（文章来源：经济日报） "不谋万世者，不足谋一时。"因城施策布局城市产业，既要立足自身特色，也要具有长远眼光。用中长 期规划指导经济社会发展，是我们党治国理政的一条重要经验。习近平同志主持编制厦门15年战略规 划，以前瞻性的战略眼光指明厦门可持续发展之路。这启示我们，城市产业的发展，绝非仅仅是短期的 经济手段，而是具有深远影响的战略布局。产业发展需要长期定位，不仅要考虑到当前产业现状，还要 预测未来发展趋势，确保在激烈的竞争中保持自身独特优势。 城市不仅是经济发展的重要载体，更是人民幸福生活的家园。城市的特色发展，应建立在满足群众民生 需求之上，各地应着力补齐生活性服务业短板。以健康、养老、教育、家政等为代表的生活性服务业经 营主体众多，与老百姓日常生活息息相关。作为直接服务居民的行业，生活性服务业还是承载就业的重 要组成部分。一方面，只有解决好百姓的操心事、烦心事、揪心事，才能不断增强城市居民的获得感、 幸福感、安全感。另一方面，推动生活性服务业发展，也有利于充分释放就业潜力，有效扩大内需，更 好激发城市内生动力和发展活力。 实现城市发展"各美其美、美美与共"，还应具有协同意识，注重构建城市协调发展新格局。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses potential cities for significant housing price increases in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for caution in predictions due to various influencing factors [1] City-Specific Analysis - **Shanghai**: The recent land auction in Yangpu District saw a premium rate of 26.3%, with floor prices exceeding 80,000 yuan per square meter, leading to expected new home prices above 120,000 yuan per square meter. The supply of new homes in 2025 is projected to be only 70% of 2024 levels, creating upward pressure on prices due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] - **Chengdu**: The city has seen a significant increase in housing transactions, with new home sales reaching 105,000 units in Q4 2024 and a 32.9% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions in Q1 2025. Policy changes, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and a reduction in down payment requirements, are expected to boost market liquidity [4][5] - **Nanjing**: The city recorded a 0.6% month-on-month increase in new home prices in December 2024, leading the nation in price growth. The land auction in early 2024 had a premium rate of 31.68%, indicating strong developer interest [5][6] - **Hangzhou**: The city led the nation in land auction revenue in Q1 2025, with premium rates between 20%-40% in certain districts. The influx of high-income individuals due to industrial upgrades is driving housing demand [6][7] - **Wuhan**: The city plans to advance urban renewal projects, with significant population growth in key industries. Although there is inventory pressure in suburban areas, core district prices are stabilizing [7] General Market Trends - The article notes that while some cities may see price increases, the notion of prices doubling is exaggerated. Core areas in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are expected to see price increases of 5%-8%, while strong second-tier cities like Chengdu and Nanjing may see increases of 10%-15% [8][9] - The article highlights the risk of price declines in the second-hand housing market, with a 0.69% month-on-month drop in April 2025 across 100 cities, and significant declines in third- and fourth-tier cities [9][10] - Overall, cities with strong policy support, population inflow, and solid industrial foundations are likely to experience significant price increases in the latter half of 2025 [10]