1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices mostly declined. The main contract EC2604 closed down 3.06%, and the far - month contracts declined between - 3% and - 1%. The combination of commodity sentiment and improved geopolitical situation pushed the freight rates down [2]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1792.14, down 67.17 points from last week, a 3.6% week - on - week decline. The cancellation of full - tax rebates for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase brought by the news fades, and the futures price drops due to weakened spot support [2]. - China's foreign trade in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with both imports and exports improving significantly, possibly related to the cancellation of value - added tax export rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. It is expected that China's exports will maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026 [2]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's freight rates for weeks 7 - 9 decreased by $100 compared to week 6, but other shipping companies such as COSCO and CMA continued to lower their quotes, and the trend of pre - holiday price cuts to attract cargo continued [2]. - Geopolitically, Trump said that the US "expects" to reach an agreement with Iran and end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of resuming shipping in the Red Sea has improved. The market is optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone, and inflation is approaching the target level, supporting the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [2]. - Currently, the freight rate market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 1184.600, down 37.4; EC second - main contract closing price was 1513.1, down 40.70 [2]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread was - 328.50, down 12.70; EC2604 - EC2608 spread was - 423.30, down 43.30 [2]. - EC contract basis was 607.54, down 24.77 [2]. - EC main contract open interest was 33806 hands, down 2075 [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) was 1792.14, down 67.17; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1316.75; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1101.40, down 141.11; container ship capacity was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), up 0.00 [2]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1175.59, down 33.16; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1574.69, down 13.50 [2]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2148.00, down 146.00; Panama - type freight index (daily) was 1743.00, down 27.00 [2]. - Average charter price for Panama - type ships was 0.00, up 0.00; average charter price for Cape - type ships was $23,300.00, down $964.00 [2]. 3.3 Industry News - US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition from some senators [2]. - Trump said that the US has a good relationship with Venezuela, and the two sides will "share" oil revenues. He also mentioned potential negotiations with Cuba, Greenland, and Iran [2]. - China and the UK signed four economic and trade achievement documents, further deepening economic and trade relations in three aspects: "Export to China" cooperation, feasibility study on a service trade agreement, and strengthening the work of the China - UK Joint Economic and Trade Commission [2]. 3.4 Key Points to Watch - France's January CPI monthly rate preliminary value on February 3 at 15:45 [2]. - US December JOLTs job openings (in ten thousand people) on February 3 at 23:00 [2].

Economic Indicators - The U.S. July core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, ending a five-month streak of underperformance against expectations, but did not exceed forecasts, leading to heightened interest in rate cuts[1] - The July PPI surged by 0.95%, significantly surpassing the expected 0.2%, indicating ongoing tariff impacts on wholesale prices[1] - Retail sales in July rose by 0.5%, slightly below the expected 0.6%, but showed resilience with a revision from a previous increase of 0.6% to 0.9%[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Current market pricing suggests an 84.5% probability of a rate cut in September, with an expectation of 2.187 cuts throughout the year, which may be overly optimistic[2] - In a more optimistic scenario, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, in September and December; in a pessimistic scenario, only once in October[2] - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 are projected to be 4, 5, or 6 times under pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios, respectively[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 4.316%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.2 basis points to 3.751%[1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.94% and 0.81%, respectively, while gold prices dropped by 1.81% to $3,336 per ounce[1] Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict was positively received, potentially easing geopolitical tensions and improving market risk appetite[2] - The lack of new sanctions from Trump post-meeting may alleviate some tariff-related risks, contributing to a more favorable market outlook[2] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in gold prices on May 12, with international spot gold falling below $3300 per ounce and reaching a low of $3207 per ounce, reflecting a notable daily decline [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as evidenced by the calming signals from the India-Pakistan conflict and renewed negotiation proposals from Russia regarding Ukraine [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a growing anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and subsequently lower its demand [4] Group 3 - Technical selling pressure has intensified, with a significant reduction in net long positions in gold and a high percentage of programmatic selling contributing to the price drop [5] Group 4 - Domestic consumption demand for gold has weakened post the May Day holiday, with reduced market demand and some brands resorting to discount promotions to accelerate inventory turnover, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [7] Group 5 - The combined effects of geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, technical selling, and domestic demand fluctuations have collectively contributed to the sharp decline in gold prices on May 12 [9]