报告要点： 专题报告 2025-09-23 新一轮预期博弈即将开启，黑色板块逐步具备多配性价比 2022 年至今，在黑色板块，市场讲的一直是同一个故事：在"弱现实"背景下讲政策"预期"。 今年四季度我们认为依旧存在这样的剧本，10 月中下旬的"四中全会"将对"十五五"做出规 划，这将是未来预期博弈的关键节点。 综合：1）客观上价格下跌的动能不断衰竭；2）美联储正式进入降息周期，后续海外进入财政、 货币双宽的局面相对确定，利好于全球需求扩张与大宗商品价格；3）我国具备丰富的去产能 经验，与"反内卷"相配套的需求侧政策仍然值得期待；4）站在周期的角度，黑色大概五年 一个周期，当下也临近这样一个关键的周期时间拐点等方面因素，我们认为虽然短期在现实需 求的影响下，黑色板块价格仍存在阶段性回调的风险，但中长期来看，黑色板块或逐渐具备多 配的性价比。后续需要重点关注的点在于是否能够出现新的需求引擎：若有，则预计后续钢铁 行业有望开启新一轮的上升周期；若尚没有，则预计价格或再度进入盘整，需要更长一段时间 的震荡筑底直至新的引擎出现。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755 ...

Focus Review - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a downward revision of long-term rate expectations for 2025-2028, suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy outlook [2] Equity Market - Recent market performance shows a divergence between stock market strength and weak economic data, with a few tech stocks driving index gains [3] - The market is expected to transition from extreme differentiation to a more balanced approach, focusing on strong industry trends and economic conditions [4] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains due to interest rate cut expectations and AI industry benefits, with the Hang Seng Index reaching its highest level since 2021 [5] Industry Research - The AI sector is accelerating, with domestic capabilities closing the gap with international standards, creating investment opportunities in emerging industries like solid-state batteries and embodied intelligence [6] - The Chinese AI chip market is projected to reach nearly $50 billion, with increasing domestic demand for local chips as international supply diminishes [8] - The Hong Kong tech sector, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is favored by investors due to its high sensitivity to interest rates and attractive valuation [8] Macro and Fixed Income - Morgan Asset Management suggests a higher probability of two additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which may lead to a weaker dollar and increased interest in non-US markets [9] - Future fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain accommodative, focusing on sectors like digital economy and green transition [10][11] Asset Allocation - Historical trends indicate that the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle is generally favorable for equity assets, particularly in the Hong Kong market, with growth styles expected to lead [12]

人民财讯9月20日电，中信证券研报表示，展望后续，地方政府隐债化解可能在"十四五"末期到"十五 五"初期达成，但地方政府杠杆率仍高，在收入端不确定性较大的环境下，预计央行仍有必要维持利率 的低位。往后看，新一轮政策性金融工具聚焦数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域基础设施、绿 色低碳转型、农业农村、交通和物流以及市政和产业园区八大领域，对于财政端增量需求仍高，预计未 来财政货币双宽的格局仍会延续。 ...

中信证券明明等报告称，展望后续，地方政府隐债化解可能在"十四五"末期到"十五五"初期达成，但地 方政府杠杆率仍高，在收入端不确定性较大的环境下，预计央行仍有必要维持利率的低位。往后看，新 一轮政策性金融工具聚焦数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域基础设施、绿色低碳转型、农业农 村、交通和物流以及市政和产业园区八大领域，对于财政端增量需求仍高，预计未来财政货币双宽的格 局仍会延续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and management strategies of the Southern Haoda Steady Preferred One-Year Holding Mixed Fund of Funds (FOF) for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its investment objectives, financial indicators, and market conditions affecting its performance [1][2][3]. Fund Overview - The fund is a mixed fund of funds (FOF) aiming for long-term stable appreciation of assets through diversified asset allocation across various funds with different risk-return characteristics [1][2]. - The fund's performance benchmark is set at 15% of the CSI 300 Index return and 85% of the Shanghai Government Bond Index return [1]. Financial Indicators and Fund Performance - As of the end of the reporting period, the A share net value was 1.0460 RMB, with a net value growth rate of 1.38%, while the C share net value was 1.0372 RMB, with a growth rate of 1.28% [5]. - The fund's performance over the past three months showed a net value growth rate of 1.27% for both A and C shares, with a standard deviation of 0.11% and 0.14% respectively [2][5]. Management Report - The fund manager has adhered to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring compliance and risk control while managing the fund's assets [4][6]. - The macroeconomic environment in the second quarter was stable, with improvements in PMI and a low inflation rate, while the U.S. economy showed signs of slowing down [4][3]. Investment Strategy - The fund adopted a multi-asset and multi-strategy diversification approach, focusing on domestic assets while also allocating to overseas assets and commodities [3][4]. - In equity investments, the fund increased exposure to large-cap value stocks and reduced holdings in high-growth technology stocks during market fluctuations [3]. Future Outlook - The fund maintains a cautious short-term outlook while remaining optimistic in the medium to long term, anticipating potential government stimulus measures and a stable economic recovery [4][3].

Group 1 - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to address external uncertainties and stabilize economic growth [1][2] - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to be strengthened, with measures such as accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds and potential interest rate cuts [2] - The focus on service consumption as a new direction for economic growth highlights the potential in sectors like elderly care, healthcare, tourism, and dining, which could significantly boost economic activity and employment [3] Group 2 - The meeting indicates a commitment to supporting the real economy and technological innovation, aiming to cultivate new industries and enhance competitiveness [4] - Capital markets are expected to play a crucial role in financing technology-driven enterprises, particularly in strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [4] - The urgency for counter-cyclical adjustments is underscored by increasing external trade frictions and global economic recession risks, suggesting a potential for rapid policy implementation in the coming months [4]