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中信证券:预计“十五五”阶段我国政策导向仍然以财政货币双宽为主
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 01:53
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the resolution of local government hidden debts may be achieved by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan or the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, but local government leverage remains high, necessitating the central bank to maintain low interest rates in an uncertain revenue environment [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The focus of new policy financial tools will be on eight key areas: digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure in consumer sectors, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture and rural development, transportation and logistics, as well as municipal and industrial parks [1] - There is a high demand for incremental fiscal support, suggesting that the dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policies will continue in the future [1]
中信证券:预计“十五五”阶段,我国政策导向仍然财政货币双宽为主
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 01:24
Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the resolution of local government hidden debts may be achieved between the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," but local government leverage remains high, necessitating the central bank to maintain low interest rates in an uncertain revenue environment [1] Group 1: Local Government Debt and Leverage - Local government leverage remains high despite potential resolution of hidden debts [1] - The timeline for resolving local government hidden debts is projected for the transition between the "14th" and "15th" Five-Year Plans [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Focus - The central bank is expected to continue maintaining low interest rates due to uncertainties in revenue [1] - A new round of policy financial tools will focus on eight key areas: digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure in consumption sectors, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture and rural development, transportation and logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [1] - There remains a high incremental demand on the fiscal side, indicating that the dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policies is likely to continue [1]