Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7][93]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts on crude oil prices, which have been rising significantly, affecting the chemical sector [2][89]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector saw a decline of 2.49% in the fourth week of June, lagging behind the Shanghai A-share index by 1.98 percentage points [3][15]. - Key stocks that performed well included Keheng Co. (+30.3%) and Jinniu Chemical (+27.43%), while stocks like Jiaao Environmental and Hongyang New Materials faced significant declines [3][15]. Industry Performance - In the fourth week of June, five sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced gains, with the top performers being oil trading (+7.24%) and inorganic salts (+4.2%). Conversely, 26 sub-industries saw declines, with daily chemical products dropping by 8.92% [4][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector was reported at 24.02 times, which is lower than the average PE of 11.88 times since 2015 [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report noted significant price increases for several products, with Brent crude oil rising by 13.68% and PX by 10.53%. In contrast, liquid chlorine saw a drastic drop of 60% [5][23]. - The report also highlighted substantial changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by 54.61% and the PX (naphtha-based) spread decreasing by 144.12% [5][39]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes included a decrease in polyester chips by 19.44% and an increase in epoxy propane by 16.49% [6][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading compound fertilizer companies, specifically recommending Xinyangfeng [6].

Group 1 - The oil sector experienced a strong rally on June 19, with notable stocks such as Shouhua Gas hitting a 20% limit up, Keli Co. rising over 13%, and Junyou Co. also reaching a limit up, indicating significant investor interest and market movement [1] - As of June 17, both Iran and Israel have targeted each other's energy facilities, leading to production halts at major sites, including the South Pars gas field, which could impact global energy supply [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with oil prices experiencing significant fluctuations due to recent events [2] - Iran's withdrawal from nuclear negotiations may lead to increased sanctions on its oil production and sales, with current production at approximately 3.3 million barrels per day and exports around 1.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 4% of global seaborne oil exports [2] - The risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz persists, which is crucial for global trade, with about 11% of maritime trade passing through it, including 34% of seaborne oil exports, indicating potential severe impacts on global oil trade if tensions escalate [2] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to support a bullish outlook for oil prices in the short term, while the long-term view remains optimistic for major oil companies and oil service sectors due to ongoing supply-demand dynamics [2]