展望2026年，他表示全球锂资源供给正经历结构性调整。纵观全球，智利未来增长依赖SQM单一项目，阿根廷产能将于2025–2026年集中释放，但 随后增速将显著放缓；澳洲、巴西受资本开支放缓与债务压力制约，增长乏力。非洲虽具潜力，但产量高度依赖价格与政策。 "中国本土供给正呈现多元提速态势，"杨诚笑强调，"锂云母开发有序推进，西藏盐湖项目进程加快，新疆、湖南等地锂矿项目持续贡献增 量。"他预计，2026年全球锂供给增长将主要来自中国本土、非洲地区锂矿和阿根廷盐湖。中国在全球锂供应中的占比有望从24%提升至28%，或 将成为全球第一大锂资源供应国，重塑全球供应链格局。 11月25日，2025第二届中国国际锂业大会在四川成都成功举办。本次会议由中国有色金属工业协会主办，以"锂聚全球，链动未来"为主题，聚 焦"稳供给、强链条、促创新、谋共赢"四大核心议题，同来自全球锂电产业的政府代表、专家学者、企业嘉宾及国际机构负责人等400多位嘉宾， 共商在能源转型背景下锂电产业的发展路径与协作机制，共筑应对行业周期挑战和可持续发展的新格局。中国有色金属工业协会党委书记、会长 葛红林，四川省人大常委会副主任何礼，中国盐湖工业集团有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged significantly, reaching a peak of 94,760 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.50%, indicating strong market momentum and investor interest in lithium-related stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium battery concept stocks experienced a substantial rise, with Rongbai Technology hitting a 20% limit up, and several other stocks like Furui Shares, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Rongjie Shares also reaching their daily limits [1] - Dazhi Futures analyst Zhang Tingyu predicts a strong supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate in 2026, with global supply expected to reach 2.078 million tons and demand at 1.977 million tons, indicating a significant improvement in the surplus compared to this year [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - The bottom for lithium carbonate prices is believed to have been established in 2025, with expectations for a gradual upward trend in prices, although volatility is anticipated [1] - Key factors to monitor in the supply side for 2026 include the permit renewal issues at Jiangxi Mica Mine and the potential acceleration of previously stalled projects due to price increases [1] Group 3: Demand Considerations - On the demand side, the continuation of subsidies for electric vehicles and the sales performance of commercial vehicles, particularly heavy trucks, will be critical [1] - In the energy storage sector, policies in regions like Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are crucial, with expectations that the installed capacity for independent energy storage in 2026 will likely exceed forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in lithium carbonate prices has brought the energy storage industry back into focus, with futures prices reaching a peak of 88,200 yuan/ton before entering a range-bound fluctuation [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of November 12, lithium carbonate futures for the 2601 contract closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.21% [1] - The current price fluctuations are attributed to a combination of news and demand-side factors, with supply-side sentiment disturbances gradually dissipating [1] - The release of a report on mining rights in Jiangxi Province, which valued the transfer at 247 million yuan, has contributed to a stabilization of market sentiment, despite the actual resumption of mining operations being uncertain until 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The focus in the lithium carbonate market has shifted from supply-side issues to demand-side factors, with analysts noting a significant improvement in the fundamentals [2] - As of the week ending November 6, lithium carbonate weekly production was approximately 21,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 454 tons, while weekly inventory decreased by over 3,400 tons to about 124,000 tons, indicating a faster pace of inventory reduction [2] - The increase in downstream orders for energy storage batteries has exceeded expectations, contributing to a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate rising nearly 90% in the past month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that the price trend of lithium carbonate will be primarily driven by demand factors, with the supply side capable of responding to market changes in a relatively short time [2] - Current market conditions indicate that the industry may continue to deplete inventory until the end of the year, with strong performance in futures markets expected to persist [3] - Despite positive fundamentals, high prices may impact downstream demand, necessitating caution regarding potential price corrections due to demand declines [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - term: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. With the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory in September. If subsequent production cuts are substantial and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may reverse, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2] Market Analysis Summary - On August 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 89,240 yuan/ton, with a 4.67% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,036,328 lots, and the open interest was 421,106 lots, up from 401,139 lots the previous day. The current basis was - 4,160 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,555 lots, a change of 70 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 - 86,700 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 - 83,000 yuan/ton, also up 1,900 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,035 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement enthusiasm continued to increase, and market activity enhanced. Due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with the output from salt lakes and spodumene increasing and the output from mica decreasing. The weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with an increase in intermediate - link inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [1] Strategy Summary - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. The mining end in Jiangxi is greatly affected, with large factories having stopped production and the resumption progress unknown. Other mines are required to complete relevant report writing by September 30, and the subsequent impact on production is uncertain. In addition, a lithium salt production enterprise in Qinghai may face the possibility of shutdown due to mining license issues. Based on the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory from September. If subsequent production cuts are large and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may change, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 11 to August 15, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading gains, while the European shipping index saw the largest decline [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71%, crude oil by 0.71%, and lithium carbonate rose by 12.92% [1] - The black metal sector saw slight fluctuations, with coking coal up by 0.24% and iron ore by 0.32%, while coking coal decreased by 0.26% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine due to expired mining licenses has raised concerns about lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant price increase [2] - Supply disruptions continue with the suspension of operations at the Qinghai Zhongxin Guoan salt lake, although the impact from the Yichun lithium mine is currently limited due to inventory levels [3] - In June, Chile exported approximately 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, with exports increasing by 43% month-on-month in July [3] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - In July, the demand for new energy vehicles and lithium batteries showed a slowdown in growth, but remains at high levels, with production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 142,256 tons, with a week-on-week reduction of 162 tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, and prices are expected to remain volatile until supply disruptions are resolved [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that supply-side factors will be the market focus, with emotional fluctuations driven by news rather than fundamental changes [5] - The next critical date for the market will be September 30, when a reserve verification report is due, which may influence production changes at smelting plants [5] - Long-term projections indicate that overseas lithium mines are raising production targets for FY2026, which may exert pressure on lithium carbonate prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of lithium carbonate is neutral. The supply side shows an increasing trend, with the production in July 2025 at 81,530 physical tons and a predicted production of 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July 2025 was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost side shows that the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern is turning to demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83,220 - 86,980 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.24%, higher than the historical average level. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 79,038 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, with a production profit of 825 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 82,676 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.28%, with a production loss of 4,848 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average level; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average level; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average level; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average level, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore (01) increased from 81,320 to 84,480, an increase of 3,160, or 3.89%. The price of lithium carbonate (04) increased from 78,880 to 82,540, an increase of 3,660, or 4.64% [14]. - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various products has also changed. For example, the basis of ternary materials (01) decreased from - 3,320 to - 3,480, a decrease of 160, or 4.82% [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also changed, with the import volume from Australia and other regions showing different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has also changed [28]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The production from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the total production have also shown different trends [37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite, recycled lithium carbonate from different sources, etc.) have changed over time. For example, the cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) have fluctuated, and the cost and profit of recycled lithium carbonate from different types of black powder have also shown different trends [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter, downstream, other, total) and lithium hydroxide (downstream, smelter, total) has changed over time. The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends [51]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells, the loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), and the export volume of lithium batteries have shown different trends [54]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary precursors have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [66]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand**: The price, production, cost, profit, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of different types of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type) has fluctuated, and the production, cost, profit, and inventory have also shown different trends [70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) have shown different trends, and the sales penetration rate and inventory have also changed [78].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Supply-side disruptions continue to ferment, and the market rises rapidly by the daily limit - Weekly report on lithium carbonate by Zhongtai Futures' Non-ferrous Metals & New Materials Team (July 27, 2025) [1] - Research Team: An Ran, Wang Haicong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 3: Core Views - In July, the overall incremental production from restarts exceeded the reduction from maintenance, but the suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry in the salt lake segment led to a decline in overall production. The downstream demand was mainly based on on-demand procurement, showing differentiation and overall performing better than expected. The price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly, but the high price suppressed downstream demand, and there was also speculative demand. If the production suspension is implemented, it will affect the supply-demand pattern, and the surplus volume will be significantly reduced. If the production suspension expectation is not fulfilled, the fundamental surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price of lithium carbonate will face a significant decline. In the short term, the price is boosted by news and shows emotional upward movement, and it will mainly fluctuate strongly until the expectation is verified. It is necessary to beware of the price decline risk caused by the failure of the production suspension expectation, and the short-term volatility will continue to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13] Group 4: Section Summaries Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - Supply: The overall incremental production from restarts in July exceeded the reduction from maintenance, but the suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry in the salt lake segment led to a 13.25% decline in salt lake production. The production at the mica end increased by 0.29%, and the production at the recycling end decreased by 0.35%. The import volume remained unchanged [12] - Demand: The weekly apparent demand decreased by 3.64%, and the available days of downstream inventory increased by 0.10%. The overall demand performance was better than expected [12] - Inventory: The lithium ore inventory at ports and warehouses decreased, while the overall inventory increased slightly. The inventory shifted from lithium salt plants to traders, and the surplus pattern continued to accumulate inventory. After the price rose rapidly, the warehouse receipts increased, but the growth rate still needed to be observed [12] - Cost and Profit: The cost of externally purchased spodumene and mica increased, and the profit of externally purchased spodumene decreased by 10.12%, while the profit of externally purchased mica increased by 1.93% [12] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - Lithium Carbonate Market: The report presents data on the futures and spot prices, basis, trading volume, and open interest of lithium carbonate [16] - Lithium Ore Prices: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica [16] - Lithium Carbonate Prices: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price difference between them, are provided. The production cost and profit of lithium carbonate are also analyzed [16] - Lithium Hydroxide Prices: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences are presented [16] - Cathode Material Prices: The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate are shown [16] - Power Battery Cell Prices: The prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells are provided [16] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - Lithium Concentrate: The import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, is analyzed, including cumulative and monthly data and their changes [62] - Lithium Carbonate: The production capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume, production volume by raw material, import and export volume, and total supply of lithium carbonate are presented [62] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - Apparent Demand: The apparent consumption of lithium carbonate is analyzed [100] - Real Demand: The production volume, monthly operating rate, and production volume by grade of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, manganese acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [100] - Terminal Demand: The production volume, shipment volume, inventory-to-sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries are analyzed. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and their penetration rate, as well as the winning bid scale and capacity of energy storage projects, are also provided [100] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - Weekly Inventory: The warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory of lithium carbonate are presented [194] - Monthly Inventory: The smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory of lithium carbonate on a monthly basis are analyzed [194] - Upstream and Downstream Inventory: The inventory of lithium ore, finished product inventory of lithium iron phosphate, and finished product inventory of ternary materials are provided [194]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,700 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2507 is 64,700 yuan, up 0.59%; Li2508 is 64,680 yuan, up 0.12%; Li2509 is 64,400 yuan, up 0.16%; Li2510 is 64,160 yuan, down 0.03%; Li2511 is 64,080 yuan, up 0.22% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 666 yuan, with a daily increase of 8 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 820 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1385 yuan, with a daily increase of 30 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4500 yuan, with a daily increase of 75 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5340 yuan, with a daily increase of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,950 yuan, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,955 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan, with no change [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1100 yuan, with a change of - 120 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of other sources (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 13,281 tons, with an increase of 626 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,506 yuan, and the profit is - 76 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 6886 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].