本报记者 葛孟超 外部形势依然复杂严峻，主要经济体利率调整幅度和节奏还有不确定性，地缘政治冲击可能持续存在， 对汇率走势会有一定的扰动。邹澜表示，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动、保持弹性。 《 人民日报 》( 2026年01月24日 02 版) 1月23日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对 人民币6.9929元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0019，调升90个基点，创下2023年5月以来的新高。 当日，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率双双升值。2025年末，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率相继破"7"， 目前维持在"7"的上方运行。 中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏表示，这反映出人民币汇率在内外因素共振下呈现阶段性走强态势，这 一变化是市场供求、政策引导与外部环境协同作用的结果。"2026年影响人民币汇率涨跌的因素同时存 在。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛说。 此前在国务院新闻办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，向前看，中国具有超大规模市场和 完整产业链，科技创新和产业创新加速融合，新动能蓬勃发展，内需潜力不断释放，国内国际双循环更 加畅通，宏观经济基本面长期向好，这对人民 ...

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]