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瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 08:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon faces significant pressure, with downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling reduced and demand marginally weakening. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to see a continued decline in overall output, and cell enterprises also have production cut plans. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is still in the de - stocking phase, which may drag down the futures' upward range. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 39,270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 885 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 97,187 lots, a decrease of 13,360 lots. The price difference between August and September for polysilicon is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 31,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 960 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is 730 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polysilicon (re - feed material) is 33 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 21.67, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of July 8, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type compact material, N - type re - feed material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 31 yuan/kg, 32 yuan/kg, 34 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, and on the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, but the market's expectation of new capacity launch is increasing [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The demand side of polysilicon is under great pressure, and the inventory is at a high level. The polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises has not been fully digested, suppressing market prices. In the short term, polysilicon is in the de - stocking phase, and the futures' upward range may be affected. One should be cautious of high - level trading and corporate hedging, and avoid excessive chasing of high prices [2]
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—硅料成交较少,价格维持稳定(2025年4月2日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-04-02 09:03
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon remains stable this week, with various types showing specific price ranges and average transaction prices, indicating a cautious market sentiment among downstream buyers [1]. Price Summary - N-type re-investment material transaction price range is 39,000-46,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 CNY/ton - N-type granular silicon transaction price range is 38,000-41,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 39,000 CNY/ton - P-type polysilicon transaction price range is 32,000-36,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,000 CNY/ton [1]. Market Activity - The number of transactions for polysilicon is low this week, with most companies' orders not yet finalized - Only four companies have completed transactions for N-type polysilicon, reflecting a significant wait-and-see attitude from downstream buyers and a low willingness to purchase [1]. Inventory and Pricing Pressure - Due to an industry inventory of 400,000 tons, some companies are facing considerable shipping pressure, leading to strong price-cutting motives from downstream [1]. - Currently, there has not been a large-scale price adjustment, and actual transaction prices will need to be determined after the holiday [1]. Impact of External Events - The earthquake in Myanmar on March 28 has affected the single crystal pulling capacity in Yunnan and Sichuan, causing delays in some polysilicon orders [1]. - There is an expectation of a slowdown in polysilicon inventory reduction in April due to these disruptions [1]. Production Status - All operating polysilicon companies in China are currently running at reduced capacity, with no new shutdowns or maintenance plans reported [1]. - According to April production plans, a small amount of new capacity is expected to be released, with an overall production forecast of around 100,000 tons [1].
【安泰科】多晶硅周评—新一轮签单持续 价格暂时持稳(2025年3月12日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-03-12 13:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is currently stable in terms of pricing, with various types of polysilicon maintaining steady transaction prices [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 39,000 to 46,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton [1] - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon ranges from 38,000 to 41,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 39,000 yuan/ton, while p-type polysilicon has a price range of 32,000 to 36,000 yuan/ton, averaging 34,000 yuan/ton [1] - Major polysilicon enterprises are currently in the order signing phase, with seven companies reporting transactions for n-type polysilicon this week [1] - Despite some price increases from leading companies to downstream clients, actual transaction prices have remained stable, indicating a cautious market outlook [1] - The current inventory levels of polysilicon are high, making it difficult for price increases to be transmitted to the silicon material end [1] - The production motivation for most operating companies remains insufficient as the signing prices do not cover production costs, leading to a stable production forecast for the next two months [1] Group 2 - As of now, all operating polysilicon companies in China are generally running at reduced capacity, with one company undergoing maintenance and at least two companies slightly increasing their operating rates [2] - The overall production forecast for this month is maintained at approximately 97,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in output [2]