Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth of individual income tax (IIT) in May, which has outperformed other tax categories, indicating a potential positive trend amidst overall fiscal challenges [4][11]. Group 1: Individual Income Tax (IIT) Insights - In May, the IIT increased by 12.3% year-on-year, leading all tax categories, following a 9% increase in April [4][11]. - From January to May, IIT is the only major tax category showing positive growth at 8.2%, significantly above the annual budget target of 3.2% [4][11]. - The growth in IIT is attributed to wage increases and dividend income, with wages accounting for 65.5% and dividends for 13.3% of IIT [5][6]. Group 2: Sustainability of IIT Growth - The growth in IIT may continue due to delayed salary adjustments for civil servants and increased trading volume in dividend stocks [5][6]. - The potential release of pent-up consumption from delayed salary adjustments could sustain IIT growth into the latter half of 2024 [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Incremental Policies - IIT's growth could offset the scale of incremental policy measures but may not change the direction of these policies [7][22]. - If IIT maintains its growth rate, it could exceed budget expectations by approximately 700 billion [7][22]. - Future incremental policies will be influenced by fiscal needs and economic demands, with key meetings scheduled for late July and August [8][9][10]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Analysis - In May, overall fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 0.1%, with central government revenue maintaining a positive growth of 0.4% while local revenue turned negative at -0.1% [25][27]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in computer and communication equipment, showed double-digit growth in tax revenue [27]. - Government fund income turned negative at -8.1% in May, primarily due to declining land sales revenue [41].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy in China has been actively implemented in the first four months of 2023, with a significant increase in fiscal expenditure compared to revenue, supporting economic resilience in April [2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2023, the total national broad fiscal revenue reached 93,202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure was 119,717 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% [2][5]. - The fiscal revenue shortfall compared to expenditure was approximately 26,515 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of about 54% [2][5]. - The general public budget expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget growth rate of 4.4% [3][4]. Government Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, with net financing of government bonds reaching 48,500 billion yuan in the first four months, an increase of 35,800 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - Local government bond issuance totaled approximately 35,354 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 84%, the highest in recent years [6][9]. Economic Support Measures - The fiscal expenditure has been directed towards social security, employment, and education, with social security and employment spending around 17,000 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, and education spending approximately 15,000 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [4][5]. - Infrastructure investment has shown stable growth at 5.8%, supported by the acceleration of local government special bond issuance [4][5]. Future Outlook - The central government has indicated a need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the acceleration of local government special bonds and long-term special bonds [9][12]. - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will continue to be a crucial support for economic resilience in the second quarter, with potential for new debt policies to be introduced later in the year [12][13].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 核心结论 关税不确定性使财政扩张的必要性增加，我们提示二季度或有几个边际变化： 1 、 二季度财政或加速发行既定债务 ，增量债务或随时接续（经验规律： 增量债务政策 多在 6 月底 ~10 月底 ）； 2 、财政扩张方向或 由一季度偏消费到二季度边际倾斜投资 ； 3 、 基于既定政策测算， 二季度广义财政支出增速或在 -0.6%~10.4% 附近 （ 今年一季度为 4.3% ， 2019~2024 年二季度均值为 1.8% ；均为不考虑中央金融机构注资特别国债、用于化债的特殊新增专项债 的同口径比较）， 若新增专项债极限提速 （如首个出台专项债"自审自发"方案的省份湖南要求"原则上 6 月底前完成全年专项债券发行工作"； 2018 年 8 月中美贸易争端升级后，财政部要求在两个月内发完全年 额度） 或增量债务接续，增速或更高。 一、财政扩张的规律：二季度或加速发行既定债务，增量债务或随时接续 债务是支持财政扩张的重要力量，每年可分为既定债务和增量债务。既定债务规模由预算确定 ...