1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Affected by the news that Vanke might be bailed out, the real estate industry's expectations are being restored, and the prices of the black series have risen from their lows. After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded its balance - sheet last night, the overall sentiment is dovish, which is expected to boost the market. The previous decline in steel prices was mainly due to the fall of raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction. The downward driving force is not strong, but the overall demand is average with a year - on - year decline, and the falling iron - water production cycle suppresses raw material prices. Steel will maintain a volatile trend, with the focus on the 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan ranges for May contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be continued, and the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage should be exited [2] - **Iron Ore**: Stimulated by real estate利好 news, iron ore futures rebounded yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, iron - water production declined, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of the five major steel products, steel production, inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined seasonally. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, the port clearance volume decreased, and the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking ahead, as steel mills' iron - water production decreases and steel prices fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and iron ore valuation will decline. For strategies, hold a bearish view on iron ore futures with a volatile trend, and short the iron ore 2605 contract on rallies, with the operating range of 730 - 780 [6] - **Coke**: Coke futures rebounded yesterday. On the spot side, the second round of coke price cuts started on December 10 and is expected to be implemented on the 12th, with short - term price cut expectations still remaining, and port prices have fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coal types have continued to fall back, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal, coking profits have been restored, and the start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, steel prices have rebounded, steel mill profits have been restored, and there is an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - finding stage. For strategies, hold a bearish view on coke futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1450 - 1600, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures declined yesterday. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to fall, Mongolian coal quotes decreased, and the recent auction failure rate has remained at 30 - 50%. The power coal market has continued to decline, and the coal spot market has become more relaxed again. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily output has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to poor sales, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures down, and the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, iron - water production has declined, coking plants' start - up rate has slightly increased after profit recovery, and the market's inventory replenishment demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal - washing plants, ports, and ports of entry have increased inventory, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. In terms of policies, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main theme, and the over - capacity pattern continues. For strategies, coking coal spot prices continue to fall, the futures market has declined significantly, the main contract has shifted to coking coal 2605. Hold a bearish view on coking coal futures with a volatile trend, with the range of 1000 - 1150, and recommend long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, rebar spot in East China increased from 3260 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract rose from 3079 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The cost of steel billets increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 44 yuan to - 71 yuan [2] - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar production decreased by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1%, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.7 tons to 314.3 tons, a decline of 1.5% [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 400.4 tons, a decline of 0.1% [2] - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 2.2 to 11.4 tons, an increase of 23.5%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 11.0 tons to 217.0 tons, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.4 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 1.7% [2] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders all increased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased from 830.4 yuan/ton to 835.9 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 24.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.0 to - 42.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.0 to 18.5 [6] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3% [6] - **Demand**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decline of 2.0% [6] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decline of 5.0% [6] Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract increased by 13 to 1527, and the 05 contract increased by 24 to 1701. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 to - 54 [8] - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 tons to 625.3 tons, a decline of 0.0%. The port inventory decreased by 6.1 tons to 181.3 tons, a decline of 3.3% [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.2 tons to - 1.3 tons, an increase of 166.8% [8] Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 21 to 983, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 to 1070. The 01 - contract basis increased by 16 to 197, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 8 to 90. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [8] - **Supply**: The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean - coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [8] - **Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8] - **Inventory**: The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 20.1 tons to 127.6 tons, an increase of 18.7%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The 247 - steel - mill coking - coal inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 798.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 296.5 tons, an increase of 0.7% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the fluctuation range of rebar referring to 3000 - 3200 and that of hot-rolled coils referring to 3200 - 3350. The steel inventory continues to decline, mainly reflected in the strengthening of the basis and the increase in profits. Attention should be paid to the possible macro - expectation trading in the December Politburo meeting and the drag of coking coal on steel prices from the cost side. The long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage can be continued to hold, and the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can also be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will run weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to short iron ore at high prices on a single side, and the arbitrage suggestion is to conduct the 1 - 5 reverse spread of iron ore. Although there is support from downstream restocking and basis repair needs, considering the high price level, the market situation is still weak [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Both coke and coking coal futures are expected to run in a weakly volatile manner. For coke, the range reference is 1480 - 1630, and for coking coal, it is 950 - 1100. The arbitrage strategy for both is to go long on coke and short on coking coal [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased from 3175 to 3157 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The profits of different regions and varieties showed different trends, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20, and the North China rebar profit remaining unchanged at - 109 [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 to 829.0 tons, a decrease of 3.1%. The rebar output decreased by 16.8 to 189.3 tons, a decrease of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.7 to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 to 1365.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 to 503.8 tons, a decrease of 5.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly by 0.5 to 400.4 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 8.8 tons, a decrease of 6.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 to 864.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 11.0 to 217.0 tons, a decrease of 4.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5.4 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types generally declined, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajas fines dropping from 796.7 to 789.0 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore types increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 117.8 to 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 4.2%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 44.8 to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 8.5 to 318.5 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. The national monthly pig iron output and crude steel output also decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 63.4 to 15300.81 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 42.3 to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days, a decrease of 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of coke and coking coal futures and spot showed different trends. For example, the coke 01 contract price decreased from 1092 to 1056 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract price decreased from 1652 to 1585 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The weekly coke output increased slightly, and the weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. There were changes in the production status of some coal mines, with 3 mines suspending production and 4 mines resuming production [6]. Demand - The hot metal output decreased, and the demand for coke was affected. The coking profit was repaired, and the coking plant's operating rate increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory of coking plants increased, while the inventory of ports and steel mills decreased. The coking coal inventory of coking enterprises and steel mills decreased, while that of coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and ports increased [6].