Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.14%. However, the commercial aerospace sector is showing active performance, while sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone, CPO, and photolithography machines are facing significant declines [1]. Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests that as incremental funds increasingly consist of left-side stable funds, the A-share and Hong Kong markets may exhibit a pattern similar to the U.S. stock market, characterized by "sharp declines followed by slow recoveries." This presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as they prepare for 2026 [1]. - Dongfang Caifu Securities notes that due to calendar effects and institutional behaviors, recent incremental funds have shifted from a third-quarter consensus to divergence, leading to a slowdown in net inflows. As December approaches, the inflow effect is expected to strengthen again, potentially allowing for an early spring market rally [1]. - Guotai Junan Securities remains optimistic about the Chinese market's prospects, indicating that the stock index is entering a favorable zone. Opportunities often arise during periods of panic, and the Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and embark on a year-end offensive, with significant upward potential, making it a good time for increased holdings [1]. - The volatility in the U.S. AI sector and Google's new highs are seen as a structural shift rather than a market conclusion. China is anticipated to experience a period of policy, liquidity, and fundamental resonance from December to February, suggesting that after market adjustments, there will be a gradual increase in offensive positioning. Key themes include AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and Xinjiang infrastructure [1].

廖市无双：上证破趋势，大盘何去何从？20251123 摘要 上证指数跌破 4 月 7 日以来的上升趋势线，确认五浪结构破位及日线 MACD 底背离，预示将进入 ABC 调整结构，需关注调整结构发展及各 指数表现。当前指数在 3,700-3,800 点区域具备较强支撑，包括 3,732 点、3,774 点和 3,702 点等关键点位。 创业板指数自 10 月 17 日以来创新高后随上证指数调整，形成 A 浪下跌。 科创 50 指数呈现 ABC 结构，C 段加速下跌。创业板风险相对较高，需 谨慎对待，而恒生科技和科创 50 指数调整较为充分，无需进一步杀跌。 本周无行业板块上涨，前期强势板块如电芯、基础化工、钢铁、医药、 有色等显著回调，锂矿链条跌幅接近 10%。银行和食品饮料等防御性板 块相对抗跌，银行因前期回调具备防御属性，食品饮料因涨幅小且风险 释放表现稳健。 美联储降息预期减弱导致全球流动性收紧，比特币价格大幅下跌，引发 以其为抵押的经营经理面临流动性紧张，负面影响传导至股票市场。英 伟达财报超预期但应收账款和存货增加引发质疑，可能影响国内科技股。 Q&A 上证指数和上证 50 的近期走势如何，未来可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent global financial market is dominated by risk aversion, leading to widespread sell-offs in risk assets, including major stock markets and commodities, with A-shares also experiencing adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Adjustments - The A-share market has seen significant adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points, particularly in sectors like new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment [1] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental change in the upward trend of the Chinese stock market, driven by macroeconomic recovery and improved corporate fundamentals [7][11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The early release of risks in the market presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate assets towards A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly for those looking to position for 2026 [3] - After the current adjustments, the spring market is expected to be more promising, with technology growth likely to be a key theme [4][19] Group 3: Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and insurance are expected to show resilience during the current market turbulence, while high-dividend stocks and consumer goods may present rotation opportunities [10] - The AI sector's current phase is seen as just beginning, with significant growth potential remaining, as the market transitions from hardware to application layers [15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to stabilize post-adjustment, with a potential recovery in Chinese assets driven by internal factors such as new economic momentum and clear policy direction [9][18] - The historical pattern suggests that the current adjustments align with typical seasonal fluctuations, with expectations for a spring rally to commence soon [16]

本周科技成长板块大幅回调，带动A股市场调整。机构认为，市场在连续调整后继续下行空间相对有 限，11月之后市场调整有望结束，并迎来2026年春季行情的提前布局窗口。 对于后市配置，机构建议关注红利股、商品价格上涨的周期股，以及创新药和国防军工板块；AI算 力、存储、储能、机器人等板块也有反弹机会。 影响后市投资大事件 工信部：深入推进工业互联网高质量发展 11月22日，2025中国5G+工业互联网大会在武汉开幕。工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成表示，工 业和信息化部将坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，深入推进工业互联网高质量发展，为引领发展新质 生产力提供坚实支撑。 央企专业化整合再推进 11月21日，国务院国资委组织召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并举行重点项目签约仪式。8组17家单位 分两批进行了重点项目集中签约，主要涉及新材料、人工智能、邮轮运营、检验检测、航空物流等关键 领域。 增量资金来了！16只硬科技主题基金同日获批 在市场情绪较为谨慎、板块轮动速度加快、热点行情持续性不强的环境下，A股市场呈现明显的"高切 低"特征，预计短期行情仍以震荡为主。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：一是投资者或转向红利股寻求 防御 ...

中信证券：当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 11月23日，十大券商最新策略观点新鲜出炉，具体如下： | 券商 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 | | 华安证券 | AI主线"至暗时刻" 但长期信心坚定不移 | | 国金证券 | 打铁还需自身硬 | | 信达证券 | 风格切换可能会越来越强 关注低位价值板块 | | 中泰证券 | 本轮科技行情远未结束 在短期回调后有望延续 | | 兴业证券 | 中国资产有望迎来修复 | | 非金证券 | 短期继续均衡配置补涨的成长和低估值价值行业 | | 申万宏源 | 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" | | 浙商证券 | 切勿盲目杀跌 盯券商、等待弹性重扩张 | | 东吴证券 | 资金主线有望向AI应用等方向切换 | 全球风险资产的波动表面是流动性问题，本质是风险资产对于AI单一叙事过于依赖，当产业发展速度（尤其是商业 化）跟不上二级市场的节奏时，适当的估值修正也是一种纾解风险的方式。北京时间周四（11月20日）晚，美国非农 就业数据的公布以及年内美联 ...

癌周研选 本周避险情绪主导全球金融市场，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售。全球主要股市（尤其是科技股）和大宗商品（原油、基本金属）普遍下跌。在这一传导效应 下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。 11.23 2025 星期日 如何看待近期市场的调整？前期热门科技股的估值消化是否已经到位？请看本周机构研判。 解 锁 市场 最 强 音,把 握 投 资 机 会! 本周避险情绪主导全球金融市 场,风险资产普遍遭遇抛售。 全球主要股市(尤其是科技股) 和大宗商品(原油、基本金属) 普遍下跌。在这一传导效应下, A股市场同样经历调整,上证指 数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、 电力设备等板块回调明显,银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念 相对抗跌。 如何看待近期市场的调整?前期 热门科技股的估值消化是否已经 申万宏源：调整后春季行情更值得期待 9月以来AI产业链已处于高位震荡阶段。与此同时，近期美联储货币宽松低于预期，这进一步引发了全球高风险资产普跌。调整背后的本质还是资产性价 比降低，脆弱性提高，对流动性冲击的敏感度提升。对比2014年初的创业板、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the adjustment of A-shares began on November 14, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 4.8%, with structural adjustments being more pronounced than the index itself, particularly in sectors that previously saw significant gains [2][3] Market Adjustment Factors - The current market adjustment is attributed to both external factors and internal pressures, including global liquidity tightening and concerns over an "AI bubble" affecting technology sectors [2][3] - Global liquidity has been tightening due to multiple factors, including the U.S. government shutdown and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has led to a cautious market outlook [2][3] - The tightening of liquidity is further exacerbated by Japan's proposed fiscal stimulus and mixed signals from U.S. employment data, which do not strongly indicate a need for interest rate cuts [2][3] Historical Context - Historically, the fourth quarter is a "settlement season" for A-shares, where adjustments are common before the spring rally, with maximum drawdowns often exceeding 5% even during bull markets [4][5] - The current maximum drawdown of 6.5% since October is considered relatively high compared to historical levels during bull markets [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the current adjustment phase will end after November, leading to an early spring market rally, supported by solid year-end liquidity conditions [6] - The focus for the upcoming spring market is expected to shift towards AI applications and sectors closely aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in technology innovation and advanced manufacturing [6][7] Sector Allocation - If the market begins its spring rally in December, the main investment focus is likely to shift towards AI applications and related sectors, with a historical precedent of sector rebalancing influencing market performance [7] - Key areas of interest include AI applications in healthcare, robotics, and smart driving, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic policy support such as hydrogen energy and quantum technology [7]

随着北美大厂 AI 资本开支的步伐变的更为激进、而 AI 对经济及企业盈 利的拉动效应尚未充分展现，市场对于资本开支向 EPS 传导的评估更为 审慎、开始关注"AI 泡沫"风险。在此基础上，过去两年"科技大厂算力 军备竞赛、资本开支集中上修"即可顺利带动算力行情的模式将有所变化， 未来 AI 叙事的持续演绎，除了算力本身的旺盛需求外，可能还需要看到 AI 价值创造更为明确的信号。 ◼ 一是，全球流动性紧缩之下，A 股难以"独善其身" 近期多重因素轮番作用，全球流动性呈现紧缩态势。此前阶段，紧缩格局 主要受美国联邦政府停摆影响，TGA 账户"只进不出"大量吸收市场流动 性，对美国本土冲击更为直接，亦推动美股率先见顶回落。随着美政府重 新开门，这一流动性压力已明显缓和，当前流动性趋紧的核心驱动在于 12 月美联储大概率不降息： 基于多重原因，流动性收紧压力带动近期全球资产普遍回调，A 股市场难 以"独善其身"。 ◼ 二是，海外"AI 泡沫"焦虑、科技板块下跌，波及 A 股 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20251123 如何看待近期市场的调整 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Summ ...

电万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/17-25/11/22) 相关研究 -申万宏源 2026 《生市内龄论 年Ａ股投资策略》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究反方持 2025 年 11 月 22 日 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、调整是"怀疑牛市级别"：AI 产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"，这神似 2014 年初的创业板、2018 年初的食品饮料、2021 年初的新能源。这种情况下，出现季度级别的"高位震荡"和"调整阶段"符合历史规律。 调整也只是"怀疑牛市级别"："牛市两段论"是 A 股牛市周期的典型特征。调整后耐心 O 等待基本面周期性改 ...

策 略 研 究 2025 年 11 月 22 日 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/17-25/11/22) 相关研究 《牛市两段论——申万宏源 2026 年 A 股投资策略》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、调整是"怀疑牛市级别"：AI 产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"，这神似 2014 年初的创业板、2018 年初的食品饮料、2021 年初的新能源。这种情况下，出现季度级别的"高位震荡"和"调整阶段"符合历史规律。 ⚫ 调整 ...