Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" and "prioritizing people's livelihoods" as key tasks for the upcoming year, aligning with the long-term goals of enhancing consumer capacity and improving the social security system outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] Income Growth - The conference introduces a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents, marking a shift from short-term consumption stimulation to long-term income structure improvement, with a focus on synchronizing income growth with economic growth and labor remuneration with productivity [3] - The income growth plan targets various groups, including college graduates and migrant workers, aiming to stabilize employment and income through job retention and quality enhancement actions [3] - Policies will also address the income of flexible workers like delivery personnel by improving their social security mechanisms, thereby alleviating their concerns about spending [3] Supply Expansion - The conference prioritizes domestic demand and proposes actions to boost consumption by expanding the supply of quality goods and services [6] - There is a focus on upgrading consumer goods from basic to high-quality products, with policies aimed at promoting the iteration of popular items like smartphones and smart home devices [8] - The initiative includes expanding the scope of trade-in policies to cover various categories, enhancing the adaptability of supply to meet consumer needs [8] Investment Promotion - Investment is highlighted as a crucial lever for expanding domestic demand, with the conference calling for measures to stabilize and invigorate private investment [11] - The conference acknowledges a 1.7% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment in the first ten months of the year, while emphasizing the need for structural optimization in investment, particularly in high-tech sectors [11] - The government aims to create a stable and predictable environment for private investment by addressing barriers and expanding access [13] Consumption Environment Improvement - The conference outlines measures to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, aligning with the goal of building a unified national market [14] - Policies will encourage the development of new consumption formats such as digital and green consumption, enhancing the management of emerging consumption models [16] - The initiative includes the establishment of a national unified market construction regulation to improve market order and protect consumer rights, fostering a more favorable consumption environment [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" in 2025 to "improving quality and efficiency" in 2026, with a shift from quantity requirements to quality requirements. As the economic cycle gradually improves, the marginal intensity of macro policies weakens [2]. - Fiscal policy in 2026 lacks incremental fiscal spending and emphasizes "strict financial discipline." It is expected to shift from "expansion" to "stability" [2][8]. - The increment of monetary easing is limited, and the focus shifts to credit expansion. The policy center shifts from focusing on the matching between the real economy and finance to promoting the growth of the real economy, with an emphasis on key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [3][9]. - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expect the implementation of the "income doubling plan"), innovation (the "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry and "fintech" may be highlights), and risk prevention (the order of risk prevention is postponed, and local government debt will be resolved "actively and orderly") [3][9]. Summary by Catalog Strategy Summary - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th. After a "very extraordinary" year in 2025, the macro policy remained stable, and the economy began to show characteristics of "new and high-quality development" [1][7]. - With the macro environment shifting from "strategic defense" to "strategic stalemate," the demand for "putting ourselves first" in the domestic economy has increased. The relationship between the effective market and the effective government has shifted from "letting go and controlling well" in 2024 to "letting go and managing well," reflecting a transformation towards a service-oriented government [7]. - In 2026, the instability of external demand will increase, and the domestic economy should "put itself first" to expand domestic demand [8]. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." The goals, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and key tasks in 2026 are as described above [2][3]. First Paragraph - The description of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 remains the same as in 2024 [10][11][12]. Review - Compared with the Politburo meeting on the 8th and the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, the main changes include the description of the nature of the year, the economic situation, and the development of productivity [14][15][16]. Understanding - The epistemological paragraph of the 2025 economic work conference regarding "economic work" is advanced compared to 2024, highlighting the guiding concept of economic work - "putting ourselves first." The strategic autonomy has been enhanced, and the relationship between the effective market and the effective government has changed [19][20][21]. Current Situation - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference added the description of "old problems and new challenges" when describing economic development problems. It believes that these are problems in development and transformation and can be solved through efforts. The description of the external environment has changed, and the focus on the domestic environment has shifted to "strong supply and weak demand" [23][24][26]. Requirements - The description of the requirements for economic work in 2026 is basically consistent with that of the Politburo meeting. The "steady progress while maintaining stability" work keynote is postponed, and the external demand faces increased instability in 2026. Macro policies remain "active and effective," with enhanced policy "foresight, pertinence, and synergy" and an adjustment in the relationship between supply and demand policies [28][30][31]. Goals - In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "improving quality and efficiency." Fiscal policy shifts from "expansion" to "stability," and monetary policy focuses on credit expansion. Policy coordination focuses on considering "stock" and "increment" together [44][45][46]. Tasks - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expanding the "income increase plan" to urban and rural residents, optimizing the implementation of "two new" and "two important" projects, and high-quality urban renewal), innovation (talent as the primary task, "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry, and fintech services), reform ("anti-involution" in the reform part, "reduction and quality improvement" of small and medium-sized financial institutions), and risk prevention (postponing the order of risk prevention, stabilizing the real estate market, and actively resolving local government debt risks) [49][60][61]. Methods - The goal has changed from "achieving an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment, and reasonable price recovery" in 2025 to "solving existing difficult problems," which is more of an economic structure issue that needs to be addressed through reform [66][67][68]. Actions - The shift from "emphasizing action" in 2024 to "correct performance concept" and "acting according to laws" in 2025 implies that the economy in 2026 will show structural characteristics [69][70][71]. New Year Transition - Arrangements are made for the New Year transition, emphasizing the resolution of social contradictions in the context of pressure and difficulties [72][73][74].