一、行情回顾与展望 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 ...

Group 1 - The company's photovoltaic materials business turned profitable in Q3 2025, reporting a profit of 960 million RMB, aided by a significant increase in polysilicon prices since late July [1] - The average selling price of granular silicon reached 37,300 RMB per ton in Q3 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 810 RMB, while production cash costs decreased to 24,200 RMB per ton [1] - The company's silicon wafer business transitioned from severe losses in Q2 2025 to a slight profit, with inventory impairment being partially reversed due to rising product prices [1] Group 2 - The company announced a fundraising of 5.392 billion HKD through a share issuance at 1.15 HKD per share, with specific allocations for polysilicon capacity adjustments, R&D, and debt repayment [2] - A new national standard for polysilicon energy consumption is expected to significantly reduce effective production capacity in China to approximately 2.4 million tons, a 31.4% decrease from the existing capacity of 3.5 million tons [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting net profit forecasts upward while slightly lowering earnings per share estimates for 2026/27 due to share dilution, with a target price revised to 1.54 HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a 13.55% reduction in the target price for Xinyi Solar (00986), lowering it from HKD 4.28 to HKD 3.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to favorable policy changes in the photovoltaic supply side [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to report a profit of RMB 750 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 58.8%, which exceeds the forecast median of 6% [1] - The sales volume of photovoltaic glass increased by 17.5%, but the average selling price dropped by 21%, leading to a fixed asset impairment charge of RMB 310 million for idle furnaces [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined since May, but the production capacity in mainland China has decreased from 100,000 tons at the end of May to 89,000 tons currently, indicating potential for further large-scale production cuts [1] - It is anticipated that prices will bottom out and begin to recover starting in August [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the target price for Xinyi Solar (00986) has been lowered by 13.55%, from HKD 4.28 to HKD 3.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to favorable policy developments in the photovoltaic supply side [1] - The company is expected to report a profit of RMB 750 million in the first half of 2025, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 58.8%, exceeding the forecast median of 6% [1] - Sales volume of photovoltaic glass increased by 17.5%, but the average selling price dropped by 21%, leading to a fixed asset impairment charge of RMB 310 million for idle furnaces [1] Group 2 - The price of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined since May, but the production capacity in mainland China has decreased from 100,000 tons at the end of May to 89,000 tons currently, indicating potential for further large-scale production cuts [1] - The report anticipates that prices will bottom out and begin to recover starting in August [1]