有色金属日报 2025-11-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美领导人通电话，市场情绪回暖，铜价震荡略升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约微涨 0.03%至 10781 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 86040 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 725 至 155750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 小 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is expected to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. With ample supply, the raw sugar price will likely stay weak. In the Chinese market, the old - sugar stock has been mostly cleared, new - sugar pressure is increasing, and the October import volume exceeded expectations, so the overall sugar market is expected to be weak [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Related Products**: The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean meal supply is abundant. The downward space of the current futures price is limited, but it is difficult to strengthen based on cost and profit logic alone. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Pig**: The market supply has recovered, and the price has weakened again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the mid - term price is not optimistic, and the increased selling enthusiasm after price recovery is not conducive to the near - month futures market. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [6]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are stable, supported by strong demand in the USDA report. In the domestic market, the short - term pressure from new cotton listing and high production, combined with weak downstream demand, may lead to a weak cotton price within a certain range, although the relatively low inventory of downstream spinning enterprises provides some support [8]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast is sufficient but the selling enthusiasm is low, and the market is quiet with stable prices. In North China, the number of trucks at deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price has slightly increased. With about 20% of the new - season corn sold, there is still selling pressure. The demand from deep - processing and feed sectors is not strong. The corn market will have intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term [10]. - **Edible Oils**: For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD futures may stop falling and strengthen after stabilizing at 4150 ringgit. The domestic palm oil may rise to the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong. For soybean oil, the CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term correction. The domestic soybean oil demand is weak, but the poor crushing profit provides some support, and the support for the January contract is around 8200 yuan [13]. - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory remains high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased, the ICE raw sugar主力 slightly increased, the 1 - 5 spread widened, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, the Nanning basis decreased, and the Kunming basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national and Guangxi sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the national sales rate decreased, the Guangxi sales rate increased, the national industrial inventory decreased, and the Guangxi and Yunnan industrial inventories increased. The sugar import volume increased [2]. Soybean Meal and Related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot and futures prices of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased, the basis decreased significantly, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans increased, the futures prices of bean one and bean two decreased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - month spreads, the oil - meal ratio, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed to different degrees [4]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2601 and 2605 decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions decreased, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators changed slightly [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: The sample - point daily slaughter volume increased slightly, the weekly white - strip price decreased, the weekly piglet price increased, the sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased slightly, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased slightly [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton主力 decreased, the 5 - 1 spread widened, the main - contract position decreased, the warehouse receipt increased, and the valid forecast decreased [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased slightly, the FC Index decreased, and the basis of 3128B to 01 and 05 contracts increased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories, the bonded - area inventory, and the cotton out - of - Xinjiang shipment volume increased month - on - month. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days, and the clothing and textile exports changed to different degrees [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the south - north trade profit decreased, the import profit decreased, the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 01 spread remained unchanged, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [10]. Edible Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, the warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the inter - month spread decreased [13]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased significantly, the import cost decreased, the import profit decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [13]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis decreased, the warehouse receipt decreased slightly, and the inter - month spread increased [13]. - **Spreads**: The inter - month spreads, the bean - palm spread, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to different degrees [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 12 and 01 contracts increased, the basis decreased, and the 12 - 01 spread increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price increased slightly, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: [Black Metal Weekly Report] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Black Metal Research Center Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The emotional trading of steel has come to an end, and the focus has returned to the industrial supply side. The third round of price increase for coking coal and coke has been delayed, and the macro - level positive factors have been realized. There is no new driver for iron ore to break through the price range [3][7][41][5]. Summary by Category 1. Steel - **Supply**: Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the weekly decline in hot - metal production accelerated, with a decrease of 3.5 to 236 million tons in the current week. Although the total production remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the overall production level is likely to be reduced in the future. The compression of steel mill production profit further intensifies, and a downward adjustment of production is a likely event [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory continues to decline, and the weekly apparent demand continues to improve, which is a safeguard to prevent the price from collapsing further. The overall demand this year shows characteristics of seasonal rigid demand remaining, insufficient speculative demand, and stable external demand [8]. - **Inventory**: The total steel inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the inventory pressure of some varieties is obvious. The total inventory of five major steel products is at a slightly high - neutral level, and the destocking slope during the golden September peak season is not ideal [8]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased synchronously, with a more obvious decline in rebar. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 84, a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 22, a weekly decrease of 18 [8]. - **Profit**: The production profit of long - process steel mills is meager, and most electric - arc furnaces are in a loss state. However, due to the seasonal peak season, the terminal rigid demand and shipment situation are acceptable, and the market is in a weak balance [8]. - **Valuation**: The discount of the futures price on the disk has been repaired, and the relative valuation of the futures price has increased. In the industrial dimension, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [8]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The emotional trading in the market due to important time points may have ended, and the focus is gradually returning to industrial contradictions [8]. - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. In the future, the steel production is likely to decline gradually. At the initial stage of production reduction, it may suppress the furnace materials, and in the second half, it may drive the sector to rise jointly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar of the 01 contract is below 150 for a long - position layout. For futures - spot trading, roll and take profit on reverse spreads [8]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The demand for steel is about to face seasonal weakening pressure. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 865.32 (+8.37) this week, and the production is 892.73 (+17.32). The steel inventory is still high, and the destocking slope is flat. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills is 236.36 (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%) [42]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The domestic coal mine supply is continuously restricted. Affected by production stoppages in some areas of Shanxi and Wuhai, the coking coal production has decreased again this week. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to more than 1,000 vehicles, but the supply of Mongolian No. 5 coal is still tight. The quotation of seaborne coal is stable with a slight upward trend [42]. - **Coke Supply**: The coke supply has increased slightly. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.8 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9). The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, but the cost of raw coal is still rising, and the expansion of coking profit is limited [42]. - **Inventory**: The mine - end inventory continues to decline. Although the downstream procurement demand is still being released, steel mills have limited profit and low acceptance of high - priced raw materials [42]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the third - round price increase of coke is implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1,700, and the warehouse - receipt cost of port - trading is 1,715. The warehouse - receipt costs of Shanxi coal and Mongolian coal are between 1,350 - 1,400, but the actual warehouse - receipt cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues [42]. - **Profit**: The profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9) [42]. - **Summary**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been realized, and the black - metal sector has risen and then fallen. Considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel - mill profit - making rate, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke may ease. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support and consider going long in the medium - to - long term. For arbitrage, industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [42]. 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The previous shipping data showed a week - on - week decline of 32.9 million tons per day to 451 million tons per day, mainly due to seasonal factors. The total arrival volume in China decreased by 28.4 million tons per day week - on - week. There is no significant unexpected fluctuation in the supply side [91]. - **Demand**: The steel - mill hot - metal production has dropped significantly to 236.36 million tons (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills has also declined. Although the steel apparent demand has continued to rise in the short term, it will decline under the influence of seasonal factors in the future [91]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 163.44 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand [91]. - **Profit**: The steel - mill profit continues to decline. Although steel mills will not actively shut down production on a large scale, the hot - metal production will decline in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions or other policy - related reasons [91]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is at a relatively high - neutral level [91]. - **Summary**: The influence of macro - level sentiment has weakened this week. The supply of iron ore is in a reasonable fluctuation range. Under the influence of environmental protection restrictions and possible production cuts in Shanxi, the hot - metal production will remain around 235 in the short term, and the port inventory will continue to rise [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, try short - selling. For arbitrage, wait and see for the time being [91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive macro - sentiment and cost - driven support from the rebound in coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile downward trend last week due to the oversupply in the industry. The futures price dropped to a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol开工率, increasing import pressure, and high inventories at ports, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Prices Declined Slightly, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 31, 2025, the mainstream spot prices of methanol in East China, South China, and North China decreased slightly week - on - week. The basis discount between the East - China spot price and the methanol 2601 contract futures price narrowed slightly, with a basis discount of 1 yuan/ton as of the end of that week [9]. 1.2 Industry Factors Dominated, and Methanol Trended Weakly - Affected by industry oversupply, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract continued to decline last week, reaching a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Increased Slightly, and Weekly Output Decreased Slightly - After the holiday, with the resumption of some previously - overhauled devices, the domestic methanol supply pressure rebounded. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.88%, up 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% year - on - year. The average weekly methanol output reached 196.81 tons, up 2.46 tons week - on - week, 9.54 tons month - on - month, and 8.51 tons year - on - year [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rebounded - In the fourth quarter, methanol supply in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America was sufficient, but international demand was weak. Some methanol was shipped to China. Although the operating rate of Iranian methanol decreased to 3.5 tons per day due to some device failures, it could still meet the shipping volume to China in the short term. In September 2025, China's methanol imports decreased to 142.69 tons month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that China's methanol imports will remain high in the fourth quarter [21][23]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand was Weak, and Olefin Profit Rebounded Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rate of acetic acid decreased slightly. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin devices decreased slightly week - on - week. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 10 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [25]. 2.4 Port Inventories Increased Slightly, and Inland Inventories Increased Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 128.29 tons, up 1.31 tons week - on - week, 1.48 tons month - on - month, and 26.19 tons year - on - year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 36.04 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week, 4.04 tons month - on - month, and down 7.65 tons year - on - year [31]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2275 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2525 yuan/ton. With the methanol futures 2601 contract price at 2272 yuan/ton, the loss was 3 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about - 0.13%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2343 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2593 yuan/ton, with a loss of 71 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about - 3.03%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 2267 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2518 yuan/ton, with a profit of 5 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 0.22% [34][35]. 3. Conclusion - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol operating rate, increasing import pressure, and high port inventories, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel supply and demand are neutral with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black - metal market mainly depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. It is recommended to reduce long positions at the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - After multiple days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore has weakened. It is recommended to close long single - side positions and switch to a wait - and - see mode, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. It is recommended to speculatively go long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but be aware of the large price fluctuations [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, and some steelmaking costs and profits changed. For example, East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 4 to 17 yuan [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1, a rise of 2.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1, a decline of 3.0% [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices generally decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1%. The profit of sample coal mines increased by 39 to 232, a rise of 7.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8, a rise of 0.4% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, a rise of 2.2% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Steel market is oscillating without a clear single - side direction. Although the Steel Union data improved on Thursday with a short - term continuation of the structure of both supply and demand rising, there are still pressures such as high inventory and insufficient de - stocking slope. Suggest to wait and see or conduct range trading, and consider taking profit on basis long positions before National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply is increasing, and terminal demand verification is pending. There is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up, and high inventory needs to be de - stocked [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price increase has started comprehensively, and coking coal spot prices continue to strengthen. The market is concerned about pre - holiday furnace material replenishment, but due to limited terminal demand improvement, the upward drive is limited. It is recommended to gradually close long positions before the holiday and use selling hedging if prices rise again [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: There are continuous disturbances from bullish rumors. Support exists before the holiday, but the upside depends on steel demand. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and maintain the long - term view of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes on September 25**: - **Rebar (RB)**: RB2605 closed at 3225 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.25%; RB2601 (near - month contract) closed at 3167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32% [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil (HC)**: HC2605 closed at 3366 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%; HC2601 closed at 3358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - **Other Contracts**: I2605 closed at 785.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%; J2605 closed at 1900 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan or 1.63%; JM2605 closed at 1328 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.91%. For near - month contracts, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 also had corresponding price changes [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: - **Cross - month Spread**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton on September 25, with a change of 5 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 8 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Other Spreads and Ratios**: The coil - rebar spread was 191 yuan/ton, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.93, the coal - coke ratio was 1.43, the rebar disk profit was - 99.83 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 118.12 yuan/ton on September 25, with corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Prices on September 25**: - **Rebar**: Shanghai rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan/ton, Hangzhou was 3430 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou was 3390 yuan/ton, all with no change [1]. - **Other Spot Goods**: Tangshan billet was 3030 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.1, up 0.4; various iron ore and coking coal spot prices also had specific values and changes [1]. - **Basis**: - On September 25, the basis of HC was 62 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis of RB was 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the basis of I was 26 yuan/ton with no change; the basis of J was - 187.37 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of JM was 80.5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about report industry investment ratings in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to face resistance at 4,450 ringgit and may fall back to 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and test 9,000 yuan. Argentine soybean oil exports will be taxed again, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient, so the basis of soybean oil is difficult to rise continuously [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to oversupply. Zhengzhou sugar futures have broken through 5,500 yuan, but there is short - term rebound momentum while maintaining a bearish trend overall [2]. Cotton - The mid - term domestic cotton price may be under pressure due to weak seed cotton purchasing willingness and high hedging pressure on the supply side, as well as weak downstream demand [3]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to sufficient supply and potential demand increase during festivals [4]. Corn - The corn market will be under pressure in the short term. The price will likely decline with new grain listing, and the market will focus on the new grain acquisition rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - Argentine soybean exports have restarted the export tax, and US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken [8]. Pigs - The pig market is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment, following the spot price with small fluctuations. Market supply is recovering, and demand is slowly picking up [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On September 25, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil rose by 0.96%, and the futures price of Y2601 rose by 1.14%. The basis of palm oil in Guangdong changed significantly, and the import profit decreased. The price of rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and the soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread also fluctuated [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.06%. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis increased, and the import price of Brazilian sugar also changed slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also changed [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 5 - 1 spread changed significantly. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the FC Index of M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased [3]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 11 and 10 contracts increased, and the 11 - 10 spread changed [4]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased slightly, and the prices of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, while the price of culled chickens increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The feed - to - egg ratio increased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - **Price Changes**: The spot and futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all had corresponding increases, and the basis and import crushing margins also changed [8]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the oil - meal ratio and soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed [8]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The prices of live hog 2511 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 11 - 1 spread decreased [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of hogs in different regions changed, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators also had corresponding changes [10].

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

Group 1 - China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with automotive retail sales showing a decline [1] - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, marking ten consecutive months of actual retail sales growth, although consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in August [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlighted concerns over inflation, indicating a hawkish stance, with attention on Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] Group 2 - Copper prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a decline in copper processing rates and increased imports amid a seasonal demand lull [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply and sluggish domestic consumption, despite recent high price levels [1] - Zinc production exceeded 600,000 tons in July, with continued recovery in August, although there are pressures from increased social inventory [1] Group 3 - Nickel prices are experiencing volatility due to increased domestic inventory and weak demand, with a surplus in primary nickel globally [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with potential support for the non-ferrous sector from anticipated Fed rate cuts in September [1] - Operational strategies suggest short-term trading with a focus on selling high and managing risks [1]