行业重要动态 硫酸行业保供稳价，助力保障国家粮食安全。据中化新网，12月18日，中国硫酸工业协会联合中国磷复 肥工业协会召开专题会议，聚焦硫酸与磷复肥行业保供稳价工作，明确多项调控措施，以保障春耕前化 肥供应稳定及价格平稳，夯实国家粮食安全的农资保障基础。据中国磷复肥工业协会，磷肥作为粮食 的"粮食"，其供应稳定性直接关乎国家粮食安全大局与农民种粮积极性。当前，国际硫磺供应持续紧 张，直接推高全球硫资源价格，导致磷肥生产原料成本大幅激增。硫酸作为磷肥生产的核心原料，近期 价格波动不断加剧，给磷肥企业正常生产经营带来显著压力。会议提出三项举措，包括硫酸供应向磷肥 生产倾斜、推进建立长期稳定购销关系、合理确定硫酸价格，旨在严格落实"国内优先"供应原则，全力 保障春耕用肥原料需求。据钢联数据，截至12月19日，硫酸（98%冶炼酸，山东）市场价为865元/吨， 12月以来涨幅为8.81%，本年涨幅高达162.12%。隆众资讯预计，在"保供稳价"政策的引导下，后续硫 酸市场将逐步降温，部分区域或出现回调可能。 上海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：过去一周（12.13-12.19），基础化工指数涨跌幅为2.58%，沪深 3 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the chemical industry, with profit declines slowing down and demand gradually rebounding, particularly in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [22][23] - The AI application in various industries is accelerating, with significant advancements in hardware and software, leading to a reshaping of the global landscape [24][25] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with rising costs impacting profit margins, yet there are emerging opportunities in niche markets like snacks and soft drinks [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index trading at average P/E ratios above their three-year median, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13][15] - The coal and non-ferrous metals sectors are leading the market, while sectors like internet services and software development are underperforming [9][13] Industry Analysis - The electric power and public utilities sector is rated "stronger than the market," with a focus on stable returns and shareholder value, particularly in large hydropower companies and high-dividend coal enterprises [20] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and price stability, but there is potential for recovery as the market undergoes structural adjustments [30][33] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets like banks and utilities for defensive positioning, while also considering growth opportunities in technology and AI sectors [12][24] - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies in the chemical sector that are well-positioned to benefit from supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes [22][23]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,897.71 | | -0.42 | | 深证成指 | | | 13,056.70 | -0.68 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,554.33 | | -0.48 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,425.70 | | -0.54 | | 中证 | 500 | 7, ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in various industries, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from supply and demand dynamics [6][14][16] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and applications, particularly in China [16][17] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to improved demand and reduced investment pressures [13][14] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, reflecting a 0.65% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.95 and 48.16, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Strategies - The chemical industry is entering a phase of improved stability, with a focus on supply-side constraints and demand recovery, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand and government support, with a focus on integrated circuits and software [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with declining revenue growth, but opportunities exist in the snack and beverage markets, which are expected to grow significantly [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in the AI and semiconductor industries [15][16] - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their growth potential in the snack and soft drink markets [21] Key Data Updates - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $69.47 billion, a 25.1% year-on-year increase [36] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization of the competitive landscape [25][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the organic silicon industry, highlighting its potential benefits from the chemical sector's internal competition [4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 7.47% in the third week of November, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.58 percentage points [13]. - The only sub-industry that saw an increase was petroleum processing, which rose by 2.64%, while 31 sub-industries declined, with the largest drop in acrylic fiber at -15.33% [17]. - Key products with significant price increases included dimethyl carbonate (+12.32%) and thionyl chloride (+11.39%), while liquid chlorine saw the largest decrease at -6.25% [22][3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that benefit from the chemical sector's internal competition, such as Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 23.78, significantly higher than the average PE of 5.33 since 2015 [13]. - The total number of stocks in the industry is 446, with a total market value of 7114.2 billion and a circulating market value of 6648.5 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases and decreases, indicating significant volatility in the market [22][3]. - The price spread for propylene (methanol-based) increased by 296.55%, while the PTA spread decreased by 157.04% [42][46]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in stocks of chlorpyrifos (-12.5%) and propylene oxide (-11.83%), while polyester filament saw an increase of 10.21% [66].

Group 1 - Duopule plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 1%, amounting to a maximum of 619,000 shares [1] - Lideman intends to acquire 70% of Xiansheng Xiangrui for 1.733 billion yuan, focusing on tuberculosis screening and diagnosis [2] - Huahuan Group is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [3] Group 2 - Dongbai Group clarifies it does not engage in duty-free business, maintaining normal operations [4][5] - Changsheng Bearing's actual controller plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.99%, equating to 5.94 million shares [6][7] - Jidian plans to invest 5.698 billion yuan in the Baicheng Phase II coal power project, a key initiative under the national "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][10] Group 3 - Baoneng New Energy reports completion of land-based works for the expansion of the Lufeng Qiaohai Bay Power Plant [11][12] - Changshu Bank proposes to appoint Lu Dingchang as the new president and chief compliance officer [13][14] - Kangqiang Electronics plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 1%, totaling up to 3.7526 million shares [14] Group 4 - Jilin Chemical Fiber intends to reduce its holdings by up to 2%, equating to 49.1774 million shares [15][16] - CanSino's inhaled tuberculosis vaccine has commenced Phase I clinical trials in Indonesia [17][18] - ST Dongyi's stock has been suspended for review due to significant price fluctuations [19] Group 5 - ST Yatai plans to reduce its holdings by up to 1.98%, totaling 6.4 million shares [20] - Huaren Pharmaceutical intends to reduce its holdings by up to 3%, equating to 35.4663 million shares [21] - Jianglong Shipbuilding's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2%, amounting to 7.5534 million shares [22] Group 6 - Borui Pharmaceutical's BGM1812 injection has received approval for clinical trials targeting overweight or obesity [23][24] - ST Zhongzhu announces the transfer of 10.38% of its shares, totaling approximately 403 million yuan [25][26] - Shenzhou Digital plans to establish an employee stock ownership plan with a maximum fundraising of 360 million yuan [27][28] Group 7 - Kaichuang Electric plans to establish a joint research center with Tsinghua University, focusing on embodied intelligence [29] - Daming City intends to acquire 19.43% of Baicaibang for 694 million yuan, specializing in communication solutions [29]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Chemical Fiber, established in 1992 and listed in 1996, is a significant player in the domestic viscose fiber industry, focusing on the production of viscose filament and staple fiber, with certain technological advantages [1] Group 1: Business Performance - For Q3 2025, Nanjing Chemical Fiber reported revenue of 164 million, ranking 4th in the industry, with the industry leader, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, generating 5.74 billion [2] - The company's main business composition includes viscose fiber business at 51.62 million (40.83%), other businesses at 29.33 million (23.20%), PET structural core materials at 27.25 million (21.55%), landscape water business at 18.20 million (14.40%), and Lyocell fiber business at 0.026 million (0.02%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was -57.50 million, also ranking 4th in the industry, with the industry leader reporting a net profit of 133 million [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Nanjing Chemical Fiber's debt-to-asset ratio was 71.26%, up from 59.18% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average of 57.43% [3] - The gross profit margin for the period was -25.95%, a decline from -7.65% year-on-year, and below the industry average of 4.31% [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - The chairman, Chen Jianjun, received a salary of 742,400, an increase of 173,200 from the previous year [4] - The general manager, Chen Congming, earned 728,200, up by 183,400 from the previous year [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 15.02% to 36,100, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per account increased by 17.68% to 10,100 [5] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the ninth largest, holding 1.87 million shares as a new shareholder [5]

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The company focuses on its core business and implements a "sales-driven production, efficiency-driven sales" strategy to enhance operational performance [2] - Continuous investment in R&D is emphasized to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies and product upgrades [2] - The company aims to optimize market layout, deepen existing markets, and actively explore emerging fields to increase customer loyalty and market share [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic PVC market shows strong bottom support, with rising prices for coal tar and calcium carbide, while demand is improving due to seasonal factors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to persist, and if the old capacity elimination policy in the petrochemical industry is implemented, it may lead to a supply contraction in PVC, positively impacting prices [3] - In the viscose market, cautious procurement by downstream enterprises has led to a decline in prices, but a slight improvement in demand is expected to stabilize prices in the coming months [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry showed a slight increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and net profit of 756 billion yuan, a growth of 2.0% [1][12] - The overall gross profit margin for the industry decreased to 13.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.0%, also down 0.1 percentage points [1][12] - The chemical product price index (CCPI) experienced a decline of 4.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting weak support from raw materials and excess production capacity [1][40] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the industry achieved a revenue of 588.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0% [2] - The operating profit for Q2 2025 was 48.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year but an increase of 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.2 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Construction and Fixed Assets - The growth rate of construction in progress for the basic chemical industry showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% in Q2 2025 [3] - Fixed asset scale increased, with total fixed assets reaching 14,222 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable demand and marginal supply changes, such as MDI, amino acids, and fertilizers [4] - Specific companies recommended include Jinhe Industrial for sucralose, Yangnong Chemical for pesticides, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [4] R&D and Financial Metrics - The average R&D expenditure for companies in the industry was notably high in sectors like polyurethane and fluorine chemicals, with R&D rates exceeding 4.5% in certain sub-industries [12][20] - The overall financial metrics indicate a mixed performance across various sub-industries, with some showing significant growth while others faced declines [35][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7][93]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts on crude oil prices, which have been rising significantly, affecting the chemical sector [2][89]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector saw a decline of 2.49% in the fourth week of June, lagging behind the Shanghai A-share index by 1.98 percentage points [3][15]. - Key stocks that performed well included Keheng Co. (+30.3%) and Jinniu Chemical (+27.43%), while stocks like Jiaao Environmental and Hongyang New Materials faced significant declines [3][15]. Industry Performance - In the fourth week of June, five sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced gains, with the top performers being oil trading (+7.24%) and inorganic salts (+4.2%). Conversely, 26 sub-industries saw declines, with daily chemical products dropping by 8.92% [4][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector was reported at 24.02 times, which is lower than the average PE of 11.88 times since 2015 [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report noted significant price increases for several products, with Brent crude oil rising by 13.68% and PX by 10.53%. In contrast, liquid chlorine saw a drastic drop of 60% [5][23]. - The report also highlighted substantial changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by 54.61% and the PX (naphtha-based) spread decreasing by 144.12% [5][39]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes included a decrease in polyester chips by 19.44% and an increase in epoxy propane by 16.49% [6][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading compound fertilizer companies, specifically recommending Xinyangfeng [6].