继续实施更加积极的财政政策。今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89万亿元、比上年 增加2300亿元。一般公共预算支出规模将首次达到30万亿元，比上年增加约1.27万亿元。拟发 行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作等。拟发行特别国债3000亿 元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，完善专项债券项 目负面清单管理和自审自发试点，重点支持建设重大项目、置换隐性债务、消化政府拖欠账款 等。 今年财政支出继续保持相当规模，要持续用力优化支出结构，更加注重支持提振消费、投资于 人、保障民生等方面，提高财政资金使用效益。中央财政增加对地方财力性转移支付规模，开 展整合统筹使用转移支付资金试点，增强地方自主财力和统筹能力。压实分级保障主体责任， 兜牢基层"三保"底线。各级政府要更好"当家理财"，建立健全增收节支机制，积极盘活利用存 量资源资产，严肃财经纪律，强化预算约束，严控一般性支出，坚决落实过紧日子的要求，务 必把省下来的每一分钱都用到发展的关键点、群众的急需处。 记者丨余纪昕 编辑丨方海平 肖嘉 国务院总理李强3月5日在政府工作报告中提出，我们将坚持稳中 ...

十四届全国人大四次会议3月5日在北京开幕。国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大四次会议作政府工作报告。 政府工作报告在提到继续实施更加积极的财政政策时说，今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89万亿元、比上年增加2300亿元。一般公共预算支出 规模将首次达到30万亿元、比上年增加约1.27万亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作等。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 来源：新华社 责编：李丹 校对： 杨立林 ...

十四届全国人大四次会议5日上午在人民大会堂开幕，习近平等党和国家领导人出席开幕会，国务院总理李强向大会作政府工作报告政府工作报告： 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 政府工作报告在提到继续实施更加积极的财政政策时说，今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89万亿元、比上年增加2300亿元。一般公共预算 支出规模将首次达到30万亿元、比上年增加约1.27万亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作等。 2026年赤字率拟按4%左右安排 拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元 ...

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 据"上海发展改革"公众号消息，上海市2026年节能减排专项资金和超长期特别国债安排计划（第三批） 发布，支持方向为国家汽车报废更新、汽车置换更新（燃油车、新能源），计划下达市节能减排专项资 金4323.2万元。 | 序号 | 支持万回 | 节能减排 专项资金 | 超长期特 别国债 | 负责 具体支持内容 | | 使用依据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万元) | (万元) | 部门 | | | | | | | | 安排经审核通过的2025年 第十三批103人次国家汽车 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the approval of urban investment bonds was characterized by a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low level of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect that the current implementation of debt - resolution policies continues the orientation of "strictly controlling increments, resolving existing stocks, and providing long - term empowerment." The issuance of the third batch of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds started in early January, and the Ministry of Finance further clarified that ultra - long - term special treasury bonds would continue to be arranged in 2026. Considering that 2026 is the sprint stage for debt resolution and the 6 - trillion - yuan replacement bond plan is coming to an end, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period of accelerating and improving efficiency. The debt - resolution paths will be more diverse, and the differentiation of debt - resolution effects among different regions will become more obvious. As the goal of clearing hidden debts approaches, local debt - resolution efforts will continue to increase, the market - oriented clearance process of financing platforms will accelerate, and measures to promote platform transformation through asset restructuring will be more in - depth [6][48]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Registration Situation: Continuous Increase in Urban Investment Registration Quotas - In January, the registration quota of urban investment platforms continued to rise. The registration scale of provincial, municipal, and district - county urban investment all increased to varying degrees, while the registration scale of weak - quality districts and counties declined. The scale in regions such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hubei increased significantly month - on - month [2][12]. - The planned issuance scale of urban investment bonds registered on the exchange was 315 billion yuan (previous value: 239.4 billion yuan), and that on DCM was 177.1 billion yuan (previous value: 168.5 billion yuan). The overall registration continued to rise and was higher than the quotas in the same period of the past three years [12]. - The proportion of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average among all administrative levels continued to decline for three months to 52%. The registration scale of district - county platforms with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan was 66.9 billion yuan (previous value: 92.3 billion yuan), and the three - month moving average proportion increased to 37.8% [15][18]. 3.2 Approval Feedback: Slowdown in Urban Investment Bond Approval - In January, the approval pace of DCM and the exchange for urban investment bonds slowed down. The average number of feedbacks from DCM was 2.4 times (previous value: 2.4 times), and the feedback time increased to 41.5 days (previous value: 40.6 days); the average number of feedbacks from the exchange was 4.2 times (previous value: 4.2 times), and the feedback time increased to 77.8 days (previous value: 68.9 days) [25]. - The feedback pace of public urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level cities accelerated significantly, while that of private urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level and district - county levels slowed down [30]. - The approval feedback days in Sichuan, Fujian, Hubei and other regions were significantly extended. The approval pace in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and other regions accelerated significantly, while Shandong and Henan continued the trend of a slowdown in the approval speed [32]. - The approval pace of weak - quality district - county platform bonds continued to slow down. The feedback days of district - county platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan were 67.2 days (previous value: 65.2 days), lower than the average of last year [35]. 3.3 Terminated Issuance: Low - Level Maintenance of Terminated Project Scale - In January, the scale of terminated projects remained at a low level. The planned issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds increased from 500 million yuan to 600 million yuan, and the number of terminated projects was the same as last month, both being 1. The proportion of the terminated scale of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average increased to 74% [37]. - The terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Hubei, mainly in district - county platforms [42]. 3.4 Research Conclusions and Suggestions - The approval of urban investment bonds in January showed the characteristics of a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low - level maintenance of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect the implementation of the current debt - resolution policy. Considering the debt - resolution situation in 2026, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period, with more diverse debt - resolution paths and more obvious differentiation in debt - resolution effects among regions. Local debt - resolution efforts will increase, and platform transformation will be promoted more deeply [6][48].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meetings emphasize the need to stabilize and promote effective investment in 2026, focusing on innovative policy measures and significant projects in key sectors to support economic growth [1][2]. Investment Tools - The State Council has outlined several investment tools for 2026, including central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy financial instruments, with a focus on enhancing their effectiveness [2][3]. Investment Scale and Trends - In 2025, China's fixed asset investment was 48.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year. The government aims to reverse this trend in 2026, with expectations for more investment stabilization policies to be implemented [1][3]. Major Projects Planning - The State Council plans to initiate significant projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries, aligning with long-term development needs and competitive advantages [1][7]. Role of State-Owned Enterprises and Private Investment - The government aims to leverage state-owned enterprises to expand investment and support private investment development, recognizing the importance of private sector confidence in driving overall investment [10][12]. Economic Growth Potential - Despite a decline in private investment by 6.4% in 2025, there remains substantial potential for growth in investment, particularly in infrastructure and technology sectors, as the government seeks to enhance the investment environment [12][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of promoting effective investment to stabilize economic growth and enhance development momentum [1][3] - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to innovate and improve policy measures, effectively utilizing central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, and local government special bonds [3] - The meeting also discussed the necessity of planning major projects in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries to support long-term development [3] Group 2 - The meeting approved the draft revision of the "Bidding and Tendering Law of the People's Republic of China," aiming to reform and improve the bidding system, eliminate hidden barriers, and enhance transparency [5] - The revision of the bidding law is seen as a response to the rapid development of the economy and the construction industry, ensuring it meets market demands and industry developments [5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to optimize government procurement orders and align the bidding law with related regulations to create a unified legal system for government procurement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting chaired by Li Qiang emphasizes the importance of promoting effective investment for stabilizing economic growth and enhancing development momentum [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - There is a call to innovate and improve policy measures to effectively utilize central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, and local government special bonds [1] - The focus is on long-term development needs and building future competitive advantages through the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2: Key Investment Areas - Major projects and significant engineering initiatives will be planned and promoted in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries [1] Group 3: Investment Support - The meeting highlights the need to better leverage the role of central state-owned enterprises in expanding investments and to increase support for private investment development [1] - A collaborative effort is encouraged to promote effective investment [1]

Fiscal Expenditure - In 2025, the national general public budget expenditure is projected to be 28.74 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1% [5] - Key areas of expenditure include social security and employment (up 6.7%), education (up 3.2%), health (up 5.7%), science and technology (up 4.8%), and energy conservation and environmental protection (up 6.1%) [5] Cultural Industry Revenue - In 2025, the revenue of large-scale cultural and related industry enterprises is expected to grow by 7.4%, reaching 1521.35 billion yuan, an increase of 104.51 billion yuan from the previous year [6][8] - The cultural core sector's revenue is projected to be 1031.81 billion yuan, up 11.5%, while related sectors are expected to see a slight decline of 0.4% [9] Investment and Economic Cooperation - In 2025, China's non-financial direct investment abroad is expected to reach 145.66 billion USD, a growth of 1.3% year-on-year [22] - The scale of foreign contracting projects is anticipated to increase, with a completed turnover of 178.82 billion USD, up 7.7%, and new contract amounts reaching 289.22 billion USD, up 8.2% [22] - Labor exports are projected to grow, with 428,000 workers sent abroad, an increase of 4.6% [22] Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [12] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, also down by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a decrease in market demand [16] - The comprehensive PMI output index stands at 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities [18]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...