五载光阴，未来的房价几何？其实，答案早已蕴藏在当下的政策导向、人口流变以及供需格局之中。 房地产市场早已告别了普涨普跌的粗放时代，同样的200万元房产，五年后的价值可能已然悬殊数十万乃至上百万元。而人口流动、政策倾斜和经济周期这 三大宏观趋势，早已将这未来的图景描绘得清晰可见。 人口迁徙：硬指标下的冷暖分化 首先，我们必须审视人口流动这一硬性指标。以长三角为例，今年春运期间，仅仅32天的时间里，铁路运输就输送了高达8500万人次，日均客流高达265万 人，相较去年同期增长了5%。这背后，是持续的人口虹吸效应，上海、杭州等核心都市圈的人口依然保持着净流入的态下。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，一些三四线城市，每年的人口流失率已然超过1%。人口的去留，直接决定着住房需求的强弱。试想，一套200万元的房产，如果坐 落于人口持续涌入的城市，例如苏州工业园区，亦或是上海的五大新城，那么五年后，其价值大概率能够得以保全，甚至实现小幅度的上涨。然而，若该房 产位于人口不断外流的内陆小城，比如东北地区的某些资源型城市，那么五年后，能够以160万元的价格脱手，已属万幸。 不妨从租金回报率这个侧面一窥端倪。在深圳这样的人口密集型城市，租 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses potential cities for significant housing price increases in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for caution in predictions due to various influencing factors [1] City-Specific Analysis - **Shanghai**: The recent land auction in Yangpu District saw a premium rate of 26.3%, with floor prices exceeding 80,000 yuan per square meter, leading to expected new home prices above 120,000 yuan per square meter. The supply of new homes in 2025 is projected to be only 70% of 2024 levels, creating upward pressure on prices due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] - **Chengdu**: The city has seen a significant increase in housing transactions, with new home sales reaching 105,000 units in Q4 2024 and a 32.9% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions in Q1 2025. Policy changes, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and a reduction in down payment requirements, are expected to boost market liquidity [4][5] - **Nanjing**: The city recorded a 0.6% month-on-month increase in new home prices in December 2024, leading the nation in price growth. The land auction in early 2024 had a premium rate of 31.68%, indicating strong developer interest [5][6] - **Hangzhou**: The city led the nation in land auction revenue in Q1 2025, with premium rates between 20%-40% in certain districts. The influx of high-income individuals due to industrial upgrades is driving housing demand [6][7] - **Wuhan**: The city plans to advance urban renewal projects, with significant population growth in key industries. Although there is inventory pressure in suburban areas, core district prices are stabilizing [7] General Market Trends - The article notes that while some cities may see price increases, the notion of prices doubling is exaggerated. Core areas in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are expected to see price increases of 5%-8%, while strong second-tier cities like Chengdu and Nanjing may see increases of 10%-15% [8][9] - The article highlights the risk of price declines in the second-hand housing market, with a 0.69% month-on-month drop in April 2025 across 100 cities, and significant declines in third- and fourth-tier cities [9][10] - Overall, cities with strong policy support, population inflow, and solid industrial foundations are likely to experience significant price increases in the latter half of 2025 [10]