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特朗普各种施压鲍威尔降息,会对美联储独立性及资本市场带来什么影响?
清华金融评论· 2025-07-25 09:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure exerted by President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the implications for the Fed's independence and the capital markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Visit and Pressure on the Fed - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve is the first by a sitting president in nearly 20 years, aimed at pressuring Chairman Powell to lower interest rates [3]. - Trump suggested that reducing rates by three percentage points could save the U.S. over $1 trillion [3]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points in 2026, up from an earlier expectation of 25 basis points [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Powell - Congressman Luna has accused Powell of perjury regarding the $25 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters, claiming he misrepresented the project's luxury features and budget adjustments [6]. - The allegations come amid ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies, aiming to undermine Powell's authority and potentially set the stage for his removal [6][9]. - Powell has denied the allegations and initiated an internal review of the renovation project to restore public trust [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-term Risks - Short-term market reactions show a rise in stock indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a focus on corporate earnings rather than political turmoil [7]. - The bond market reflects increased risk aversion, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by approximately 6 basis points [7]. - Long-term risks include challenges to the Fed's independence, which could lead to inflation expectations becoming unanchored and damage the credibility of the U.S. dollar [7][10]. Group 4: Legal and Internal Factors - Legally, removing the Fed Chairman requires "just cause," and if the perjury allegations are not substantiated, it may be difficult to remove Powell [9]. - Internal opposition exists, with moderate figures like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin opposing the removal, citing the current economic stability [9]. Group 5: Conclusion and Investor Guidance - The situation is characterized as a political struggle using moral issues, with limited short-term market impact but potential long-term systemic risks due to the erosion of the Fed's independence [10]. - Investors are advised to monitor the judicial investigation and Trump's policy direction, prioritizing assets that can withstand volatility, such as gold and short-term Treasuries, while being cautious of long-term credit risks associated with dollar assets [10].
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250707
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 09:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market has intensified long - short games, with short - term dives in Shanghai gold and silver. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the rate - cut expectation is likely to be postponed to after September, causing short - term upward resistance for gold prices. Gold may face short - term correction pressure, and if trade negotiations progress smoothly, gold prices may continue to be under pressure. In the long - term, factors like the continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit support gold prices, but it may mainly fluctuate within a range. Silver is expected to remain firm due to a tight supply - demand structure and the restoration of its industrial attributes [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 771.3 yuan/gram, down 5.76; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8872 yuan/kilogram, down 47. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 175,760 hands, up 720; those of Shanghai silver are 229,481 hands, down 21,237. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 141,279 hands, down 1,840; those of Shanghai silver are 85,369 hands, down 2,361. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 21,456 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,330,695 kilograms, down 9,051 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 767.8 yuan/gram, down 3.2; the silver spot price is 8912 yuan/kilogram, up 15. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.5 yuan/gram, up 2.56; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 40 yuan/kilogram, up 62 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 14,868.74 tons, up 22.62. The CFTC non - commercial net positions of gold are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227. The quarterly total supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the annual global total demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.01%, down 0.37; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.53%, up 0.08. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.01%, up 0.23; that of at - the - money put options is 21.01%, up 0.24 [3] 3.5 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiations are at a dead - end in the final stage, with a busy 72 - hour period ahead. The deadline of August 1 is set, and if no agreement is reached, tariffs will return to the April level. Elon Musk founded the "American Party" on July 5, having a disagreement with Trump over the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill. Trump signed the bill, terminating clean - energy tax credits and favoring traditional energy. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and in September is 30.6% [3]
秦氏金升:5.27川普变脸引发黄金抛售,伦敦金走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 08:29
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].
黄金亚盘高位盘整微跌,市场短线考虑追空布局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 04:23
Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing fluctuations around $3347.17 per ounce, indicating a fierce battle between bullish and bearish forces [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with prices rebounding from a low of $3324 [3] - The price of gold has established strong support around $3320, attracting significant buying interest during dips, while the $3340-$3350 range has become a focal point for market contention [3] Group 2 - Short-term fluctuations in the gold market are expected to be driven by the Russia-Ukraine situation and developments in US-EU trade negotiations [4] - Mid-term influences on gold prices will include the currency competition between the US dollar and the euro, as well as the evolution of the Middle East nuclear crisis [4] - Long-term factors such as the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [4]
张尧浠:特朗普税改法案险过、金价短线回撤仍有反弹
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 00:41
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the passage of Trump's tax reform in the House, which has reduced risk aversion and strengthened the dollar, leading to downward pressure on gold prices. However, the overall outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and potential economic concerns stemming from increased U.S. debt [3][5][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On May 22, gold prices opened at $3315.12 per ounce, peaked at $3345.08, and then fell to a low of $3279.40, closing at $3294.53, marking a daily decline of $20.59 or 0.62% [1][3]. - The market is currently experiencing a lack of strong bearish pressure, suggesting that gold may continue to perform well in the short term, with a focus on the $3500 level as a potential resistance point [1][5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The successful passage of Trump's tax reform is expected to increase U.S. government debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion, raising concerns about the fiscal health of the U.S. and potentially weakening the dollar [7][8]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions remain, with the potential for renewed concerns as the 90-day tariff pause approaches its end without a new agreement, which could further support gold prices [7][8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong bullish trend for gold, with prices remaining above the May moving average and showing potential for further gains [10][12]. - Weekly charts also reflect a rebound, with gold prices returning above the 5-week moving average, suggesting a bullish momentum that could target $3400 and $3500 [12][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook for gold, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [8][10]. - The potential for a shift in monetary policy, depending on trade developments, could further influence gold prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts if tariffs are reduced [8][10].