginally. The policy effect of expanding domestic demand emerged, and foreign trade remained resilient. The Ministry of Finance launched a double - discount policy. Overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the market expected a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market is still anchored to equity fluctuations, and the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.12%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.36% respectively. T, TF, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 5478, 4113, and 16673 respectively, while TS decreased by 1961 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed a downward trend, except for some spreads like T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 which increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 13223, 6780, 2945, and 8709 respectively. The net short positions of T's top 20 increased by 1743, while those of TF, TS, and TL decreased by 1531, 2090, and 621 respectively [2]. 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, such as 220010.IB decreased by 0.0853, 250007.IB decreased by 0.1408 [2]. 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.45bp, 1.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.86bp, and 0.75bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 1.97bp, Shibor overnight remained unchanged, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 0.50bp, and Shibor 7 - day decreased by 0.80bp [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 1287 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1607 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the incremental social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were - 500 million yuan, M2 year - on - year growth rate was 8.8%, M1 was 5.6%, and M0 was 11.8%. - 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. - On August 18, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct the tender for the eighth - phase central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits, with an operation volume of 120 billion yuan and a term of 1 month [2]. 3.8 Key Data to Watch - On August 14 at 20:30, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 (in ten thousand people). - On August 15 at 20:30, the US retail sales month - on - month rate for July [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are on the rise, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further recovery of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Although the zinc price has dropped recently and downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand at low prices, overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,480 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 209,862 lots, down 3,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,808 lots, down 94 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 17,097 tons, up 905 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 78,475 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,390 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 1.5 dollars/ton, up 3.26 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 99,200 tons, up 8,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 7.71%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.21%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - China's social financing scale increment from January to July 2025 totaled 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and the new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan, and household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than last month. Trump said he would announce the new Fed chairperson earlier and has narrowed the candidates to three or four. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [3].