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建信期货多晶硅日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2511 was 48,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.13%. The future market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. The n - type re -投料's transaction price ranges from 45,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%. Polysilicon production will increase to 125,000 tons in August and enter the stage of production restriction and sales control in September. The downstream actively replenishes inventory to buffer the pressure of shrinking terminal demand, but domestic demand is still in a weak stage after the "rush - installation" in the first half of the year. Policy - driven factors have entered a rational stage, and after August 19, the policy implementation is expected to enter a vacuum period, which will suppress the risk appetite of long - position funds, and the high - level warehouse receipts are also increasing, putting pressure on the market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2511 was 48,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.13%. The trading volume was 502,410 lots, the open interest was 154,537 lots, and the net increase was 17,059 lots [4] 3.2 Future Market Outlook - The n - type re -投料's transaction price ranges from 45,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%. Polysilicon production will increase to 125,000 tons in August and enter the stage of production restriction and sales control in September. The downstream actively replenishes inventory to buffer the pressure of shrinking terminal demand. However, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity in July was only 11GW, and domestic demand is still in a weak stage after the "rush - installation" in the first half of the year. Policy - driven factors have entered a rational stage. After August 19, the policy implementation is expected to enter a vacuum period, which will suppress the risk appetite of long - position funds. At the same time, the high - level warehouse receipts are also increasing, putting pressure on the market, and the market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations [4] 3.3 Market News - On August 27, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,880 lots, a net increase of 10 lots compared with the previous trading day. From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the newly - installed capacity from January to July was 223.25GW. The newly - installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—新一轮签单持续 价格暂时持稳(2025年3月12日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-03-12 13:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is currently stable in terms of pricing, with various types of polysilicon maintaining steady transaction prices [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 39,000 to 46,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton [1] - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon ranges from 38,000 to 41,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 39,000 yuan/ton, while p-type polysilicon has a price range of 32,000 to 36,000 yuan/ton, averaging 34,000 yuan/ton [1] - Major polysilicon enterprises are currently in the order signing phase, with seven companies reporting transactions for n-type polysilicon this week [1] - Despite some price increases from leading companies to downstream clients, actual transaction prices have remained stable, indicating a cautious market outlook [1] - The current inventory levels of polysilicon are high, making it difficult for price increases to be transmitted to the silicon material end [1] - The production motivation for most operating companies remains insufficient as the signing prices do not cover production costs, leading to a stable production forecast for the next two months [1] Group 2 - As of now, all operating polysilicon companies in China are generally running at reduced capacity, with one company undergoing maintenance and at least two companies slightly increasing their operating rates [2] - The overall production forecast for this month is maintained at approximately 97,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in output [2]