2026年1月，一条全新的数字在全球交易系统中悄然浮现，并迅速引起了广泛的关注——18%。这并非 是常规的税率调整，而是一把已经收回刀鞘、却依然寒光闪烁的锋利利刃。特朗普重新执掌白宫后，迅 速在自己的社交平台上高调宣布了一项重要的经贸协议：美印之间的贸易关税将由先前的50%暴降至 18%。这不仅是一份改变规则的协议，更是一场影响深远的政治博弈。 随着印度的退出，俄罗斯则加速向中国抛出巨额折扣的原油大单，试图填补这道巨大的空缺。据路透社 的报道，2026年2月，俄罗斯面向中国的原油出口折扣幅度创下历史新高。俄罗斯此举显然是为了刺激 全球最大原油买家——中国的采购兴趣，并希望通过这一举动填补印度撤出后留下的市场空白。 然而，这份协议背后，却有着一个不言而喻、但从未明确写入文书的交换条件：印度必须全面停止从俄 罗斯采购原油。这时，滞留在公海上的俄罗斯油轮与全球交易市场上的汇率曲线，仿佛组成了一幅极具 张力的画面，见证着一个新的地缘政治格局悄然成形。俄罗斯的船员或许还不知晓，新德里的高层已在 暗中完成了与美国的利益清算，他们承载的原油和这份贸易协议一同被划为历史的负担，被迫退出能源 合作的舞台。 回望去年6月，印度从 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing fluctuations around $3347.17 per ounce, indicating a fierce battle between bullish and bearish forces [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with prices rebounding from a low of $3324 [3] - The price of gold has established strong support around $3320, attracting significant buying interest during dips, while the $3340-$3350 range has become a focal point for market contention [3] Group 2 - Short-term fluctuations in the gold market are expected to be driven by the Russia-Ukraine situation and developments in US-EU trade negotiations [4] - Mid-term influences on gold prices will include the currency competition between the US dollar and the euro, as well as the evolution of the Middle East nuclear crisis [4] - Long-term factors such as the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [4]