你最近打开股票软件时，是否也被满屏的绿色刺痛了双眼？就在上周五，日本股市上演"黑色星期五"，日经指数单日暴跌超过3%，失守17000点大关。令人 惊讶的是，这并非个案——亚洲其他市场同样哀鸿遍野。究竟是什么让全球投资者如此恐慌？这场资本"大逃亡"背后隐藏着怎样的危机预警？ 日经指数惊险一跳：不只是日本的麻烦 4月9日，东京股市迎来了"黑色星期五"。日经225指数开盘即暴跌近500点，最终收盘大跌3.93%，创下年内单日最大跌幅。仔细观察盘面，这场暴跌呈现出 三个关键特征： 首先，半导体板块成为重灾区。东京电子等芯片巨头领跌市场，股价一度下挫近8%。这直接源于台积电下调2024年半导体增长预期的连锁反应，反映出全 球科技产业链的寒意正在蔓延。 其次，避险情绪主导市场。有色金属、保险业、矿业等周期板块跌幅居前，说明投资者正在抛售风险资产。更值得注意的是，当日东京交易所33个行业板块 全军覆没，这种全面溃败在近年实属罕见。 最后，汇率波动放大跌幅。美元兑日元汇率跌破144关口，强势日元进一步压制了出口型企业的股价表现。这种股汇双杀的局面，恰是市场恐慌情绪最直观 的写照。 亚洲市场集体沦陷：避险情绪正在全球蔓延 东京 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨江佩霞 当地时间11月18日，美股三大指数集体下跌，道指下跌超500点，跌幅约1.2%。 截至18日收盘，标普500指数11月至今下跌超2%，该指数此前已连续6个月上涨；标普500指数较历史高点回落超3%，科技权重更高的纳指较 纪录高点回落超5%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 标普500 | | --- | --- | | 46590.24 | 22708.07 6672.41 | | -557.24 -1.18% -192.52 -0.84% -61.70 -0.92% | | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 标普500期货 | | 7760.02 24905.50 6697.25 | | | -95.20 -1.21% -188.50 -0.75% -58.00 -0.86% | | 大型科技股多数下跌 ，美光科技跌近2%，英伟达、苹果跌超1.8%， Meta跌1.2%，特斯拉涨1.1%。 谷歌成为为数不多的亮点，该股开盘一度涨6%，创下历史新高，收盘时涨幅收窄为略超3%。据财联社报道，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季 度建仓该股。 热门中概股多数下跌， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.21% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in the US stock market is supported by fundamental improvements, driven by three key factors: earnings expectations revision, a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and a reduction in geopolitical and policy risks [1][10][12] Group 2 - Earnings expectations have significantly improved, with the breadth of earnings revisions rising from a low of -25% in mid-April to -5%, indicating a strong recovery in corporate earnings outlook [3][5] - Historical data suggests that similar V-shaped recoveries in earnings revisions often lead to strong market returns over the following 12 months [5] - The preference for large-cap quality stocks, represented by the "Magnificent Seven," continues to lead in earnings revisions and stock performance, while small-cap stocks lag behind historical highs [7][14] Group 3 - The market is increasingly pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Morgan Stanley predicting up to seven rate cuts by the end of next year, which could support stock valuations in the second half of this year [10][11] - Employment market data will be a key trigger for the Fed's policy shift, with significant private sector job growth below expectations potentially prompting earlier rate cuts [11] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks have eased, with oil prices dropping 14% since June 19, reducing inflationary pressures and potential threats to the business cycle [13] - The removal of concerns regarding the "capital tax" clause from the "Big Beautiful" plan alleviates risks related to foreign direct investment in the US [13] Group 5 - The current stock risk premium is at a 20-year low, while earnings risk is at a 20-year high, indicating a notable contradiction that warrants attention [14] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic, with AI-driven productivity improvements expected to contribute an additional 30 basis points to S&P 500 net profit margins by 2025-2026, expanding to 50 basis points by 2027 [16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in gold prices on May 12, with international spot gold falling below $3300 per ounce and reaching a low of $3207 per ounce, reflecting a notable daily decline [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as evidenced by the calming signals from the India-Pakistan conflict and renewed negotiation proposals from Russia regarding Ukraine [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a growing anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and subsequently lower its demand [4] Group 3 - Technical selling pressure has intensified, with a significant reduction in net long positions in gold and a high percentage of programmatic selling contributing to the price drop [5] Group 4 - Domestic consumption demand for gold has weakened post the May Day holiday, with reduced market demand and some brands resorting to discount promotions to accelerate inventory turnover, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [7] Group 5 - The combined effects of geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, technical selling, and domestic demand fluctuations have collectively contributed to the sharp decline in gold prices on May 12 [9]