1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].