Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, and new energy metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, polysilicon and lithium carbonate will alternately lead the rise of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price level. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but demand expectations are also growing, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The annual supply - demand inflection point for lithium carbonate may occur earlier. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply - demand remains weak, and silicon prices show an oscillatory trend. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory". [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 22, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of November 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. In November, industrial silicon exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. [6] - **Main Logic**: In terms of the fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon decreased in December. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon was weak, and the demand boost from aluminum alloy was limited. Although the industry inventory decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand weakened simultaneously, and the inventory continued to accumulate in December, with the fundamentals remaining weak. [6] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, but the coal price has recovered, and market sentiment fluctuates. It is believed that the price of industrial silicon will show an oscillatory trend. [7] Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 22, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was stable week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE remained unchanged. In November, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 18% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 62% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The GZFE added new registered brands and adjusted the minimum order quantity for some polysilicon futures contracts. [7][8] - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of state - reserve purchase has heated up again, and prices continue to be highly volatile. In the supply side, production in the southwest region decreased during the dry season, and the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. In the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high but overdrew the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. Although the fundamentals are weak, the anti - involution policy expectation provides strong price support at the bottom. [10] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. With the establishment of the platform company, market sentiment has improved, and the price of polysilicon may show an oscillatory and slightly bullish trend in the short term. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Demand remains strong, and lithium prices continue to rise. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [11] - **Information Analysis**: On December 22, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.68%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, as did the average price of spodumene concentrate index. The number of warehouse receipts increased. The GZFE made adjustments to lithium carbonate futures delivery warehouses, and the total warehouse capacity increased by 7,000 tons. [11][12] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is also strong. Market trading focuses on the resumption time of Jiaxiawo Mine and the off - season demand. The resumption expectation has been postponed, which is a major positive factor. There are differences in the market's expectation of January demand, and the social inventory decline has slowed down. In the short term, there are few negative factors, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, attention should be paid to the possible emotional fluctuations caused by the increase in warehouse capacity. [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish. [12] 2.行情监测 - Not provided with specific content in the text. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index was 2,634.42, up 1.34%. - The industrial product index was 2,226.50, up 0.79%. - The PPI commodity index was 1,379.81, up 0.63%. [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 22, 2025, the index was 493.12, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 6.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.57%. [55]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate alternately leading the rally in new energy metals. In the medium - to - short - term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policies in Nigeria over the weekend supported lithium carbonate prices. Polysilicon prices initially declined due to the increase in registered brands but were later supported by the growing expectation of silicon material storage policies. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, potentially raising the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but the demand expectation is also increasing, narrowing the expected supply - demand surplus. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may occur earlier [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **View**: Cost support is weakening, and silicon prices are continuously falling. The medium - term outlook is that the price will show an oscillatory trend [5][6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of December 10, the spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory increased by 1.3% month - on - month. In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. In October, the export volume decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The significant decline in coal prices has weakened cost support, leading to a decline in silicon prices. In terms of fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon in December is expected to decline. The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and the inventory accumulation trend continues, resulting in a weakening of the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of storage is rising again, and polysilicon prices continue to show high volatility. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [7][9][10]. - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 10, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In October 2025, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A new polysilicon platform company was registered, and new brands were added to the futures registration [7]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of polysilicon storage is rising, leading to high - volatility prices. The demand for polysilicon has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and the expectation of anti - involution policies is still fermenting, so the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and lithium prices are experiencing greater volatility. The medium - term outlook is high - level oscillation [10][11]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 10, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.43%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. A lithium project was put into operation [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is decreasing in December. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo may cause price fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain strong in December, and the demand is currently good but needs to be monitored in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. Group 4: Market Index Information - On December 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the special indexes such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 1.39% on the day, decreased by 1.44% in the past 5 days, increased by 2.49% in the past month, and increased by 6.81% since the beginning of the year [53][54].