Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are stabilizing. The night trading prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils closed at 3,105 yuan and 3,271 yuan respectively. Supply and demand are both weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The off-season characteristics are obvious. Near the Spring Festival, the industry's supply and demand are weak, and the black market valuation is not high, close to the lower edge of the oscillation range, with limited further downward space. The price of coking coal strengthened due to the expected reduction in Indonesian coal production, and it is expected that the supply side of coking coal will affect the black market fluctuations in the near future. Steel prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and the upward elasticity depends on the supply-side policies of coking coal and market sentiment. Consider holding a long position in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. Short-term long positions in hot-rolled coils can be attempted at the 3,250 level [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract was weak, and the night trading continued to show weakness. The raw material side showed continuous differentiation. Affected by the Indonesian coal export restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, and the coking coal ratio strengthened. The supply side of iron ore had a slight increase in global shipments this period, and the shipment center decreased marginally but was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. On the demand side, SMM predicted that the impact of blast furnace maintenance would decline this week, and the molten iron output might increase slightly. After the festival, the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Currently, the supply and demand of finished products are still healthy, and the inventories of plates and cold-rolled products continue to decline. The terminal demand for steel exports has decreased, but it still has some resilience. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the festival. In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the high absolute inventory had a strong suppression on iron ore prices; while steel mill inventories increased significantly, and the port clearance volume increased month-on-month, and the replenishment was gradually realized. In the future, the demand for iron ore before the festival is weak, and the high inventory and high off-season supply continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Short positions can be attempted, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, on January 28, steel mills officially accepted the coke price increase and started implementing it on the 30th. The port price remained stable, and the coke market rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production slightly after New Year's Day, the molten iron output was low, and the steel price rebounded from a low level. In terms of inventory, both coking plants and steel mills accumulated inventory, and the port inventory decreased. The overall inventory increased slightly at a medium level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are in a slightly tight balance. In terms of strategy, the implementation of the price increase drives the market to rebound, but the implementation time of the price increase by mainstream coking enterprises lags, which suppresses the expectation of future price increases. There is still an expectation of loosening after the festival. The rebound of the coking coal futures price provides cost support. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, the auction price of Shanxi spot showed a downward trend, with the price of low-sulfur main coking coal in some coal mines decreasing. The Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate has decreased, and the winter storage replenishment is approaching the end. The thermal coal market has started to stabilize recently. On the supply side, after the New Year, the daily output of coal mines continued to recover, entering the resumption of production stage, with good shipments and accelerated inventory reduction. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the Mongolian coal quotation has rebounded and then declined. After New Year's Day, the customs clearance has quickly recovered to a relatively high level. On the demand side, the molten iron output of steel mills remained low, the coking profit declined, and the production declined. The downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival has limited growth. In terms of inventory, with the progress of downstream replenishment, coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports have all accumulated inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, and ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the short-term implementation of the coke price increase drives the market to rebound. India classifies coking coal as a strategic resource, and the Indonesian government's reduction of the annual coal production plan has led to coal mine production cuts, and overseas market disturbances have driven the rebound of coking coal. However, the domestic supply and demand are generally balanced. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron - The main silicon iron contract oscillated, and the contract was shifted to 05. The Indonesian coal export restrictions led to an expected increase in the cost of silicon iron. On the spot side, the price in the Ningxia production area weakened slightly yesterday, and the rest remained stable. Near the holiday, the transaction was cold. On the supply side, the silicon iron output increased slightly month-on-month, basically the same as the previous period, with limited changes, and the absolute value was still at a historically low level in the same period. The output in most production areas was basically the same as last week, and the output in Ningxia increased slightly. It is expected that the silicon iron output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of magnesium metal demand, the daily output is still at a relatively high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened compared with the previous period, and the price has declined; the silicon iron export is also affected by many factors, and the overall steel demand has weakened marginally. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke remained stable, and the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased slightly. Pay attention to the changes in the settlement electricity prices in other production areas. The cost side still has support. In the future, the short-term supply and demand contradiction of silicon iron is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the cost side has support. Pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,800 [7]. Manganese Silicon - The main manganese silicon contract oscillated, and the position was reduced before the festival. On the spot side, the downstream steel mills have basically completed the replenishment, and at the same time, the transportation has gradually stagnated, and the spot transaction is cold. Fundamentally, the manganese silicon supply has declined slightly, and the recent output has basically remained stable, with the manufacturer's operating rate increasing. The absolute output is at a historically low level. Affected by the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the output has steadily increased; the output in Ningxia has continued to decline; the southern region is affected by the power grid policy adjustment, and there is an expected significant increase in electricity prices in the future. Most manufacturers maintain production suspension, and the output in Guangxi continues to shrink. It is expected that the share of the southern manganese silicon production area will continue to shrink, and the manganese silicon output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remains high, and the pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the order level is relatively low, and the total inventory is moderately high. In terms of cost, the alloy manufacturers' manganese ore procurement is basically over, and the inventory replenishment is weak. The first-round quotation of the outer disk continues to rise, and the maintenance of some mines in Africa has a short-term impact on the supply. The cost support of manganese ore still exists. Affected by the Indonesian coal production restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, driving up the price of coke. Recently, this factor may have an impact on the manganese silicon price, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. Overall, manganese silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still an expectation of resumption of production after the festival, and the fundamentals lack driving force. In the short term, pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar increased by 12 yuan, 15 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot-rolled coils increased by 13 yuan, 20 yuan, and 23 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3,730 yuan/ton. - The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 3,236 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar decreased by 16 yuan to 3,170 yuan/ton. - The profit of rebar in East China decreased by 6 yuan to -30 yuan/ton, the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 16 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 6 yuan to 160 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot-rolled coils in East China decreased by 6 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, the profit of hot-rolled coils in North China decreased by 6 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coils in South China increased by 4 yuan to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. - The output of the five major steel products increased by 3.6 tons to 823.2 tons, an increase of 0.4%. - The rebar output increased by 0.3 tons to 199.8 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the electric furnace output decreased by 1.1 tons to 32.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2%, and the converter output increased by 1.4 tons to 167.6 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot-rolled coil output increased by 3.8 tons to 309.2 tons, an increase of 1.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.4 tons to 1,278.5 tons, an increase of 1.7%. - The rebar inventory increased by 23.4 tons to 475.5 tons, an increase of 5.2%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 tons to 355.6 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 3.6 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. - The demand for the five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons to 801.7 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The demand for rebar decreased by 9.1 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 1.5 tons to 311.4 tons, an increase of 0.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 4.4 yuan, 4.4 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%. - The 05 contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 0.4 yuan, 0.4 yuan, 0.3 yuan, and 0.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.4%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, a decrease of 2.9%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons to 2,484.7 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The global shipment volume increased by 116.3 tons to 3,094.6 tons, an increase of 3.9%. - The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11,964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume increased by 21.6 tons to 332.3 tons, an increase of 6.9%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.1 tons to 6,072.2 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.4 tons to 6,817.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons to 17,022.26 tons, an increase of 1.5%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons to 9,968.6 tons, an increase of 6.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.0 days to 27.0 days, an increase of 17.4% [3]. Coke Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,671 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 yuan to 1,745 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coke increased by 55 yuan to 1,770 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 48 yuan to 1,832 yuan/ton. - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 29 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coking coal increased by 42 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 36 yuan to 1,282 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons to 62.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. - The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 47.0 tons, an increase of 0.2% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 21.5 tons to 960.6 tons, an increase of 2.3%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.9 tons to 84.4 tons, an increase of 3.6%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 16.6 tons to 678.2 tons, an increase of 2.5%. - The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 198.1 tons, an increase of 1.0% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The zinc ore's visible inventory is marginally accumulating, and the TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of zinc smelting has slightly improved, while the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the Shanghai-London ratio, the situation of element outflow has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data released on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double-loose policy has not yet been reflected in the economic data. Before the release of the next round of economic data, the non-ferrous sector may enter a period of volatile consolidation, during which the trading focus of Shanghai zinc may shift from strong macro to weak reality [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.77% at 24,600 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 223,000 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S rose 40 to $3,239/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total open interest of 228,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,620 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 40 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 25 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 30,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was recorded at 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was recorded at 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was recorded at 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was recorded at 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was recorded at 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 02 - Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16] 03 - Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of -7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.86%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 462,600 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.15% and a month - on - month change of -10.44%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 5,318,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 30.4%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 496,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.82% and a month - on - month change of -8.8%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 6,063,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.5% [25][27] - **Zinc Concentrate**: The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 618,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton [11][27][29] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of -7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was -16,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -148.9% and a month - on - month change of -31.5%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 242,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -48.9%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 536,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -2.3% and a month - on - month change of -6.3%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 7,076,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.2% [33][35] 04 - Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Industries**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11][39] - **Apparent Demand**: In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 553,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -8.7% and a month - on - month change of -8.5%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,960,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [41] 05 - Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report presents multiple charts related to zinc ingot factory inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [45][47][49] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a shortage of -16,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a surplus of 116,000 tons. In October 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55] 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 30,000 tons. On January 22, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton [63] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [66] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 positions in Shanghai zinc were only slightly net long. For LME zinc, the net long position of investment funds increased, while the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with the night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closing at 3,124 yuan and 3,288 yuan respectively. The iron - water production is expected to decline slightly this week, rebar production will increase, and hot - rolled coil production will decrease. The industry is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Rebar demand has a significant seasonal decline, while hot - rolled coil demand has a relatively small decline. Recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. Consider taking profits on long positions of the steel - ore ratio when the price is high and continue to hold long positions of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3,050 - 3,250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,200 - 3,350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron - ore contract oscillated, with weak price rebound. Support factors for iron ore are reversing. Iron - water复产 falls short of expectations, the negotiation deadlock may change, and steel - mill restocking is gradually being realized. The supply side shows a decline in the global shipment volume of iron ore, and the shipment center has dropped. The demand side indicates that iron - water production remains flat this week, and the port clearance volume has started to decline seasonally, suppressing the pre - holiday iron - water复产 height. Steel - mill profitability has dropped significantly, and the subsequent iron - water复产 space is restricted. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel - mill inventory is increasing at a slower pace. Iron ore is facing a situation of both weak supply and demand, and its price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot market is currently stable. After the price adjustment, coke production is affected by coking coal, and coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. Steel mills are gradually resuming production after the New Year's Day, iron - water production has slightly increased, and steel prices have rebounded at a low level. Overall inventory has slightly increased, and coke supply - demand has improved. Some coke enterprises are starting to resist price cuts and initiate price increases, but the post - holiday market will be loose again, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,600 - 1,800 yuan. Coking coal futures oscillated at a low level. The spot auction price in Shanxi mostly increased, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. The supply side is in the复产 stage, and the demand side is at a low level. With downstream restocking, overall inventory has slightly increased. The post - holiday market supply - demand is expected to be loose, with a bearish view on single - side trading in the range of 1,000 - 1,200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, but the absolute value is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand side indicates that iron - water复产 may fall short of expectations, and non - steel demand has weakened. The inventory is still at a high level but is declining month - on - month. The cost side shows that alloy manufacturers are starting to replenish manganese ore, which supports the manganese ore price. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 5,300 - 5,800 yuan. Ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply side shows a slight decline in production, and the demand side also shows weakness. The high inventory still exerts pressure on the price, and the price is expected to fall, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, while futures prices had slight increases or decreases. The spreads between different contracts also changed slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar was stable, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the production of five major steel products increased slightly, rebar production increased by 4.9%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.8%, rebar inventory increased by 3.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material transaction volume decreased by 6.3%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.5%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron - ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron - ore varieties at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 0.4% [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9%, the global shipment volume decreased by 7.9%, and the national monthly import volume increased by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 1.0%, the national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.7%, the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases or decreases. The coking profit decreased by 16 [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions remained unchanged [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 2.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7%, and the port inventory increased by 4.2% [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed little change or slight increases. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 3.84 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal CIF price increased by 0.8%, and the Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 3.9% [5]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.1% [5]. Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2%, and the coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 2.6%, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.04%, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.24% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 1.04%, and the spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of change. The spreads between different regions and the main contract also changed [6]. Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 0.54%, and the spot prices in different regions remained unchanged [6]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in different origins showed little change or slight decreases. The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.0%, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 4.4% [6]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 35.6%, the arrival volume increased by 38.84%, and the port clearance volume decreased by 2.7% [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.34%, and the ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.34% [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand increased by 1.2%, the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.94%, the daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.6%, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.04% [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 5.44%, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises remained unchanged [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, domestic demand is weak, and prices have fully factored in the weak demand. The decline in production and the accumulation of raw materials have led to a weakening of raw material prices, and the recent cost reduction may cause the steel price center to shift downwards. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar price spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is constrained by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resumption of iron - making production, macro - level narratives, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations need to be monitored. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate widely, with a recommended trading range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, after the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and are considering production cuts to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a price increase, which is expected to be implemented. The futures price of coke has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the decline of coking coal. It is recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - For coking coal, although there is a demand for spot restocking before the Spring Festival, the futures price has already factored in the increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose. It is also recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is a lack of upward momentum at the industrial level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level and policy - related narratives. - Ferromanganese: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses the price in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined, except for the 01 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production varied, and the profits of most regions showed an upward trend [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, a rise of 0.1%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Trading and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume decreased by 1.0 to 8.5, a decline of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, a rise of 3.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot, warehouse - receipt costs, and price indices mostly declined. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also decreased [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decline of 8.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decline of 7.9%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, a rise of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.1 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, a rise of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2 days to 21 days, a rise of 10.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a slight upward trend, while the basis of some contracts decreased. The coking profit decreased, while the coal - mine profit increased [5]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The production of raw coal and clean coal in sample coal mines also decreased slightly [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed mixed trends [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with all links in the supply chain accumulating inventory [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese declined slightly, and the spot prices of most regions also decreased [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different trends, and the production profits generally decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of ferromanganese remained stable. The production start - up rates of both decreased [6]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the iron - making production and blast - furnace start - up rate also decreased [6]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the average available days of inventory also decreased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in January, with trading mainly within a range. The price movement is likely to be limited in both upward and downward directions in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Review: Thread Iron Ore Strong, Coking Coal and Coke Weak - **Spot Market**: In December, the prices of black commodities showed a divergent trend. Among finished products, rebar prices rose while hot-rolled coil prices fell, narrowing the spread between them. Among raw materials, scrap steel prices declined slightly, coking coal and coke prices weakened significantly (coking coal dropped 12.5%), and iron ore prices were strong, rising by $2.5 per ton [12]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of black futures first declined and then rebounded in a V-shaped pattern. Rebar was stronger than hot-rolled coil, and the spread between them decreased. Iron ore was significantly stronger than coking coal and coke in the main contracts. The overall commodity market also showed a divergent trend, with the non-ferrous metals sector being notably strong [15][19]. 02. Outlook: Entering the Inventory Accumulation Period, Focus on Inventory Increase - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and there were obvious internal differences within the Fed. The inflation in the US has declined, and the unemployment rate has risen. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching the highest level in 30 years [26]. - **Domestic Economy**: Consumption and imports and exports performed well, but the decline in investment widened. In 2025, from January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6% year-on-year. However, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [30]. - **Infrastructure Demand**: In November, the data for broad - based infrastructure investment was weak, with a year - on - year decline of 11.91%. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed measures to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize [35]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The real estate market has not stopped declining. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and other real estate indicators such as construction area and sales area also showed significant declines [37]. - **Manufacturing Demand**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range, with the production index and new order index showing significant increases [45]. - **Import and Export Demand**: In 2025, from January to November, China's steel exports reached 107.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that export license management for some steel products would be implemented starting from January 1, 2026 [49]. - **Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, and rebar production was 17.295 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [55]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: In December, the demand for rebar weakened month - on - month, but the production decline was greater, and inventory was smoothly depleted. In January, steel mills are expected to resume production, while demand will seasonally weaken, and rebar will enter the inventory accumulation period [57]. 03. Strategy: Maintain a Volatile Pattern, Trade within a Range - In December, steel prices first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, basically the same as at the end of November. The raw material prices showed a pattern of iron ore > steel > coking coal and coke. In January, the market may be in a policy vacuum period. The price of rebar is expected to have limited upward and downward space, and it is difficult to break away from the volatile pattern in the short term, so trading within a range is recommended [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel price center has risen, rebar basis has weakened, and hot-rolled coil basis has remained stable. Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction. The inventory reduction is acceptable under the influence of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has a better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level. After the production cut of hot-rolled coils, the inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices have rebounded from the low level, but the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will maintain a range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coils will maintain a range of 3150 - 3350. The 1 - 5 positive spread of rebar can continue to be held; the long position in the rebar - iron ore ratio arbitrage can be held [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated. In terms of news, Beijing introduced relevant policies to optimize and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing purchase qualifications and reducing the down - payment ratio for second - home purchases with provident fund loans. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year - end production rush of the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value is at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the molten iron production continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. According to SMM statistics, the blast furnace maintenance volume increased by 0.01 million tons week - on - week last week and will decrease by 2.99 million tons week - on - week next week. Steel mills may resume production, but the resumption strength is expected to be not strong. In terms of inventory, the inventory increased significantly on a week - on - week basis on Monday. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation result will determine when to address the high - inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation, the molten iron trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is difficult to lead to a trend - like decline, while the price is obviously suppressed by the high inventory above. As the steel mill production resumption increases, considering the limited downward space of molten iron and the raw material restocking demand, it is expected that the iron ore price may rebound slightly. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range trading on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coal mine shipment has improved to some extent, the daily production has decreased slightly, the coal mine has accumulated inventory due to slow sales, and the coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures. At the end of the year, the mines are rushing to ship. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, leading to more maintenance, the molten iron production has declined, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has slightly decreased from a medium level, and the coke supply - demand has weakened. The coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the coking coal decline space. Strategically, after the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the expected - driven rebound is difficult to sustain. The long position in the coke 2605 contract should be closed for profit [5] Silicon Iron - Yesterday, the silicon iron futures fluctuated with a narrowing range. In terms of news, a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shenmu was shut down, reducing the daily production of 75 - silicon by 100 tons. A 45000kva silicon iron furnace in a Baotou enterprise was restarted, increasing the daily production of 72 - silicon by 120 tons. The production of a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shaanxi was affected, with a daily production reduction of 100 - 120 tons, and the production suspension time is to be determined. On the supply side, last week, the production reduction of silicon iron expanded, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to ease the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. The subsequent focus is on the supply change. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified, but the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking and ferroalloy production will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the national iron and steel production will decline, but the downstream restocking will increase at the end of the month, yet the downstream's acceptance of high prices is poor. In terms of exports, there are many orders overseas, but the high - price acceptance is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea still has an impact. In terms of cost, the semi - coke price has slightly declined, and the low - cost power regions have a relative advantage. Looking forward to the future, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is still difficult to resolve, but the production reduction expectation has been partially priced in, and the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, so the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production reduction has already affected the price, and the cost side should focus on the coal price change. In the short term, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in a range, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700 [6] Silicon Manganese - Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures fluctuated. In terms of news, a high - silicon manganese plant in Inner Mongolia recently converted 2 ore - smelting furnaces to produce silicon manganese 6517, and the subsequent specific production situation depends on the actual production of the factory. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas has decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the production in the low - cost areas is relatively stable, and there is still a certain expectation of capacity reduction in the Inner Mongolia area recently. The southern main production areas maintain production cuts. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and although the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified to some extent, the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon manganese will maintain a contraction pattern. The steel mills' price - pressing sentiment is strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remains at a high - level, and the insufficient production - cut strength results in a limited year - on - year and month - on - month inventory reduction. The supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is firm, and the quotes of some overseas mines for January have been raised. The electricity price is basically stable, and the short - term manganese ore inventory provides certain support for the cost. Overall, silicon manganese is in a situation where its own supply is in excess, but the overall situation is relatively balanced. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicon manganese price. The key in the future lies in the production - cut amplitude, the end - of - year winter restocking of steel mills, and the raw material restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has been priced in to some extent, and there is no clear signal of a significant rebound. It is expected that the subsequent price will still operate weakly, but the trend - like decline amplitude is limited. Strategically, it is advisable to consider shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, mainly for short - term trading [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 8 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton, 3180 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3229 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 3167 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production decreased by 2.4 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. - The production of the five major steel products decreased by 8.3 tons to 798.0 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The rebar production increased by 2.9 tons to 181.7 tons, an increase of 1.6%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.8 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 6.3%, and the converter production increased by 1.2 tons to 152.4 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.8 tons to 291.9 tons, a decrease of 5.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 37.3 tons to 1294.8 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The rebar inventory decreased by 27.0 tons to 452.5 tons, a decrease of 5.6%. - The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.4 tons to 390.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 8.6, an increase of 7.9%. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 4.4 to 835.3, a decrease of 0.5%. - The apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.5 to 208.6, an increase of 2.7%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 13.7 to 298.3, a decrease of 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.9 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 843.1 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively. The PB fines and Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.1 yuan/ton and 2.2 yuan/ton respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines decreased by 1.0 to 57.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. The 05 - contract basis of Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.2 to 63.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 5.7 tons to 313.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) compared with Monday increased by 130.2 tons to 15512.63 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 110.3 tons to 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton. - The coke 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1599 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1047 yuan/ton. - The coke 05 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1746 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton to 1132 yuan/ton [5] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 46.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. - The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. - The clean coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 900.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8 tons to 91.1 tons, an increase of 4.3%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.6 tons to 633.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 1036.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.3 tons to 805.0 tons, an increase of 1.3%. - The port inventory decreased by 5.5 tons to 175.7 tons, a decrease of 3.14% [5] Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 5656 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, causing the Shanghai zinc price to fluctuate widely. In the short term, the expected reduction in domestic smelter production and the continuous decline in domestic social inventories support the zinc price. However, the weakening consumption and continuous inventory build - up overseas put pressure on the LME zinc price, which in turn affects the Shanghai zinc price. Traders should focus on the start - up of domestic smelters and macro factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: In the mining sector, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have stabilized. The import window for zinc concentrate has reopened, and the price difference between imported and domestic zinc concentrates has narrowed, reducing the smelters' enthusiasm for domestic zinc concentrates. The trading volume of imported zinc ore has been light recently. On the smelting side, the reduction in zinc concentrate processing fees and lower zinc prices have shrunk the profits of most domestic smelters, and there is an expected further increase in the reduction of domestic refined zinc production in December [5]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. Domestic refined zinc consumption has gradually weakened as the consumption season approaches [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from December 11 and 3,500 tons from December 15. The continuous decline in domestic inventories provides some support for the zinc price [5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - **Single - side trading**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Arbitrage trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Market Data - The report mentions aspects such as spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai zinc, as well as social inventories, bonded area inventories, LME inventories, LME cancelled warrant ratios, and LME inventory distribution by region, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [7][13][16][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to October 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 10.4892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 737,600 tons or 7.56%. Overseas zinc concentrate production was 7.0222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 532,600 tons or 8.21%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 205,000 tons or 6.28%. In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. It is expected that December production will increase by 2.76% month - on - month to 320,000 tons [28]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: As of November, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 0.48 days year - on - year to 20.8 days, but has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in major domestic ports increased by 12,000 tons month - on - month to 312,000 tons [28][43]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 340,900 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.3489 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In November, the import volume is expected to recover [30]. - **Import Source**: In October 2025, the top three import sources were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%) [30]. 3.3.3 Domestic Ore Supply - Overall, domestic ore supply has decreased, and imported zinc concentrates are expected to decline. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrates in November may decrease [42]. 3.3.4 Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In December, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 2,000 yuan/ton. On December 19, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was adjusted down by 0.43 US dollars/dry ton to 50.13 US dollars/dry ton [47]. 3.3.5 Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to October 2025, global refined zinc production was 11.5147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 159,500 tons or 1.4%; consumption was 11.3905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 102,900 tons or 0.91%. There was a cumulative surplus of 124,200 tons. In October, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76%, and demand was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%, with a shortage of 600 tons [51]. 3.3.6 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 87.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06%. Large - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 91.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%; medium - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 85.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%; small - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 76.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.81% [54]. - **Production Volume**: In November, SMM's domestic refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. It is expected that December production will be 570,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.49% [55]. 3.3.7 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - **Import**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. - **Export**: In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, with a net import of 10,300 tons. The export volume is expected to increase in December, which will alleviate the domestic surplus situation to some extent [58][59]. 3.3.8 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. The report also mentions the raw material and finished product inventories of primary processing enterprises, but no specific data is provided [5][66][67]. - **End - use Industries**: The report covers real - estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [73][84][94][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains in a loose pattern, and downstream slaughterhouses' procurement is relatively smooth. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏量, and the supply pressure from large - scale pig farms is increasing. The downward space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. The second - fattening is cautious to enter the market, and there is no selling pressure from small and medium - sized farmers for now. The futures market is slightly at a premium to the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, and sentiment has a greater impact, but the demand lacks highlights, and the tug - of - war between upstream and downstream continues. The logic of capacity reduction in the futures market is still being traded. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can be held, and the spot market still exerts pressure, so the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether the procurement of US soybeans can meet the arrival of soybeans in China in March. Continue to pay attention to the trends of domestic procurement of US and Brazilian soybeans. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, it is dragged down by the potential negative factor of inventory increasing to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of the US soybean oil futures in the external market. The Malaysian palm oil may fluctuate horizontally around 4,100 ringgit in the short term. Pay close attention to the impact of production, export, and inventory news on the market. The Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a weak and volatile trend, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan, and there is a possibility and risk of a short - term break below. Pay close attention to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can stop falling effectively in the range of 8,350 - 8,500 yuan and then strengthen again following the Malaysian palm oil trend. For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry for soybean oil remains resilient. In the short term, due to the progress in the US - Russia negotiation, the decline in international crude oil may drag down the CBOT soybean oil, and there is some room for correction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, with an estimated import volume of 9.5 million tons in December. Factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the domestic soybean oil supply pattern remains abundant. Some traders are more willing to sell, which drags down the basis quotation, but the basis quotation has limited short - term fluctuation space due to the support of soybean import costs and traders' procurement costs [5]. Corn Industry - In the corn market, the arrival volume in the Northeast region continues to shrink, and the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks at all levels increases. Coupled with policy support for storage and the rising futures and port prices, the prices in the production area are pushed up. In the North China region, farmers sell for profit, and the external transportation increases slightly. The number of arriving vehicles remains high, and the price fluctuates slightly. Overall, the corn supply is in a short - term tight situation. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, and deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory, and their long - term enthusiasm for building inventories is not high. In summary, the short - term supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged, and the strong spot price in the Northeast region drives the futures price to a new high. Pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes, as a recovery may limit the price increase space [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower. Although the sugar price rebounded to some extent after reaching a five - year low last month, the expectation of a global sugar surplus this year limits the price increase. After the Indian government allowed sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 26 season, more than 100,000 tons of spot contracts have been signed and the transportation has started. Due to abundant rainfall this year, the sugarcane crushing work in India is in full swing. As of November 30, 2025, the national sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production are expected to increase significantly compared with last year. Overall, the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led to a decline in the price of Yunnan sugar, and the impact of low - price sugar has also spread to the processed sugar and beet sugar fields. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak and volatile trend [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell to the lowest level in more than a week due to the dismal export sales report and the weak market sentiment. The USDA export sales report shows that the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year decreased by 39% compared with the previous week and 51% compared with the average of the previous four weeks. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming USDA weekly export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report. In the domestic market, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is completely finished, and the acquisition in the northern part is basically over, while the acquisition volume in the southern part is shrinking. As the cottonseed resources decrease, the acquisition price continues to fall. The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton spot is sluggish, but the pre - sales are being delivered one after another, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The spot sales basis is firm, and there is strong support for the Zhengzhou cotton price. In summary, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [12]. Egg Industry - Based on the previous chick replenishment and the base of last month's inventory, the number of laying hens in the laying period is likely to decline to some extent in December. Although the current inventory is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The market trading is dull, the downstream procurement has not started, the terminal consumption remains weak, and traders are not enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly purchasing on demand. The average inventory in the production and circulation links is about 1.06 days and 1.14 days respectively, and each link maintains a rigid - demand inventory. The egg supply is basically normal, the downstream digestion speed is slow, most traders have low confidence in the future market, the inventory in each link increases slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that the egg futures price will maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis increased by 64.58% to - 82; the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.46% to 11,870 yuan/ton; the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.91% to 11,385 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 11.49% to - 485; the main contract position decreased by 1.34% to 90,529; the number of warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 85 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.42% to 210,923; the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg; the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg; the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg; the weekly average slaughter weight increased by 0.32% to 129.22 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 8.90% to - 148 yuan/head; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 6.05% to - 249 yuan/head; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [2]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,060 yuan/ton; the price of M2605 decreased by 0.49% to 2,833 yuan/ton; the basis of M2605 increased by 6.57% to 227; the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot is m2601 - 20; the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 7.5% to 49; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 54.4% to 23,830 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.42% to 2,390 yuan/ton; the price of RM2605 decreased by 0.58% to 2,395 yuan/ton; the basis of RM2605 increased by 44.44% to - 5; the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 8.81% to 729; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [4]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.82% to 4,105 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean contract increased by 17.09% to - 199; the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,950 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean No. 2 contract decreased by 0.32% to 3,770 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract increased by 6.67% to 192; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 0.77% to 15,766 [4]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remained unchanged at - 112; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2.99% to - 2; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 7.10% to 2.91; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract increased by 0.58% to 2.80; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 1.52% to 670; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged at 438 [4]. Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.58% to 8,570 yuan/ton; the price of Y2601 decreased by 0.39% to 8,254 yuan/ton; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 5.39% to 316; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 260; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 111.96% to 18,269 [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.92% to 8,640 yuan/ton; the price of P2601 decreased by 0.73% to 8,666 yuan/ton; the basis of P2601 decreased by 160.00% to - 26; the basis quotation of Guangdong in January is 01 + 50; the import cost of Guangzhou Port in January decreased by 1.66% to 9,042.2 yuan/ton; the import profit of Guangzhou Port in January increased by 19.12% to - 376 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 28.41% to 452 [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.80% to 9,970 yuan/ton; the price of Ol601 decreased by 0.96% to 9,618 yuan/ton; the basis of Ol601 increased by 3.83% to 352; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 270; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792 [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4.17% to 184; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil increased by 11.76% to - 30; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 20.96% to 181; the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30.00% to - 70; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.57% to - 626; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 2.10% to 1,400; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 4.28% to 1,364 [5]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 increased by 1.24% to 2,287 yuan/ton; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.43% to 2,310 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 43.90% to 23; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 76.67% to - 7; the bulk grain price at Shekou increased by 0.41% to 2,460 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 59; the CIF price decreased by 0.11% to 2,096 yuan/ton; the import profit increased by 3.51% to 364; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 11.52% to 1,083; the position increased by 4.76% to 2,346,433; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.51% to 58,664 [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 1.09% to 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 100.00% to 0; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 39.29% to - 34; the 01 spread between starch and corn on the disk remained unchanged at 303; the profit of Shandong starch remained unchanged at 1; the position increased by 0.73% to 333,476; the number of warehouse receipts was not available [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 0.71% to 5,328 yuan/ton; the price of Sugar 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 5,263 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.07% to 14.91 cents/pound; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.80% to - 4; the position of the main contract decreased by 0.28% to 329,240; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0; the number of effective forecasts remained at 183 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5,390 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5,370 yuan/ton; the basis in Nanning increased by 3.25% to 127; the basis in Kunming increased by 3.88% to 107; the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.36% to 4,106 yuan/ton; the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.38% to 5,203 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased by 1.15% to - 1,284; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased by 5.08% to - 187 [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guang

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: With dovish Fed statements and reduced geopolitical risks, along with tight copper raw - material supply and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 86,400 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [8]. - **Lead**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. - **Zinc**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract being 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton and for LME tin being 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [14]. - **Nickel**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2605 contract being 93,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks rose, the offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices oscillated upwards. LME copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 156,500 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 40,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to less than 800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: With dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight copper raw - material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 542,000 tons, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline [7]. - **Strategy**: With low global aluminum ingot inventories and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.13% to 17,063 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 0.5 to 1,985.5 dollars/ton. Domestic lead ingot inventories rose from a low level, and LME lead inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: With increasing lead supply and weakening exports of lead - acid batteries, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.03% to 22,362 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 3,007.5 dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Despite short - term tightness in zinc ore due to winter stockpiling, the zinc industry remains in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.89% to 298,500 yuan/ton. Tin smelter production in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, but raw - material supply was tight. Tin demand in emerging fields provided support, and social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal alleviation of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.95% to 117,260 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel - iron prices continued to fall [16]. - **Strategy**: With strong supply pressure and weak demand, nickel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.50% to 94,469 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 1.03% to 96,340 yuan [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence between improving fundamentals and concerns about off - season demand, along with large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 26, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,747 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.34 to 257,900 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With the recovery of overseas ore shipments and over - capacity in the smelting end, but prices approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.40% to 12,455 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some markets increased, and social inventory decreased to 1.0717 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Although the spot market has seen a slight price increase and improved trading, due to weak demand in related fields, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.1% to 20,695 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions rebounded, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly [29]. - **Strategy**: Supported by cost and supply - side policies, but with average demand, its price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [29].