天风证券（601162）发布研报称，受春节假期因素影响，房地产供需两端均进入传统淡季，30大中城市 商品房成交面积季节性回落。节前1月的地方两会部署"稳楼市"政策，多地明确表示将着力稳定房地产 市场、推进城市更新，从稳市场和优存量两方面发力，节后重点关注2月下旬地产销售回暖节奏及3月上 旬全国两会的房地产政策定调。 中银国际认为，当前房地产行业仍然面临一定压力。当前防范地产及相关风险仍是首位，市场的惯性下 滑及不断蔓延的看跌预期也可能会倒逼政策尽快出台。2026年全年来看，地产板块出现收益的机会较 大，今年建议关注及配置。节奏上，可能会出现两个拐点，一个是一季度末左右的"政策拐点"，一个是 四季度左右的"基本面拐点"。 内房股涨幅居前，截至发稿，碧桂园(02007)涨6.45%，报0.33港元；建发国际集团(01908)涨5.59%，报 15.67港元；旭辉控股(00884)涨4.82%，报0.087港元；龙湖集团(00960)涨4.49%，报10.23港元。 ...

Group 1: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market may start earlier than usual, potentially in December this year, based on historical trends showing a shift in the timing of spring rallies since 2018 [1] - Historical data indicates that in 8 years since 2018, 4 years saw the spring market begin in December of the previous year, with significant gains typically occurring before the Spring Festival [1][2] - The reasons for this early start include a transformation in economic regulation and a "learning effect" among investors that encourages earlier market movements [2] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - The table outlines the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the start and end dates of the spring market, and the maximum gains during both pre- and post-festival periods from 2010 to 2025 [2] - Notable maximum gains before the Spring Festival include 27.89% in 2013 and 12.87% in 2020, while post-festival gains peaked at 46.94% in 2015 [2] Group 3: White Wine Industry Insights - The white wine sector is experiencing a downturn, with sales expected to decline by approximately 10% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and a more significant drop of 30%-50% in Q2 2025 [4][5] - Despite the challenges, leading brands are still showing growth, and analysts predict a potential stabilization in Q2 2026, with a recovery in demand and pricing expected in Q3 2026 [5] - Fund holdings in the white wine sector have decreased, with the market value of heavy holdings dropping to 5.52%, approaching levels seen in Q2 2017 [6]